General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[nursebee]

I have been an investing fan of TESLA for a long time. I sat in a Beta model S that I recall had mercedes seats. Within a year of the IPO I followed the company, slept well owning through turmoil, was handsomely rewarded. I even owned LEAPS. When the model S came out, did well, price jacked up, I sold out thinking that the model 3 would be needed before price moved so much again. I got back in last year and have slept well through lots of this volatility. I have been swinging for the fences, with price targets 10x current price. I have been singing the bull story to any that would here.

All of that has now changed. Here is why:
1. The take private discussion has me no longer trusting ELON.
2. My hope has clouded my thinking. TSLA is slower to execute than they broadcast. Future value might still be true but this alone is not reason to hold.
3. We have enough money and have already won the game. Sticking with low cost index funds we still might die with 5-10 X our money.
4. Retirement is on the horizon. Time to no longer be bold.
5. As a former stay at home retail trader, the wild price swings scare me! I think this is a mature position not recognized by new traders.
6. Tesla sales calls suggest they are really pushing for short term profits. They even called again when I said to not call again.
7. I would rather TSLA not push for profits, I want growth!
8. 5% decrease in mutual fund ownership...Are they distributing to retail?
9. I saw a well to do large gentleman in a model 3. He looked uncomfortable.
10. Computer screen time following everything was affecting quality of life.

I am no longer drinking this Koolaid. Sold out a week ago.

OK, now there are more reasons.
Glad I aint holding the bag.

 

[sweter]

But does that even apply here? I ask since it was Elon that made the announcement not Tesla. Would I have to notify them in advance if I was going to announce that I was thinking about buying Tesla?

I think points 12. and 13. of the complaint explain it (maybe not the "law", but the reasoning):

12. Musk created a profile on the social media application Twitter(twitter.com/elonmusk) in 2009. Since that time, Musk often used Twitter to communicate aboutTesla’s business. Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer described Musk’s Twitter statements as a“strong channel of marketing” with Musk acting as a “spokesman” for Tesla.13.
13. On November 5, 2013, Tesla publicly filed a Form 8-K with the Commission stating that it intended to use Musk’s Twitter account as a means of announcing material information to the public about Tesla and its products and services and has encouraged investors to review the information about Tesla published by Musk via his Twitter account.

To my mind this means that there's no distinction between Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla or Elon Musk a Private Citizen on his Twitter account.

 

[JRP3]

I wouldn't say the SEC is out of control, generally. They do a lot of investigations that are sensible. But they also ignore some flagrant things, and wrist slap others, depending on who is involved. This Tesla/Elon witch hunt was surely triggered by those who DO intend harm, and SEC clearly has no leg to stand on (they are at best, balancing on their tippy-toes, like an overweight man pretending to be a ballet dancer).

Just like how no guilty parties had any real consequences for 2008, the actual guilty parties don't even get a glance from the SEC when it comes to Tesla, instead they're trying to hang Elon.

That sounds like the definition of an out of control government agency, unequal application of rules.

 

[mongo]

To my mind this means that there's no distinction between Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla or Elon Musk a Private Citizen on his Twitter account.

Phrasing, context, and content.
Elon's twitter as an official channel is to cover the SEC rules about disclosure of anything that might be claimed to be material. Not to make it 100% official Tesla news.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Thread: $TSLA Bulls are united against $TSLAQ

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[elasalle]

The SEC created a situation where the Shorts have their cake and can eat it too.
had EM accepted the proposals, the SP would still be down

So actually am glad they decided to fight it. So glad that the board and Tesla longs are behind it.

If it actually goes to 240 instead of 420, I am backing up the truck ... 270 is safe zone for such a bummer day

 

[Matias]

But does that even apply here? I ask since it was Elon that made the announcement not Tesla. Would I have to notify them in advance if I was going to announce that I was thinking about buying Tesla?

Maybe, if you were Tesla’s CEO and Chairman of the Board.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla achieves Model 3 production goal for record quarter with 2 days still to go

According to a reliable source familiar with Tesla’s production, the automaker had a strong week of production and managed to bring the total number Model 3 produced to over 51,000 vehicles.

For the first time in months, Tesla was able to produce about 5,000 Model 3 vehicles over seven days.

The total production for the week was at around 6,700 vehicles – bringing the total for the quarter to about 77,400 vehicles

 

[ls7corvete]

Thread: $TSLA Bulls are united against $TSLAQ

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

Just spent a few minutes on TSLAQ, wow. Keep up the good work VA.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just spent a few minutes on TSLAQ, wow. Keep up the good work VA.

