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RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am not a tech guy. I wear mechanical watches not smart watches. I buy new phones/tablets when they no longer run. I think I will be perfectly content with a 2018 Tesla in 2033. Isn't that the point of Tesla? Not wasting resources? Isn't that the point of making the drivetrains last 1M miles and making the cars mostly of aluminum? No planned obsolescence? Junking a car in 10 years is awfully wasteful.
At least the AP/FSD computer is also upgradeable. The battery charges overnight. Don't really care how long it takes. As I get older I see less and less very long road trips in my future, so making faster and faster Superchargers less and less important to me. Even if long road trips become easier and easier to take in newer and newer Teslas. I just feel less inclination to do so.
I get apartment dwellers without access to overnight charging would highly value quicker and quicker Supercharging though. But I gather they will all be using Tesla Network exclusively using their neural linked internet devices
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sundaymorning
Active Member
People who don't take Cramer seriously have never seen a real time stock ticker in the AH when Mad Money comes on.
We'd be at 500 right now if you had a hype man like Cramer on your side. There would be no anti selling of SP and shorts would be second guessing themselves constantly.
JB on Mad Money would do wonders for TSLA.
Cramer is on Tesla's side.
~"If Elon can get money, he will win.
Musk is a promoter. He can get money.
People who buy the car buy the stock."
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thanks - Yes, he has come around on the stock already. Anyone in their right mind and with good intentions would, and he has.
I think my original suggestion was more about using Cramer's platform to refute FUD, and maybe even get rid of it forever, rather than create hype, which is a short-term phenomenon.
With a new technology, and battery technology, I don't think JB's words can remove FUD.
He talks to realtors and such about the future, but that is an audience already aligned.
JB is a smart, true believer. His words will reasonate with some. But not all.
Elon is the right face for the company. Second witnesses will have to be people from the ICE side. Like Cramer.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This is spot on. Super kudos.
Your post got me thinking about something. I think Volkswagen is probably the ICE maker that's trying hardest to turn around the ship to BEVs, propelled by the diesel scandal. Even they, however, are dragged by the usual corporate politics as a recent WSJ article laid out. Even if a new CEO sees the light, he/she still has to convince the executive team and a global corporation with tens of thousands of people. Anyone who's ever worked at an global corporation will tell you: this is no easy task, if at all possible.
IF, however, Volkswagen can pull it off, it will become much easier for others to follow. If Volkswagen can break away from dealerships and go direct-to-consumer, for example, then other ICE makers will likely follow. Without that, among other things as you laid out, ICE makers can't compete with Tesla.
I think time for most of them has run out though.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
What are your thoughts on expanding the "face of the company" beyond Elon to mitigate the key man risk? If Elon got hit by a bus today, the stock would tank. The company would survive, but the stock would tank. I don't think many people realize Tesla is already a 33,000+ employee MNC.
And I think Steve Jobs waited too long to do what Tim Cook is doing today: sharing the spotlight.
Until the key man risk is mitigated, I guess all we can hope for is safe autonomous buses coming about quickly.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Automotive News has restated in new mini article that Musk stated on Aug 2 that plans remain for Model Y to use 328(100 meters) feet of wiring.
Tesla will reduce electrical wiring in Model Y, Musk says
August 14, 2017 @ 12:01 am
Lindsay Chappell
Tesla's next nameplate — the Model Y crossover — just underwent a re-engineering before it was ever produced.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wowed analysts in May when he revealed that the Model Y would have its own architecture, rather than riding on the new Model 3 platform.
He said the new approach would allow the Y to require only 100 meters — or 328 feet — of electrical wiring in construction, compared with about 5,000 feet of wiring in the new Model 3 sedan.
But Musk has changed course.
He told analysts Aug. 2 that "upon the counsel of my executive team ... who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity ... the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster."
But, he added, the Y will still cut back its necessary wiring to 328 feet as planned.
Tesla will reduce electrical wiring in Model Y, Musk says
August 14, 2017 @ 12:01 am
Lindsay Chappell
Tesla's next nameplate — the Model Y crossover — just underwent a re-engineering before it was ever produced.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wowed analysts in May when he revealed that the Model Y would have its own architecture, rather than riding on the new Model 3 platform.
He said the new approach would allow the Y to require only 100 meters — or 328 feet — of electrical wiring in construction, compared with about 5,000 feet of wiring in the new Model 3 sedan.
But Musk has changed course.
He told analysts Aug. 2 that "upon the counsel of my executive team ... who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity ... the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster."
But, he added, the Y will still cut back its necessary wiring to 328 feet as planned.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Elon seems to like specialists, in the Jobs pattern...
The design guy that rode with Motor Trend does Ok. Better than Ok.
Let's paint a different picture. If Elon is an artist who designs corporations, wouldn't the value of Tesla go up, should something happen to Elon? As in "Let's all pitch in to make his vision come true, now that quibbles about personality traits are in the past."
ValueAnalyst
Closed
That's an interesting way of looking at it. Although I agree with you, I don't think the market would!I hope that Elon stays with Tesla for five more decades, but as shareholders, we need to be thinking about all tail-end risks to our investment.
I would usually post something like this in the Climate Change thread, but I think this needs more exposure. I saw this doc yesterday and SolarCity and SpaceX were featured in it. I didn't see the first one that came out years ago and I think Leo Dicaprio's doc 'Before the Flood' did a better job at getting the point across, but the ending of this nailed it on the head.
