Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[mongo]

Hello, rear radar :-)

That's no radar, it's a Bluetooth keyless module.

Back to real radar, I get the backing up use case. However, realizing that vision data handling is more work, aren't the repeater cameras in a better position to see approaching traffic than a bumper mounted radar would, even if it was in the corner?

 

[lunitiks]

That's no radar, it's a Bluetooth keyless module.

 

[mongo]

Are we looking at different things?

Naw, its a bluetooth device. I thought it was a radar too.

 

[diplomat33]

I can give you a couple with references from an Elon video since the actual material pieces are now erased from history and I didn't do a good job first time around protecting myself. Remember, fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me. This time I have kept immaculate records.

7.26 Read Stop Signs and Traffic Lights
10:05 Advanced summons
There were some others but again lost in history for now.

Thanks. That does help refresh my memory about what Musk said about AP1. Look I get it. AP1 owners back then were probably super excited when AP1 was announced in that video thinking of all the great features it would have. Now years later, AP1 never got those features but the features are finally coming to AP2/3 cars. So I get why AP1 owners would be sour about this and highly skeptical about FSD.

It is possible that Tesla would have provided those features on AP1 if the break up with Mobileye had never happened. Of course, the break up did happen, so there is no way of knowing.

I do think this situation is a bit different. Tesla is doing everything in house now which makes it easier to support previous hardware and they are providing the promised features to EAP that they promised to EAP owners even though the features are now classified as FSD. And they are going to provide the new hardware (AP3 chip) to AP2 owners in order to keep their promise of FSD to those who purchased it.

Well, because Tesla never intends this thing to be fully autonomous ever, that's why.

Here is where I think you are taking it a step too far. Tesla intends the cars to be fully autonomous even if they are not fully autonomous on this current generation of hardware. There is a big difference between saying the cars won't be fully autonomous on this generation of hardware and they will never be autonomous ever. So you are saying that Tesla won't be fully autonomous on say AP33?

 

[lunitiks]

Are we looking at different things?

I’m messing with you and I’m surprised you didn’t get it. Actually I’m not surprised, I have a track record of people not getting my jokes. Sry bout that m8

 

[boonedocks]

Thanks. That does help refresh my memory about what Musk said about AP1. Look I get it. AP1 owners back then were probably super excited when AP1 was announced in that video thinking of all the great features it would have. Now years later, AP1 never got those features but the features are finally coming to AP2/3 cars. So I get why AP1 owners would be sour about this and highly skeptical about FSD.

It is possible that Tesla would have provided those features on AP1 if the break up with Mobileye had never happened. Of course, the break up did happen, so there is no way of knowing.

I do think this situation is a bit different. Tesla is doing everything in house now which makes it easier to support previous hardware and they are providing the promised features to EAP that they promised to EAP owners even though the features are now classified as FSD. And they are going to provide the new hardware (AP3 chip) to AP2 owners in order to keep their promise of FSD to those who purchased it.



Here is where I think you are taking it a step too far. Tesla intends the cars to be fully autonomous even if they are not fully autonomous on this current generation of hardware. There is a big difference between saying the cars won't be fully autonomous on this generation of hardware and they will never be autonomous ever. So you are saying that Tesla won't be fully autonomous on say AP33?

The part that has those of us so concerned is that Tesla is systematically changing the definition of FSD on the Tesla.com website. Dumbing it down in other words. I would never have traded in my 18 month old S85D if not for what was advertised with HW2 / FSD on October 2015 forward. Based on the AP / FSD description as of today - right now I would still be driving my S85D AP1.

 

[lunitiks]

The part that has those of us so concerned is that Tesla is systematically changing the definition of FSD on the Tesla.com website.

No they are not!

 

[boonedocks]

No they are not!