It's brutal out there, but bulls have the facts and fundamentals on their side.

 

[Dangleitus]

It's brutal out there, but bulls have the facts and fundamentals on their side.

If we are talking about the structural viability of tesla’s business model, it is not there per the data we have up to date. Q3 withstanding, there is no long term evidence that the company can continue to exist as a going concern given the current debt due within a year, and capital requirements just to run the business. Being long this name is risky for a number of reasons. The SEC has moved, which means the DOJ could not be far behind. Lawsuits will begin to roll in as more investors continue to feel pain. Next, a moodys downgrade followed by major institutions unloading shares as well.


The risks of holding over the weekend seem too large to ignore. Do you really believe that these investigations, and lawsuits will pass by? What happens if they are unable to turn a gaap profit in the third quarter?

 

[JRP3]

Concerntrollsayswhut?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

If we are talking about the structural viability of tesla’s business model, it is not there per the data we have up to date. Q3 withstanding, there is no long term evidence that the company can continue to exist as a going concern given the current debt due within a year, and capital requirements just to run the business. Being long this name is risky for a number of reasons. The SEC has moved, which means the DOJ could not be far behind. Lawsuits will begin to roll in as more investors continue to feel pain. Next, a moodys downgrade followed by major institutions unloading shares as well.


The risks of holding over the weekend seem too large to ignore. Do you really believe that these investigations, and lawsuits will pass by? What happens if they are unable to turn a gaap profit in the third quarter?

The DOJ lawsuit is pretty much contingent on the SEC lawsuit. If the SEC can't prove recklessness, then the DOJ has even less of a chance to prove fraud. I think it was you who argued that the SEC lawsuit wasn't even focusing on intent/motive, which is a prerequisite for proving fraud. Someone has already filed a frivolous shareholder lawsuit, so I imagine those will continue and simply add to the noise.

Those things don't affect the fundamentals of the company regarding profitability and demand of Tesla's products. So there's no concern here.

As for the debt that's due in Mar 2019, I think you're looking at it backwards. If a company can sell its products profitably (estimating ~$1B FCF in Q1 2019) and has operating cash available, why are you dwelling on the upcoming $970M debt that's coming due? You can't run a business by worrying about how much money you owe - focus on earning enough to cover your debts instead.

 

[ggr]

It is at least that chaotic. (Bear in mind, I'm extremely positive and long. This is just the facts, gentlepeople.)
We are day 1 line waiters and existing owners.

Aug 30, we changed our configuration to add the Performance upgrade package to our performance M3. (My fault, I misunderstood what the options were).

Sept 6, scheduler A informed me that our car would be available between today (22nd) and 29th.

Around Sept 10, the web site still shows the old configuration, so I called and spoke to someone who said it usually takes a couple of weeks for the web site to update.

Sept 17, scheduler B tells me the car will be delivered on the 19th or 20th. Web site still shows the old configuration. So I call again.
Phone person C puts me on hold for about half an hour (note: all phone calls take about 15 minutes before talking to the first person) to call the delivery specialist (note, not A or B). C tells me that yes, the configuration change is in the system correctly, and the delivery specialist will call me soon.

Sept 18, no call from delivery specialist, so I call again. In the meantime I've drawn down our line of credit to pay for the car. Phone person D sends a message to DS who isn't answering the phone. Later, I hear from DS (in Las Vegas, I'm in San Diego), who tells me there is no such vehicle to be delivered. At least I know this person's name and have an email address for him.

19th, radio silence. 20th, I email to request an update on what's going on.

That's it. No answer to that email.

And a followup. I'm extremely disappointed. I heard nothing more until:
20:47PDT Tuesday 25, got a text message(!) saying the car was available for delivery between 26th-30th. I was on the east coast visiting relatives so was already in bed, and didn't see it until early the next morning.
06:30 Wed 26th, I replied to the text saying the 29th was the only day in that range that would work. Also emailed to my Delivery Advisor, and tried calling him. The call was unanswered, and the email got an autoreply saying that he was out and would be back on the 30th. It gave an email address for a Person E to contact in the meantime. Then got a text thanking me for my quick reply, and saying that they were emailing that to my DA. I replied to the text telling them that apparently my DA was away. No response to that text.
Then I wrote to Person E (the DA's alternate) and got an autoreply that he wasn't available until the 28th. No response to that email either.

