General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Brando]

@winfield100 seems a classic overachiever, right? he should be working at .... spacex internet satellite company?
The speed with which internet censorship is progressing, it may be our only hope.
The Do No Evil Company now seems to work for the state. Good bye Alex Jones - I may miss laughing at ol' Alex.
Per Patriot Act (or is it the NDAA=National Defense Authorization Act?), Alex is helping spread terrorists ideas or he is fomenting discontent and so must be censored/removed/deplatformed.

thanks, and good luck to all

(start that home victory garden - you'll love the fresh vegetables no matter what the future holds.
Don't worry so much about the weeds. i.e. You don't need to weed so much. jus plant and see what happens
Plants have been getting along for millions of years without our help.)

Oh, and thanks for the tip about the 10 Culture books by writer Iain M Banks

 

[winfield100]

@winfield100 seems a classic overachiever, right? he should be working at .... spacex internet satellite company?
The speed with which internet censorship is progressing, it may be our only hope.
The Do No Evil Company now seems to work for the state. Good bye Alex Jones - I may miss laughing at ol' Alex.
Per Patriot Act (or is it the NDAA=National Defense Authorization Act?), Alex is helping spread terrorists ideas or he is fomenting discontent and so must be censored/removed/deplatformed.

thanks, and good luck to all

(start that home victory garden - you'll love the fresh vegetables no matter what the future holds.
Don't worry so much about the weeds. i.e. You don't need to weed so much. jus plant and see what happens
Plants have been getting along for millions of years without our help.)

Oh, and thanks for the tip about the 10 Culture books by writer Iain M Banks

dude, have been alive since late 1940's, watched rockets blow up on launch pads in the late 1950s
more interested in neural link/neural lace/uploads at this point in time, eh,

 

[schonelucht]

Last week, a taxi driver won a court case against Tesla with respect to unlimited supercharging. (Tesla won the more important part of the case in the same court wrt warranty claims). Basically, Tesla can’t retroactively limit supercharging privileges for commercial drivers in the Netherlands as it had tried before.

The court case does support future potential cases in the Netherlands that are build on more informal communication with Tesla at the time of purchase (like text on the Tesla website and assurances by the sales person) and that go beyond the rights obtained through formal purchase contract language. I am specifically thinking about FSD here obviously. I believe a Dutch customer asking for a remedy for non delivery of FSD through the courts will be granted one.

Hat-tip : (link and text in Dutch)

Hoewel de Supercharger inmiddels is gesloten is er toch een interessante uitspraak gedaan: ECLI:NL:RBAMS:2018:7422, Rechtbank Amsterdam, C/13/653191 / KG ZA 18-906

 

[RobStark]

Plants have been getting along for millions of years without our help.)

Not the varieties created by human selection over the last couple of millennia that most modern humans enjoy eating.

 

[Brando]

Not the varieties created by human selection over the last couple of millennia that most modern humans enjoy eating.

selective breeding is one thing. BUT remember before WWII about 80% of people still lived on farms. And Industrial Ag really got started after WWII. Anyway use heirloom seeds - you'll be surprised at the variety.

Peru alone (as just one example) still has over 250 different types of potatoes. Jungles of Haiti had so many different types of fruit that when you saw a fruit tree you never knew if it would taste good or not. Citrus was green or orange or yellow or red on the outside and you never knew the color on the inside till you cut it open. And it might taste fine, great, or bitter, again, you'd just have to try it. That was 1970s and even then they were deforesting the land to make charcoal for cooking so perhaps no jungle left?

spend extra money on heirloom, experiment, try to learn how to keep your own seeds too, enjoy, have fun, don't worry if you can't keep up with weeding - the good heirlooms will do fine - don't over water once a week usually plenty - grass normally dies over the summer and the first rain in the fall brings back all the green.

Many books, web-sites, youtubes and usual watch for BS and those just try to sell you something.

