2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jeewee3000]

$387+ in pre-market. Have I missed any news or is this just Model3 / end of Q2 anticipation?

 

[vgrinshpun]

$387+ in pre-market. Have I missed any news or is this just Model3 / end of Q2 anticipation?

Yes.

 

[KLC13]

Do you guys think even meeting the H1 2017 delivery guidance will result in a dip? Need some cash and am contemplating timing a (potential) dip...I hate to sell any of my TSLA (did once to buy a house, still feel I should have looked for cash elsewhere rather than those shares). Just want to know if any of you are thinking of selling anything this week?

Edit: Btw I think we will meet guidance

 

[Crowded Mind]

Do you guys think even meeting the H1 2017 delivery guidance will result in a dip? Need some cash and am contemplating timing a (potential) dip...I hate to sell any of my TSLA (did once to buy a house, still feel I should have looked for cash elsewhere rather than those shares). Just want to know if any of you are thinking of selling anything this week?

If we hit 50k in H1, I do not believe there will be a dip. I think we continue the steady run-up as long as things remain close to on plan.

 

[AlMc]

Do you guys think even meeting the H1 2017 delivery guidance will result in a dip? Need some cash and am contemplating timing a (potential) dip...I hate to sell any of my TSLA (did once to buy a house, still feel I should have looked for cash elsewhere rather than those shares). Just want to know if any of you are thinking of selling anything this week?

Edit: Btw I think we will meet guidance

IMO, it is ALL about the model 3 launch/ramp.

 

[bdy0627]

$387+ in pre-market. Have I missed any news or is this just Model3 / end of Q2 anticipation?

The market is up in general. Everything I checked is solidly green premarket.

 

[bdy0627]

IMO, it is ALL about the model 3 launch/ramp.

I agree with this. Any dip from under performing guidance will be modest and quickly filled.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

How will this affect legacy car companies?

Takata's bankruptcy filing will leave others picking up the bill, analysts say

Not well...

They're already suffering from increased warranty accruals/costs, lower margins, slowing growth, increased competition, high leverage, and so on.

Whatever problem you can think of, they have it... 99 problems, and this is one more.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Do you guys think even meeting the H1 2017 delivery guidance will result in a dip? Need some cash and am contemplating timing a (potential) dip...I hate to sell any of my TSLA (did once to buy a house, still feel I should have looked for cash elsewhere rather than those shares). Just want to know if any of you are thinking of selling anything this week?

Edit: Btw I think we will meet guidance

There can always be a dip since TSLA is a highly contentious stock, but waiting for a dip in a highly undervalued stock....?

Let's just say I'm not waiting.

 

[FluxCap]

California Lawmakers Model an Electric Car Program After the State’s Successful Solar Initiative

Haven't seen this hit trading desks yet, but could be making rounds among some traders (or bots) pre-market.

While this is nice for the huge California EV market and is a wise move by state legislators, I've been thinking lately how as Elon once said, EV incentives are actually not necessary for Tesla product demand to remain stratospheric - the Model 3 simply going to be one of the best cars ever made, and the best car in the several "classes" it competes with by a wide margin.

Regardless, can you imagine getting $7,500 + $2,500 + $2000 = $12,000 rebate on your Model 3 purchase? There becomes less and less of a reason to buy almost any other car, period.

 

[KLC13]

IMO, it is ALL about the model 3 launch/ramp.

This should help First Tesla Model 3 spotted outside the US

 

[austinEV]

news behind this market wide drop?

 

[Mike Smith]

California Lawmakers Model an Electric Car Program After the State’s Successful Solar Initiative

Haven't seen this hit trading desks yet, but could be making rounds among some traders (or bots) pre-market.

While this is nice for the huge California EV market and is a wise move by state legislators, I've been thinking lately how as Elon once said, EV incentives are actually not necessary for Tesla product demand to remain stratospheric - the Model 3 simply going to be one of the best cars ever made, and the best car in the several "classes" it competes with by a wide margin.

Regardless, can you imagine getting $7,500 + $2,500 + $2000 = $12,000 rebate on your Model 3 purchase? There becomes less and less of a reason to buy almost any other car, period.

This type of rebate doesn't have the disadvantages for Tesla that the other programs do. This would be a huge benefit.

