EV and Battery Credits

[Buckminster]

Interesting bit of news although not directly Tesla related, Ethiopia is banning the imports of ICE vehicles and vows to build out a charging infrastructure.

Primarily motivated by not wanting to spend billions on the imports of oil but nevertheless a good sign that Africa might be able to leap frog into a green future.

Ethiopia to Prohibit Importation of Non-Electric Cars

Ethiopia's Transport Ministry says it is moving in the direction of banning import of non-Electric vehicles. Electric cars to get ...

borkena.com

The ultimate credit

 

[Hiline]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753307678808633726

Following price reductions

Wow this is a deep cut for how low the margins already are. If these price cuts and credits don't sell these vehicles, nothing will.

 

[tivoboy]

Wow this is a deep cut for how low the margins already are. If these price cuts and credits don't sell these vehicles, nothing will.

Technically, the TESLA portion of this is only $4000 CAD, unlocking the Quebec Rebate of ~ UP TO $12000 CAD… did you mean the $4000 was a lot? Since well, we’ve had that much in USD for most of last year, and will probably continue into 2024 as well.

 

[Hiline]

Technically, the TESLA portion of this is only $4000 CAD, unlocking the Quebec Rebate of ~ UP TO $12000 CAD… did you mean the $4000 was a lot? Since well, we’ve had that much in USD for most of last year, and will probably continue into 2024 as well.

Yes. I think the gross margin on a Model Y is around $7k, so a $3k cut is quite deep.

 

[mongo]

Yes. I think the gross margin on a Model Y is around $7k, so a $3k cut is quite deep.

Model Y LR in Canada is under $2k less than US price.

 

[Buckminster]

Model Y $36k and FSD transfer confirmed to be coming imminently. What are you waiting for?

Cheapest inventory MY in UK is $57k...

Have US prices bottomed? May FOMC is 1st May so Q2 will likely benefit from more affordable prices early on in the quarter.

Before state credits

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757471857144377714

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759979377369153888

 

[Knightshade]

That doesn't make sense? (the Model 3 part)-- the minerals would still be sourced and processed in China- which all the current M3 LFPs are? (and Model 3 LR is using LG 2170s also from china and also not qualifying AFAIK?)

It's possible this is a move to make CATLs NON china plants they're planning to build easier to qualify though.

 

[mongo]

That doesn't make sense? (the Model 3 part)-- the minerals would still be sourced and processed in China- which all the current M3 LFPs are? (and Model 3 LR is using LG 2170s also from china and also not qualifying AFAIK?)

It's possible this is a move to make CATLs NON china plants they're planning to build easier to qualify though.

The excluded entity clause is only active for components this year, not minerals.

(7) EXCLUDED ENTITIES.—For purposes of this section, the term ‘new clean vehicle’ shall not include—
(A) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2024, with respect to which any of the applicable critical minerals contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(1)(A)) were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern (as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (42 U.S.C. 18741(a)(5))), or
(B) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2023, with respect to which any of the components contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(2)(A)) were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern (as so defined).’’.

(e)(2) BATTERY COMPONENTS.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The requirement described in this subparagraph with respect to a vehicle is that, with respect to the battery from which the electric motor of such vehicle draws electricity, the percentage of the value of the components contained in such battery that were manufactured or assembled in North America is equal to or greater than the applicable percentage (as certified by the qualified manufacturer, in such form or manner as prescribed by the Secretary).

 

[Knightshade]

The excluded entity clause is only active for components this year, not minerals.

Ok, but AFAIK BOTH the minerals and the cells themselves are manufactured/assembled in China so the shareholder change wouldn't impact anything.

 

[mongo]

Ok, but AFAIK BOTH the minerals and the cells themselves are manufactured/assembled in China so the shareholder change wouldn't impact anything.

Unless there is a not-quite-Chinese subsidiary outside of China? Maybe 49% China owned is ok?
Article has more details, but it seems like that is goal. May be more relevant for the new US plants.

 

[Knightshade]

Unless there is a not-quite-Chinese subsidiary outside of China? Maybe 49% China owned is ok?
Article has more details, but it seems like that is goal. May be more relevant for the new US plants.

yeah, my expectation was this was relevant to future plants, not the existing supply for Model 3 this year or anything (Omars seemingly baseless optimism not withstanding)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763095546590290141

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763095546590290141

Sometimes I think Alex is a moron. The 2025 step up has been known for years. They'll lower EV prices and raise ICE to compensate. All legacy is in the same boat (except Toyota, kinda), so there's no competitive penalty as there would be if they tried to do it without the quota.

 

[Knightshade]

Sometimes I think Alex is a moron. The 2025 step up has been known for years. They'll lower EV prices and raise ICE to compensate. All legacy is in the same boat (except Toyota, kinda), so there's no competitive penalty as there would be if they tried to do it without the quota.

Yeah the % of stuff he posts that is... worth posting? has gotten a lot lower in the last couple years

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763565420424933468

 

[Dave EV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763565420424933468

LOL! It still amazes me that Toyota is so backwards after the success of the Prius which mistakenly caused all to think that they were going to lead the race to zero-emissions vehicles.

EVs still have some shortcomings driven mainly by the cost of batteries, but as costs continue to fall and density continues to increase, the shortcomings will continue to diminish.

I think back to my first EV 13 years ago with a very limited real-world range of around 50-60 miles (driving gingerly!) followed by a Model 3 5 years ago with a real world range about 3-4 times that (driving it like you stole it!).

I still think that even bigger batteries AND/OR significantly faster charging is necessary to minimize the minor inconvenience of EVs vs fossil fuel cars to truly get to mass adoption, but Toyota is really dragging their feet.

If I were an investor with money in Toyota, I would be moving all my money elsewhere.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766418892610515334

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768941475318902799