I don’t get why everything is an estimate though why can’t just give the actual state of charge
If it’s at 70% and it tells me well we think it’s at 65% don’t do that just tell me it’s 70%
This would also tell you how much the battery has degraded if it won’t full charge anymore
Energy in a battery isn't like liquid in a tank. It isn't a absolute amount. A cold battery has higher internal resistance so you will get less energy out of it, the rest is lost. If the same battery with the same state of charge is warm, you get more out. That's just how batteries work. Tesla cars know all about the battery conditions and tell you the best possible number based on all these. I know this sounds counter intuitive and we really want it to be as simple as water pitcher that holds exactly x amount of water, but that's just not how the chemistry in a battery works. It is a number that will fluctuate up and down a bit in a way that appears random to us. The BMS knows way more than we do.
Having driven 3 Tesla vehicles over the last 10 years and a total of over 500k miles, I can speak from experience, Tesla's battery management and range estimates are pretty good.