This is not what I was sold:

 

[mongo]

I’m messing with you and I’m surprised you didn’t get it. Actually I’m not surprised, I have a track record of people not getting my jokes. Sry bout that m8

Ahhh.. the 'wrong' "wrong"
(I get confused)
No worries

 

[mongo]

This is not what I was sold:

View attachment 383680

And that is not where they will stop. They just aren't putting >1 year targets on the order page.

 

[OPRCE]

And that is not where they will stop. They just aren't putting >1 year targets on the order page.

Right, this has to be the case, as ATM there is no specific guarantee of FSD ever getting stop-line recognition, yet we know from verygreen's video that it is in the recent releases, though not yet switched on.

Same presumably applies to speed-limit sign recognition, etc., etc.

 

[mongo]

Right, this has to be the case, as ATM there is no specific guarantee of FSD ever getting stop-line recognition, yet we know from verygreen's video that it is in the recent releases, though not yet switched on.

Same presumably applies to speed-limit sign recognition, etc., etc.

And they never told Model 3 buyers they would get a 5% power increase...

 

[boonedocks]

Careful up there ^^ you don’t spill that overflowing big gulp size your drinking

 

[diplomat33]

Careful up there ^^ you don’t spill that overflowing big gulp size your drinking

View attachment 383693

HA HA. You know some ice cold strawberry kool aid is very refreshing. You should try some.

 

[electronblue]

Thanks. That does help refresh my memory about what Musk said about AP1. Look I get it. AP1 owners back then were probably super excited when AP1 was announced in that video thinking of all the great features it would have. Now years later, AP1 never got those features but the features are finally coming to AP2/3 cars. So I get why AP1 owners would be sour about this and highly skeptical about FSD.

It is possible that Tesla would have provided those features on AP1 if the break up with Mobileye had never happened. Of course, the break up did happen, so there is no way of knowing.

Sorry, that MobilEye excuse does not cut it with this one:

In addition to the ones @boonedocks mentioned is tha Navigate on Autopilot for AP1 — namely Navigation-based exit-taking.

This was announced months after the MobilEye break-up. It was announced quite likely to keep the AP1 inventory moving to the last...

For example Teslarati.com has the Tesla press releases that explain how 8.0 gets it in manual mode and 8.1 will add Navigation-based exit-taking... there was even a timeline for it, December 2016.

It never came or was spoken of since.

 

[diplomat33]

For example Teslarati.com has the Tesla press releases that explain how 8.0 gets it in manual mode and 8.1 will add Navigation-based exit-taking... there was even a timeline for it, December 2016.

I am assuming you are referring to this in the Teslarati article about V8 release notes:
"Will take highway exit if indicator on (8.0) or if nav system active (8.1). Available in the United States initially."

I can assume from your post that AP1 never got this in V8?

I don't know what happens inside Tesla development. So I don't know why the feature never materialized on AP1. I can only conclude that for whatever reason, Tesla decided to drop that feature. It is worth noting that we are getting this feature and more as apart of NOA with AP2. So Tesla did not abandon the feature completely, they just implemented it differently as part of V9 for AP2.

And I am not making excuses per se but shifting features to the next software version is common in software development. There are plenty of times when software engineers plan for a set of features initially but then decide later to move some forward to the next software version instead.

 

[electronblue]

I am assuming you are referring to this in the Teslarati article about V8 release notes:
"Will take highway exit if indicator on (8.0) or if nav system active (8.1). Available in the United States initially."

I can assume from your post that AP1 never got this in V8?

I don't know what happens inside Tesla development. So I don't know why the feature never materialized on AP1. I can only conclude that for whatever reason, Tesla decided to drop that feature. It is worth noting that we are getting this feature and more as apart of NOA with AP2. So Tesla did not abandon the feature completely, they just implemented it differently as part of V9 for AP2.

And I am not making excuses per se but shifting features to the next software version is common in software development. There are plenty of times when software engineers plan for a set of features initially but then decide later to move some forward to the next software version instead.

AP1 got the manual exit taking in 8.0 but the 8.1 navigation-based exit taking never came.