OK, I'll try to refrain from any more off topic, even if it is about real life and living.
good luck
have fun and enjoy
garden and eat fresh - try to avoid most anything in a package and avoid can and plastic bottle for sure.
fresh raw lightly cooked good. Package, proceed not so much. Al cans plastic bottle NO

 

[Brando]

Last week, a taxi driver won a court case against Tesla with respect to unlimited supercharging. (Tesla won the more important part of the case in the same court wrt warranty claims). Basically, Tesla can’t retroactively limit supercharging privileges for commercial drivers in the Netherlands as it had tried before.

The court case does support future potential cases in the Netherlands that are build on more informal communication with Tesla at the time of purchase (like text on the Tesla website and assurances by the sales person) and that go beyond the rights obtained through formal purchase contract language. I am specifically thinking about FSD here obviously. I believe a Dutch customer asking for a remedy for non delivery of FSD through the courts will be granted one.

Hat-tip : (link and text in Dutch)

Oh, truth in advertising. Believe it or not here in the USA, land of the free and home of the brave, we used to have and make some small attempts to hold corporations to that. Glad to see someone still trying to hold companies to their word. One would hope this driver isn't unreasonable. But that is why the courts get involved. right?

Bet this guy keeps Model S for 8 years. Interesting to get an update 2015+8=2023 ?
complaint about "wind noise" ? Never thought about noise in a New York taxi perhaps Amsterdam is quieter.

thanks, interesting read - google translate seems close enough.

QUESTION? I believe I read this Taxi company started using Model X (did they replace any Model S).
Can you find any interviews of how Model X vs Model S or 2015 Model S vs 2017 vehicles compare?
Also, any other electric vehicles being used for this taxi route ?

thanks.

 

[Intl Professor]

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

You raise a very important point and, as usual, eloquently and succinctly. There's no clear response.

Moral judgments are always compromised in practice because of contingencies and conflicts among rules of behavior. That's why I like Kant's categorical imperative which in short sounds like this: "when in doubt, try to act in concert with a universal rule that anyone would apply to the situation at hand." One way to advance discussion is to change the subject or more positively, "frame the issue."

When considering the quality of the Chinese and Saudi regimes they both tread heavily on those within reach and infractions must always be called out. That is best done by the pure of heart and the U.S. record domestically and abroad is not helpful, especially as we are currently, along with others in Eastern Europe, lowering the perch of moral standards. Often disguised as protection of cultural identity, it smells with the reek of white supremacy.

If we frame the relative worth of the regimes in what they offer the world, I would give credit to China for joining others in a sincere attack on climate change and balance that with criticism of the Saudis for advancing the Wahhabi or even Salafist version of Islam worldwide through financial and other support to mosques.

On another scale of value, it looks like the Saudi approach to punishment is designed to provoke terror by losing both life and limbs, but not in that order, as a lesson to other enemies of the state, while China's could be even more insidious because hidden in secrecy.

There is no clear response, only diversion of attention. For example, to lean on an old joke, "what do you get by cross breeding an Elephant with a Rhino?"

We shall see how Elon handles your dilemma if there is a plan for Saudi Arabia and Tesla. We know the answer for China which has long been a tempting market, going back to the days of British/French sales of opium and earlier.

 

[neroden]

Very little. Texas collects and retains 6.25% vehicle sales tax on nearly every Tesla sold to a Texas resident. The exception is when a Texas resident travels to California to take possession of the vehicle and pays California's 7.5% vehicle sales tax and other fees. Under those circumstances the credit applies, but only up to the 6.25%. Texas buyers who take possession in California pay an extra 1.25% (plus miscellaneous fees) that buyers who have their vehicle delivered to a Texas Service Center (or their residence) do not.

I had not realized that California does not assess sales tax on cars drop-shipped to Texas.

 

[neroden]

If we frame the relative worth of the regimes in what they offer the world, I would give credit to China for joining others in a sincere attack on climate change and balance that with criticism of the Saudis for advancing the Wahhabi or even Salafist version of Islam worldwide through financial and other support to mosques.