So, since Sept 18th, I have not had a single meaningful response except for yet another person sending me misinformation about availability. I still don't know the exact amount I'm supposed to pay, so at this point I probably couldn't take delivery even if they did suddenly say the car was available.

To be on topic I have to point out that this has ruined my belief that they were going to beat on delivery numbers. They're just too disorganized for that. Now I have to go wash the Roadster so I can go help with deliveries tomorrow, although it'll be hard, knowing that somewhere in that yard is my car but they won't give it to me, and in fact will probably have given it to someone else who wasn't out of town at the time.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

And a followup. I'm extremely disappointed. I heard nothing more until:
20:47PDT Tuesday 25, got a text message(!) saying the car was available for delivery between 26th-30th. I was on the east coast visiting relatives so was already in bed, and didn't see it until early the next morning.
06:30 Wed 26th, I replied to the text saying the 29th was the only day in that range that would work. Also emailed to my Delivery Advisor, and tried calling him. The call was unanswered, and the email got an autoreply saying that he was out and would be back on the 30th. It gave an email address for a Person E to contact in the meantime. Then got a text thanking me for my quick reply, and saying that they were emailing that to my DA. I replied to the text telling them that apparently my DA was away. No response to that text.
Then I wrote to Person E (the DA's alternate) and got an autoreply that he wasn't available until the 28th. No response to that email either.

So, since Sept 18th, I have not had a single meaningful response except for yet another person sending me misinformation about availability. I still don't know the exact amount I'm supposed to pay, so at this point I probably couldn't take delivery even if they did suddenly say the car was available.

To be on topic I have to point out that this has ruined my belief that they were going to beat on delivery numbers. They're just too disorganized for that. Now I have to go wash the Roadster so I can go help with deliveries tomorrow, although it'll be hard, knowing that somewhere in that yard is my car but they won't give it to me, and in fact will probably have given it to someone else who wasn't out of town at the time.

Just deliver a car to yourself tomorrow.

 

[JRP3]

To be on topic I have to point out that this has ruined my belief that they were going to beat on delivery numbers. They're just too disorganized for that.

Or maybe they are just targeting the easiest and quickest deliveries?

 

[Buddyroe]

And a followup. I'm extremely disappointed. I heard nothing more until:
20:47PDT Tuesday 25, got a text message(!) saying the car was available for delivery between 26th-30th. I was on the east coast visiting relatives so was already in bed, and didn't see it until early the next morning.
06:30 Wed 26th, I replied to the text saying the 29th was the only day in that range that would work. Also emailed to my Delivery Advisor, and tried calling him. The call was unanswered, and the email got an autoreply saying that he was out and would be back on the 30th. It gave an email address for a Person E to contact in the meantime. Then got a text thanking me for my quick reply, and saying that they were emailing that to my DA. I replied to the text telling them that apparently my DA was away. No response to that text.
Then I wrote to Person E (the DA's alternate) and got an autoreply that he wasn't available until the 28th. No response to that email either.

So, since Sept 18th, I have not had a single meaningful response except for yet another person sending me misinformation about availability. I still don't know the exact amount I'm supposed to pay, so at this point I probably couldn't take delivery even if they did suddenly say the car was available.

To be on topic I have to point out that this has ruined my belief that they were going to beat on delivery numbers. They're just too disorganized for that. Now I have to go wash the Roadster so I can go help with deliveries tomorrow, although it'll be hard, knowing that somewhere in that yard is my car but they won't give it to me, and in fact will probably have given it to someone else who wasn't out of town at the time.

I had a M3 reservation also. Decided to give it to a relative. He's going through the same exact situation as you've described.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I had a M3 reservation also. Decided to give it to a relative. He's going through the same exact situation as you've described.

Two friends scheduled to get their Model 3s went through this whole delay and cancel and no communication thing too. However one took home delivery on Wednesday and the other today. Tesla seems to be getting the job done, at least within driving range of the factory. The delivery today was by a couple of Tesla engineers who drove the car to my friend's house straight from the factory.

 

[Intl Professor]

Our experience was no immediate response to inquiries, but a few days later things happened fast and we got delivery 9/23 as indicated when prompted vin had been assigned. Also, we turned down even earlier delivery (offered 9/21) because of our planning.

 

[heltok]

What is a drive unit and how many does a dual motor car have?