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EV and Battery Credits

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Sawyer Merritt just said on spaces that he has calculated that the IRA credit tax rebate currently is available to 100m Americans and will jump to 250m in 3 days. Is that close to correct?

Could be since time of sale transfer means you don't need tax liability to claim the entire amount, just have to be below the income limits.
 
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I don't know what he is thinking...
To get $3,750 Tesla would need to remove all Chinese sourced components, but then only meet one of the mineral or component sourcing limits which can be evaluated on a factory output basis.
So likelihoods for what will be in a USA made Highland M3SR in July 2024:

35% China made 2170s ($0 credit)
15% China made 4680s ($0 credit)
5% partly USA made 4680s ($3750 credit)
5% partly USA made 2170s ($3750 credit)
15% USA made 4680s ($7500 credit)
25% USA made 2170s ($7500 credit)

What is less wrong?
 
So likelihoods for what will be in a USA made Highland M3SR in July 2024:

35% China made 2170s ($0 credit)
15% China made 4680s ($0 credit)
5% partly USA made 4680s ($3750 credit)
5% partly USA made 2170s ($3750 credit)
15% USA made 4680s ($7500 credit)
25% USA made 2170s ($7500 credit)

What is less wrong?
My thinking is $0 or $7,500 are possible, but $3,750 would be really hard to pull off.
3 P will be $7,500 as will Y, so 2170s are $7,500. 4680s are even more Tesla so those are $7,500. China content is $0, so there would need to be a new, non-China, lower free-trade content cell to only qualify for half credit.
 
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There are, what, nine models that qualify for the full $7,500?

And for the folks who don't have $7500 of federal tax liability, they probably shouldn't be buying a $50k+ car, even with $7500 off. They still, likely, have to qualify for financing.
3P, Y, YLR, YP, X, CT
3 RWD and 3LR lose the credit
$7,500 in tax is > $90k gross for married, no kids
With point of sale, a Y is effectively $36.5k after 18% down.
 
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3P, Y, YLR, YP, X, CT
3 RWD and 3LR lose the credit
$7,500 in tax is > $90k gross for married, no kids
With point of sale, a Y is effectively $36.5k after 18% down.

Assuming hypothetical couple has 18% to put down, a 5 year loan for $36.5k at 6.5% (that's assuming they even qualify for some of the best rates) is $714/month.

How many couples making <$90k can afford that / would be qualified?

I think people are vastly overstating how many new customers the POS credit will bring in.

And again, it's not the >$90k income crowd this is supposed to impact. It's, per Sawyer, everyone making less than that.
 
Since when does a Fred interpretation/ extrapolation of Tesla's website have anything to what Tesla has told customers?
"Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions likely after Dec 31. Only for eligible cash or loan purchases." was accurate, 3 RWD and 3LR lost credits. The message even specifies "qualified" not "Y". Did the site every say Y was going to lose credits?

If anything, Tesla was over-optimistic (under selling) in thinking the 3 credit would only get cut in half.
 
Assuming hypothetical couple has 18% to put down, a 5 year loan for $36.5k at 6.5% (that's assuming they even qualify for some of the best rates) is $714/month.

How many couples making <$90k can afford that / would be qualified?

I think people are vastly overstating how many new customers the POS credit will bring in.

And again, it's not the >$90k income crowd this is supposed to impact. It's, per Sawyer, everyone making less than that.
The 18% is the point of sale credit, the buyers don't pay anything out of pocket.
$48k a year, $1.2k/ month rent, and a good credit score qualifies for $40k car loan per https://www.thecarconnection.com/car-loans/loan-estimator/
And the >$90k was indicating where taxes exceed $7,500, thus demonstrating that the people below that level benefit from the point of sale decoupling from tax liability.
 
Since when does a Fred interpretation/ extrapolation of Tesla's website have anything to what Tesla has told customers?
"Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions likely after Dec 31. Only for eligible cash or loan purchases." was accurate, 3 RWD and 3LR lost credits. The message even specifies "qualified" not "Y". Did the site every say Y was going to lose credits?

If anything, Tesla was over-optimistic (under selling) in thinking the 3 credit would only get cut in half.

The automaker wrote in the Model Y’s online configurator:

Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions likely after Dec 31. Only for eligible cash or loan purchases.


Tesla misled customers - whether they did so knowingly is up for debate.
 
The 18% is the point of sale credit, the buyers don't pay anything out of pocket.
$48k a year, $1.2k/ month rent, and a good credit score qualifies for $40k car loan per https://www.thecarconnection.com/car-loans/loan-estimator/
And the >$90k was indicating where taxes exceed $7,500, thus demonstrating that the people below that level benefit from the point of sale decoupling from tax liability.

No one should be buying a vehicle that's 83% of their annual salary lol