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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I hope you aren't actually serious about it. You way, way, waaaaay overestimate influence and power of short sellers.
If I was to believe many comments here about them, I would see some sinister Cthulhu-like entity having it's tentacles everywhere. I mean, it is understandable you guys don't like shorts very much, but come on.

Hell, Russia hiring assassins (because of SpaceX rekting their commercial part of space industry into oblivion) is more likely - at least they have proven history of doing so for people that sufficiently displeased their el presidento.
I've been suspecting that a lot of the disinformation is coming from Russia, which has a huge oil industry (the main source of Putin's profits) threatened by Tesla. So that's why I started thinking assassins. No, the US financial guys wouldn't do it, but Russia might.

Oh, also... Russia does financial manipulations through shell companies, too. Do we know that there *aren't* Russian agents acting as big short-sellers? We don't know that. It would certainly account for the short-sellers who always sell at the bottom and cover at the top; they probably have a budget for stock manipulation.

Yes, this is an unlikely conspiracy theory, but it's not *that* unlikely, given what we know about Putin's kleptocracy.
 
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After many years of carefully observing the various species of bears in their various habitats I thought I would share my field notes with the hope that others can add-to & refine

Note: please do not confuse with the upcoming catalog of trolls, which in many ways are like bears, just more hideous and not as smart.

CPA-bears (Ursuline Whocares): A sub-species of Finance Bears. Mostly ignored by bears and bulls alike. Usually only seen talking to other CPA-bears about acrane ratios that they believe show “The Truth” on how all businesses must be run. Oddly, CPA-bears are never seen running a business.

NYC-bears (Delusional Ursulines): A sub-species of Finance Bear. Strong belief that their experience with a German Car on occasional weekends and size of paycheck from Wall St. gives them flawless insights into every company. Especially ones in California.

Oil Bears (Ursuline Major Stinkus): Usually found in the Upper Midwest and Gulf Coast states. Wish to roll and swim in the glorious black treasure, to bath in it, to convert it to electricity so to power the universe. Believes all who do not bow to the miracle of oil to be incredibly naive and unable to see the way of the world.

Tech Bears (Sotiresome Ursulines): Believe that any business can only be successful if it follows their exact advice on building software companies and that any business that requires equipment is an automatic failure.

Catastrophic Bears (Ursuline Crywolf): Able to use a single tweet and a whole hour worth of work to determine that Elon is the world’s largest scammer (don’t mind the actual cars on the road) leading the world’s largest and obvious fraud since Enron. May cite their extensive experience on twitter or management of thousands of dollars in their investment fund as proof of their domain expertise.

Needless to say I have also seen various mixed offspring, many of which have even more disturbing traits, usually verbal or twitter diarrhea.
Thanks for this :)
 
Hi, everybody. I created some new charts about S/X production and delivery timing for North America and the data shows that Tesla is still trying to deliver as many cars as possible within the quarter they were produced. First I thought they are trying to maximize the delivery numbers for the quarter but that doesn't make any sense because if they don't deliver 5K cars this quarter, then those will be delivered the next quarter anyway. This way, they would have the exact same quarterly delivery numbers except for the first quarter they stop doing this.

It looks like, what they are actually trying to do is to deliver cars within the same quarter they were produced. This looks more like a balance sheet issue to me. I'm not sure what to make of it but I thought I would mention it here. The data source is the Model S/X Order Tracker spreadsheet.

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from electrek;
The total value of the contract is actually 4 billion euros ($4.7 billion), as confirmed by BMW today, for the next few years and the difference will be coming from CATL’s current factories in China.

The battery manufacturer currently has a 17.5 GWh production capacity which is quickly ramping up to 24 GWh with a new factory.

so with that said, GF1 estimated output is ever shifting, originally 35-50GWh now some people talking 100-150GWh - is this outlandish?

i saw someone post negatively after i brought up CATL that the window of opportunity is closing. teslas ambition is 10 GFs. other mf will need to expand as well.
i don’t imagine anyone that knows anything doubted the inevitable commoditization of batteries.
Tesla/Pana still seems to be leader in the quality and efficiency across product lines.

no doubt the gap will narrow as time goes on. but this does not mean that tesla isn’t situated well.
 
looks like, what they are actually trying to do is to deliver cars within the same quarter they were produced. This looks more like a balance sheet issue to me. I'm not sure what to make of it but I thought I would mention it here.

A possibility:
The closer the vehicle sale is to when Tesla receives the components, the more effective cash on hand they have due to the supplier net terms.

This would show up in the quarter numbers and the running operation.
 
Another possibility for the "deliver in same quarter": they have less trouble counting production than counting deliveries, and they're trying to calculate the numbers for the tax credit :) I don't actually believe this.

With growth, they initially would have had larger hangovers of cars-in-delivery each quarter; this probably looks bad on the balance sheet. Musk did say they were going away from the "end of quarter push" and attempting to switch to evenly paced delivery, but that's new and probably hasn't been done yet.
 
Now this is the kind of news that will bring anATH !!!

I’m going to bet that this is the news and numbers Elon was referring to.

Cheers to the longs
Not sure. As a long, sure, expected, but good news. But the short/media narrative can be "look 4.5 Bn needed to be raised again".

I don`t mind as they spend this to double production, and they`ll do it in a huge and important market. Plus, most of this will be spent on tangible assets that have real, countable value. But don`t think the shorts can`t build a negative narrative around this. They`ve managed to do that around the super positive Model 3 ramp news as well...

We may need profits for 1-3 quarters in a row to fully discredit the short thesis. (The first quarter of profits will still be spun as a one-time trickery, deception by Elon).
 
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