 

[Starno]

TSLA decided to follow the NASDAQ ....

 

[Reciprocity]

news behind this market wide drop?

Recent trend seems to be that Tesla follows the Nasdaq, which has been wonky lately. Nasdaq was up and Tesla was now both trending down. I wouldnt worry as I expect any down turn to cause a short covering rally. There are so many shorts that are so upside down that they are looking for any reason to exit and put on new shorts, because they love the punishment I guess.

Edit: Twitter says Waymo + Avis deal for self driving rentals is the cause, but its not.

Edit2: Nasdaq was up 3x the DOW in pre-market. Now up half as much as DOW. Tesla is still caught in this muddle that is a Nasdaq taking some kind of breather. Dont think the Waymo thing has any impact. Shorts will cover and the stock will rally and the Nasdaq will find its footing and Tesla will rally. Either way, Tesla will rally.

 

[AlMc]

news behind this market wide drop?

Tesla related

Alphabet Inks Deal For Avis to Manage Self-Driving Car Fleet

 

[Krugerrand]

Quoted for record. I think your 2017 numbers are within reason, because I believe production ramp will be difficult.

If you are wrong on 2018 and beyond though, nobody here will every let you forget it.

That's for sure. He'll be relegated to the next stop $270 category.

 

[Gerasimental]

Tesla related

Alphabet Inks Deal For Avis to Manage Self-Driving Car Fleet

Then why did Alphabet drop too?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Ok breaking my own rule and commenting. The warning about tsla using GTAT example totally off base. I followed that in real tine. I had sleepy sending me messages urging me to jump into GTAT for a can't miss opportunity I did not invest in it and responded to his messages with my concerns
1. GTAT could not make saphire glass (the only reason to invest in the company was iPhone was to use it). They had very high failure rate. I didn't invest in tsla until I drove a car at wash D.C. Store in 2012. They successfully made and sold roadster and were making model S.
2. Exclusive deal with Apple was stupid. They had no leverage in any negotiation over price. Their only leverage or "power" over Apple was to declare bk which they did
3. Before iPhone announcement chairman of Corning (maker of gorilla glass) gave interview on CNBC saying he was sure that gorilla glass would continue to be used. Go through the contrarian blog and look for mention of that (you won't see it). He was extremely confident even jovial. If anyone had watched that they would have had ample warning.

I am not saying tsla can't lose money but has anyone here invested in faraday? Now that comparison with GTAT would be right on. No sales, no produced product no working factory....only pr releases would anyone be surprised if they fail?

Investing in GTAT is comparable to investing in one of Tesla's suppliers.

Even worse, because Tesla has a track record of successfully insourcing even crucial components of its supply chain.

I never liked the idea of investing in Apple's suppliers, and I like the idea even less with Tesla's suppliers.

 

[FluxCap]

Crap - chatter is that Supreme Court has stayed injunction on Trump's Muslim/Travel Ban except in cases of persons with a "bona fide" relationship to the US, which seems really unclear. Market is taking a dump on this.

Edit - looks like this may be Gorsuch's written opinion only. Still, unclear how this winds up.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/16pdf/16-1436_l6hc.pdf

The injunctions remain in place only with respect to
parties similarly situated to Doe, Dr. Elshikh, and Hawaii.
In practical terms, this means that §2(c) may not be en-
forced against foreign nationals who have a credible claim
of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the
United States. All other foreign nationals are subject to
the provisions of EO–2.
The facts of these cases illustrate the sort of relationship
that qualifies. For individuals, a close familial relation
-
ship is required. A foreign national who wishes to enter
the United States to live with or visit a family member,
like Doe’s wife or Dr. Elshikh’s mother-in-law, clearly has
such a relationship. As for entities, the relationship must
be formal, documented, and formed in the ordinary course,
rather than for the purpose of evading EO–2. The stu-
dents from the designated countries who have been admit-
ted to the University of Hawaii have such a relationship
with an American entity. So too would a worker who
accepted an offer of employment from an American com-
pany or a lecturer invited to address an American audi-
ence. Not so someone who enters into a relationship sim-
ply to avoid §2(c): For example, a nonprofit group devoted to
immigration issues may not contact foreign nationals from
the designated countries, add them to client lists, and then
secure their entry by claiming injury from their exclusion