All this was announced some weeks before AP2 so it can not have referred to AP2...

 

[diplomat33]

AP1 got the manual exit taking in 8.0 but the 8.1 navigation-based exit taking never came.

All this was announced some weeks before AP2 so it can not have referred to AP2...

Ok so AP1 did get part of the feature (manual exit taking), just not the whole feature (navigation based exit taking). For whatever reason, Tesla just missed that one part of the feature. So yeah, I can see how AP1 owners would be disappointed but it was not a total loss.

 

[rnortman]

Well, because Tesla never intends this thing to be fully autonomous ever, that's why.

Here is where I think you are taking it a step too far. Tesla intends the cars to be fully autonomous even if they are not fully autonomous on this current generation of hardware. There is a big difference between saying the cars won't be fully autonomous on this generation of hardware and they will never be autonomous ever. So you are saying that Tesla won't be fully autonomous on say AP33?

I specifically mean the current-generation vehicles with current-generation sensor suite, regardless of how many times they update the computing power. So "HW3" is the compute board upgrade but not a sensor upgrade. I don't believe it will enable L4/L5 driverless robotaxi-level autonomy, at least not before the cars are hopelessly outdated anyway. (So, something like 7 years maybe? By which time the whole landscape will have changed and it won't matter -- and Tesla won't be updating AP2/2.5 anymore.)

If AP3 (as opposed to HW3) comes around with a better sensor suite and more redundancy, then all bets are off. But current-generation vehicles will never get a retrofitted AP3 sensor suite. I would not be surprised to see something like "AP2.9" which is HW3 computer plus some minor enhancements to the sensors and wiring to allow better redundancy, maybe heated radar. AP2/2.5 cars will not get this (hypothetical) AP2.9 upgrade because it's too expensive to change wiring and sensor mounting, if the mounting needs to change. This may give you better performance but I still don't think you're in the robotaxi zone.

Still hypothetically, AP3 would be something like 360-degree radar coverage and/or short-range (small) stereo camera pairs providing 360-degree coverage with sensor cleaning, plus a true long-range forward stereo camera pair or lidar, plus more redundancy in the electronic braking, steering, and power delivery systems, plus ~5 HW3 chips to crunch all that data. I could get on board with something like that providing robotaxi-level autonomy, circa 2024.

Obviously no current-generation vehicles are getting that retrofit.

 

[diplomat33]

I specifically mean the current-generation vehicles with current-generation sensor suite, regardless of how many times they update the computing power. So "HW3" is the compute board upgrade but not a sensor upgrade. I don't believe it will enable L4/L5 driverless robotaxi-level autonomy, at least not before the cars are hopelessly outdated anyway. (So, something like 7 years maybe? By which time the whole landscape will have changed and it won't matter -- and Tesla won't be updating AP2/2.5 anymore.)

If AP3 (as opposed to HW3) comes around with a better sensor suite and more redundancy, then all bets are off. But current-generation vehicles will never get a retrofitted AP3 sensor suite. I would not be surprised to see something like "AP2.9" which is HW3 computer plus some minor enhancements to the sensors and wiring to allow better redundancy, maybe heated radar. AP2/2.5 cars will not get this (hypothetical) AP2.9 upgrade because it's too expensive to change wiring and sensor mounting, if the mounting needs to change. This may give you better performance but I still don't think you're in the robotaxi zone.

Still hypothetically, AP3 would be something like 360-degree radar coverage and/or short-range (small) stereo camera pairs providing 360-degree coverage with sensor cleaning, plus a true long-range forward stereo camera pair or lidar, plus more redundancy in the electronic braking, steering, and power delivery systems, plus ~5 HW3 chips to crunch all that data. I could get on board with something like that providing robotaxi-level autonomy, circa 2024.

Obviously no current-generation vehicles are getting that retrofit.

Thanks for the clarification. The way you worded it was not completely clear to me.