I've never really followed Al as a politician, but I respect him on his 40 years of trying to make people understand what is going on. Everyone should see this.
I've never really followed Al as a politician, but I respect him on his 40 years of trying to make people understand what is going on. Everyone should see this.
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I hope that Elon stays with Tesla for five more decades, but as shareholders, we need to be thinking about all tail-end risks to our investment.
As a recent investor. It seems like there are a few ways to see gains:
- Lowest attention: indexed funds.
- Highest attention: swing trade a stock that is being manipulated (but has risk mitigating intrinsic value).
- Mid attention: Invest in a specific company that is doing what you want done.
Are they still doing what you want done?
If not particularly, start rotating out into cash or index funds.
Life is sort of a collection of moments.
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You claim that Apple has similar/superior software capabilities as Tesla. I strongly suspect that is far from the case, but I'd like to hear how you and others rank them. I think that software engineering lies at the heart of how Tesla and SpaceX have managed to come so far so fast these past 10 years. I'm pretty confident this is due to the depth of Elon Musk's understanding of SW development coupled with his ability across all disciplines to recognize, hire and motivate the best people. I don't claim to know a great deal about Apple's SW chops so this next may be far off the mark. Apple has built their empire by innovating and developing excellent user interfaces and engineering the interaction of that SW with the evolving smartphone hardware. Nobody denies they have strong capabilities in this type of SW development. I'd argue that Tesla/SpaceX capabilities across the full spectrum of SW development far exceeds Apple. I'll only mention a few well known examples but there are dozens more. SpaceX has developed SW advanced enough to enable a Falcon 9 first stage to reliably reenter and return to a soft landing. Their SW engineers enable SpaceX to design new generation engines with performance greatly exceeding their current world class Merlins. The same culture in Tesla is advancing deep learning to move closer and closer to full autonomy. It has designed and coordinated vehicle software of great complexity and Tesla vehicles are still the only ones where each iteration of what must be a massive code base can be pushed to update customers cars overnight. What has Apple SW engineering done that is comparable or better than Tesla/SpaceX?
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
I understand your thinking here, but I believe Elon has and will continue to cultivate a corporate climate positively moving forward with or without Elon. The stock will take a hit once he steps down, but like Apple it will rise back up once everyone shakes off the issues associated with change. Where Apple for me lost its luster was its appearing to be a one trick pony. A ton of cash sitting off shore not being poured back into our economy or anywhere visible. Google on the other hand is continuously seeking newer and innovative ideas with good results. No not with all, but it is focused on growth. Yes, hit by personnel issues, but if they were not trying; they would be like apple sitting waiting for the iWind to pick up their sales again.
Elon has personnel issues but they are the result of growing pains; growing pains at light speed. Tesla either faces and grows or it, itself will become the victim of being run over by the bus. Elon has been filling and refilling his top ranks with people that can handle the breakneck pace and see the vision or move onto to less stressful careers. Other personnel issues are likewise once identified logically or painfully, they are rectified in a positive or forward looking fashion.
A sad human visualization is the video of the woman being shoved in front of a bus in England. I am not convinced that was not a targeted attack, but I digress. If you see the woman as Tesla, how many events over the years since the beginning have we seen the stock take a hit. There have been self inflicted problems like fires, delayed programs, and accidents. There have been direct targeted hits buy the fossil fuel industry (auto, and the entire gamut), and short money interests. The swerving bus is the actual auto industry avoiding the future/change.
Tesla is now maturing to a point that regardless what is said or happens to the kingpin it will make itself a success. I have always tried to train my soldiers, my family, and civilian type employees to be fully prepared in the event I was hit by a bus and they had to move on without me. I was always appreciated when I went on vacation for not leaving a mess or going to a new job leaving copious notes/instructions so no beats would be missed in my absence. You can fill and encourage your company team forward or you can focus on the riches. Me I am focused on the now with an eyebrow scanning the horizon and it looks bright to me.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
To be clear: I am not experienced in software development/engineering, coding etc. I was pointing out that Apple and Google, who both have ambitions in autonomous systems, do not suffer from the lack of software capabilities that legacy ICE manufacturers do. This was a point of differentiation Elon brought up in an earnings call as it related to manufacturing automation, and it's important to keep in mind when analyzing the competitive landscape.
I see a lot of people bulking ICE makers and Big Tech in the same bucket when looking at potential competition for Tesla. This is not a correct approach. I personally have very different views for the two groups: I don't see most ICE makers surviving the disruption, which is happening quicker than some here expect (decades?! try five years), but I expect formidable competition from Big Tech, especially Apple.
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100% agree that Volkswagen is and should be the first company to break the ICE mold. They've been freed by dieselgate, which represents their own existential threat. And it's still on-going. In fact, I think the German companies will all break out first. But, then, as you point out, they'll face internal resistance from anyone and everyone involved in the ICE chain, because all that technology will eventually be obsoleted.
VW CEO pushes for electric cars but faces internal backlash from leadership
If you think of Ford, Honda, and Toyota, who each own some of the most successful ICE vehicles, they all appear to be badly lagging in EV development, which is no surprise. I wonder if the lesson that some will take from the Model 3, which I expect will materially affect things like the 3-series and A4, will be to presume that maybe folks prefer sedans to be EVs but really want trucks and SUVs to be ICE vehicles. If they convince themselves of this, then they'll happily switch focus, but most certainly in the wrong direction.
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