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4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors

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From Shirley Meng, I know they don't have a research deal with Tesla, but Tesla is probably involved in this battery consortium, maybe by Jeff Dahn
350 Wh/kg cell cycling

We only got to look at a few slides, but there are a lot of problems. It implies that they have pressures of 100 MPa. In the cell? In the manufacturing equipment? That’s like 1000 atmospheres! Anyways, then it says price must come down 5x to 10x, so not commercially viable. And then you have the all important cell specs. They used a charge rate of 10 hours to charge. Ok, what happens if you try to charge it in one hour? Probably worse specs.

Look, all this battery cell research is nice, but it always has huge honking caveats. The rules of thumb of it taking five years from lab scale to production appears to always hold. Even Tesla is finding the same thing with their dry electrode process. As are the current other advanced battery cell startups.

So maybe we can relegate these battery cell research announcements to the appropriate thread since they will have zero effect on TSLA?
 
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At a guess the 100 MPa is the pressure between the nip in the calender.

I'd not appreciated how small the calender rools that Tesla are using are. I had imagined 3-metre width ones. It seems they are only didgy ones and they are arranged to produce stripes of material, so no need to hold the thickness constant over a very wide sheet, just over a narrow stripe. That means the calender build/test/change/repeat cycle is much faster. From the various picturs and info I think they have that aspect of 4680 production fairly well sorted now.
 
For the nerds:

This book from Kang just went on sale and is already sold out. You will notice Shirley Meng was tagged and she even said she can't wait to use it. If you watch The Limiting Factor, you know Shirley is one of Jordan's contacts that has helped him understand battery materials and dissect a 4680 cell.


You can still get the book on the publisher's site:


There is also a foreword by Jeff Dahn:


I really want to get this book, but even with all my own research and with Jordan's videos, I hope it won't be TOO over my head. haha
 

This discovery doubles the world reserves of phosphate, the 'P' in LFP batteries.

Lots of hype surrounding the Norwegian phosphate story. It’s a repeat of 24 months ago. The “was 10, now 70bn tons” number is NOT new - such also appeared in 2021.
As I’ve looked at it, it appears to be legitimate but not yet a lock-tight story.
The titanium portion of the hype, though?

Pfffft. A bucket of ilmenite is worth a bucket of sand. It’s great if you want white paint. Rutile is what you need to find if you’re considering going into Ti-metallurgy. Super, super costly - and energy engulfing - to alter ilmenite into rutile (thence metallic Ti).
 

Jeff Dahn should join some MIC lobby group like RAND corp or Institute for study of war and learn about geopolitics 🤣

From wiki:
The world's reserves of tungsten are 3,200,000 tonnes; they are mostly located in China (1,800,000 t), Canada (290,000 t),[56] Russia (160,000 t), Vietnam (95,000 t) and Bolivia. As of 2017, China, Vietnam and Russia are the leading suppliers with 79,000, 7,200 and 3,100 tonnes, respectively. Canada had ceased production in late 2015 due to the closure of its sole tungsten mine.
 
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Jeff Dahn should join some MIC lobby group like RAND corp or Institute for study of war and learn about geopolitics 🤣

From wiki:
The world's reserves of tungsten are 3,200,000 tonnes; they are mostly located in China (1,800,000 t), Canada (290,000 t),[56] Russia (160,000 t), Vietnam (95,000 t) and Bolivia. As of 2017, China, Vietnam and Russia are the leading suppliers with 79,000, 7,200 and 3,100 tonnes, respectively. Canada had ceased production in late 2015 due to the closure of its sole tungsten mine.
They are only talking about doping with a small amount of Tungsten.

They may find another substance which can do the same job.

If this was a necessary commodity, it would become more valuable, hence more reserves would be economic.

Tesla already has everything that Jeff has done here:- DBE, Single Crystal Cathode, Cobalt free high Nickel battery.

The value is that Jeff is achieving very similar results via a completely different path.

Jeff's processes may be cheaper than Tesla current processes, but using them in production is probably 10 years away which is enough time to find more Tungsten.

Jeff's job is to determine what combinations work, Tesla will chose the combinations they like, and raw materials supplies will be a consideration.

Besides Canadians are always such nice polite people, we should be polite in return.
 
Disagree. Tesla clearly stated on the call that 10% was without other things known to increase energy density by a significant margin, like silicon anode doping, etc.

Optimization-wise, they are still VERY VERY EARLY in the curve on the 4680s. This is expected because DBE is such a massive change (bigger than anything else done AT SCALE in the battery world in 20 years) that you don't just add all these additional enhancement items from the get go. You work with basic chemistry design to perfect the process, then you add things in, one variable at a time.

I haven't put my chemistry degree to use in 20+ years, but this one I am very confident in that they are taking the correct approach.
 
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My take on the 4680 update from Drew was very bullish.

The Cybercell achieved the required energy density for initial CT production essentially via packaging improvements. IMO it is very likely that those improvements are at cell and pack level and an improved structural battery pack design might be very signicantly.

Drew specially said the Cathode and Anode improvements from battery day are not included at this stage. That means there is another up to 24% increase in range that is possible once these improvements can be implemented.

Cathode improvements were always dependent on the Cathode plant that is being built at Austin.

Cost reduction is a function of the cathode plant, the lithium refinery, energy density improvements, and the production ramp with a host of small design and process improvements.

The big advantage of building your own stuff is the opportunity to get better at it, and to bank the profits.
 







The first questions is whether or not this “Silicon carbide,” is the silicon process described on battery day,

Battery day:-
  • Raw Metallurgical Silicon
  • Stabilise surface - though elastic ion-conduction polymer coating
  • Robust network - Highly elastic binder + electrode design,



Silicon carbide is expensive but it does seem possible that Tesla could make their own Silicon Carbide which they may needed to do for volume battery manufacture.

However, it doesn't seem that Silicon Carbide is is the silicon process described on battery day.

Drew has also said that all the benefits of battery day might not be realised until 2026, but hunch would be that silicon will be one of the last benefits.

There are implications for the Roadster because perhaps neither silicon path will be fast enough for Roadster deliveries to start in 2024/2025.

However, one form of producing Silicon Carbide seems arguably better than the battery day silicon process.



I assume that Tesla can control this process to grow single crystals of the desired size.

This version does mention polymers, so could perhaps be the battery day process



Still this is making the SiC itself into a polymer not adding a polymer coating, unless this polymer is used to coat silicon. (then converted to Silicon Carbide).

What his all means for the Roadster timeline is hard to guess, I am now not sure if silicon anodes are a mandatory requirement.
 
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