Clarification: Wahhabi is a particular, extremist, fanatical, authoritarian branch of Salafiism. All of Salafiism is fundamentalist -- it's basically got the exact same history as fundmentalist Christianity, complete with (false) claims that they are going back to the "fundamentals" of Islam.

But the primary branch of traditional Salafiism is "quietist", telling Muslims to live pure lives separate and apart from the world. Some other branches try to make their own communities and enforce laws there (like the Hasidic Jews). The Wahhabi version, which promotes basically the same philsophy as Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/Daesh), is very different and very extremist. There's no difference between Daesh's ruling philsophy and that of the Wahhabi leadership in Saudi Arabia.

Islamic scholars in other areas have called Wahhabiism a "Satanic faith". Wahhabis claim to practice Hanbali jurisprudence, but the respected elder jurists of the Hanbali school denounced them.

Much of this is in the Wikipedia article, which is actually quite accurate (I got most of this information elsewhere):

Hamid Algar lists three "elements" Wahhabism and Salafism had in common.

1. above all disdain for all developments subsequent to al-Salaf al-Salih (the first two or three generations of Islam),
2. the rejection of Sufism, and
3. the abandonment of consistent adherence to one of the four or five Sunni Madhhabs (schools of fiqh).

And "two important and interrelated features" that distinguished Salafis from the Wahhabis:

1. a reliance on attempts at persuasion rather than coercion in order to rally other Muslims to their cause; and
2. an informed awareness of the political and socio-economic crises confronting the Muslim world.[75]

 

[avoigt]

e-tron news

• Audi informed that they will be delayed with the e-Tron delivery because of SW issues. People familiar with that matter talk about a few months. The original plan was December.
• Its reported that they are also challenged by LG asking for 10% more for the Battery.

Thats what happens when you make yourself dependent on the most important element of an EV in a supply constraint market.

Unfortunately I am not surprised about their SW challenges and expect much more to come. German car manufacturers have no clue about SW and you just do not change it by hiring a few developers. Its a fundamental change thats required.

About Battery costs, German Auto companies are used to be able to game the suppliers and press them on costs. They have no experience what it means to be in a supply constraint market. The 10% increase will hurt Audi tremendously as they cannot reduce costs or ask the consumer to pay more. So, that means higher losses per EV sold for them.

Every few months Audi misses to bring their e-Tron out means a loss of consumers for the long run. Why? Well people will buy a Tesla instead and that will be what they measure the e-Tron than against. If they would have gotten an e-Tron as their first EV they likely would have praised and defended the car against all other EVs.

Software-Probleme: Audi verschiebt offenbar Auslieferungsstart des e-tron

Audi Elektro-SUV e-tron kommt später

 

[neroden]

e-tron news

• Audi informed that they will be delayed with the e-Tron delivery because of SW issues. People familiar with that matter talk about a few months. The original plan was December.
• Its reported that they are also challenged by LG asking for 10% more for the Battery.

Thats what happens when you make yourself dependent on the most important element of an EV in a supply constraint market.

Unfortunately I am not surprised about their SW challenges and expect much more to come. German car manufacturers have no clue about SW and you just do not change it by hiring a few developers. Its a fundamental change thats required.

About Battery costs, German Auto companies are used to be able to game the suppliers and press them on costs. They have no experience what it means to be in a supply constraint market. The 10% increase will hurt Audi tremendously as they cannot reduce costs or ask the consumer to pay more. So, that means higher losses per EV sold for them.

Every few months Audi misses to bring their e-Tron out means a loss of consumers for the long run. Why? Well people will buy a Tesla instead and that will be what they measure the e-Tron than against. If they would have gotten an e-Tron as their first EV they likely would have praised and defended the car against all other EVs.

Software-Probleme: Audi verschiebt offenbar Auslieferungsstart des e-tron

I'm gobsmacked that both Jaguar and Audi are failing to get the *software* right on their cars. I mean, it's not that complicated. Control systems for electric motors are a bit tricky, but substantially simpler than control systems for ICE engines. The rest of it is... just normal software. Well, some of it is real-time, but use Real Time Linux or one of the other standard UNIX-like RTOSes.

I guess you're right that they just have no clue.

 

[brian45011]

I had not realized that California does not assess sales tax on cars drop-shipped to Texas.

Texas is bringing back, after a three year hiatus, the $2,500 credit for new EVs purchased or leased from a licensed dealer.

Texas allows an offset to the vehicle sales tax for the value of a trade-in; but, in Texas, Tesla sends most non-Tesla trade ins to AutoNation or similar used car operations. Many of the Teslas traded-in appear to be consigned/sold to Texas Direct Auto.

There was an effort to avoid the Texas vehicle sales tax several years ago by claiming a "hydrogen powered" exemption but the Comptroller squelched it.

 

[Intl Professor]

Response here because off topic elsewhere.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

The Japanese have also complained their rote learning approach to education does not foster creativity. At the risk of racism, Asians have an advantage in a more collaborative culture.

Employer's frequently complain university graduates here are not accustomed to working well with others hence for decades I used group projects in all classes with a heavy weighting of about 30% toward the overall grade. Experience showed the better students hated it and perhaps the poorer ones took advantage so I built in an evaluation by peers as part of the overall grade for individuals. My colleagues despised that, ever protective of their exclusive power over the grade.

I think most really successful creative people build on others' work. Of course in the case of the Nobel for uranium and the double helix, the research publication and hence the award ignored contributions by women in both cases. I'm sure there are other contrarian examples.

 

[EVNow]

At the risk of racism, Asians have an advantage in a more collaborative culture.

Not us, South Asians

 

[elasalle]

Still waiting for Earnings date to be confirmed... Thought a good earnings would be announced on time ..??

 

[oneday]

Still waiting for Earnings date to be confirmed... Thought a good earnings would be announced on time ..??

My tin foil hat theory is that the delay is due to the SEC settlement. Tesla is supposed to provide oversight of Elon on the conference calls. Due to this Elon is deciding if he even wants to still do them or Elon has yet to agree to the methods thus far proposed by attorneys.

 

[EinSV]

There is no delay. The most common time for Tesla's ER is the first Wednesday of the second month following the end of the quarter (first Wednesday of February, May, August, November). Consistent with that, nasdaq.com has the expected date as Wednesday, November 7. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report

Someone posted not too long ago that over the past year or two Tesla typically announces the date of the ER about two weeks in advance.

So IMO the most likely scenario is an announcement this week of the ER being scheduled for Nov. 7 (there can always be variations).

 

[steve3]

There is no delay. The most common time for Tesla's ER is the first Wednesday of the month. Consistent with that, nasdaq.com has the expected date as Wed. Nov. 7.

Someone posted not too long ago that over the past year or two Tesla typically announces the date of the ER about two weeks in advance.

So IMO the most likely scenario is an announcement this week of the ER being scheduled for Nov. 7 (there can always be variations).

Yep, no delay expected, normal timing as @EinSV points out. For ex, ‘17Q4 ER was Feb 7 this year, “seemingly” late only due to Feb 1 falling on a Thursday. Nov is the same.

 

[dmckinstry]

Still waiting for Earnings date to be confirmed... Thought a good earnings would be announced on time ..??

At the rate things are proceeding, I expect some morning they'll say "Q3 '18 Update online, Conference Call at 2:00 pm PDT this afternoon." That gives them the opportunity pick the date for optimum impact.

 

[SpaceCash]

At the rate things are proceeding, I expect some morning they'll say "Q3 '18 Update online, Conference Call at 2:00 pm this afternoon." That gives them the opportunity pick the date for optimum impact.

I keep fantasizing about an impromptu Q3 earnings report. No reason they can't. Probably won't happen