I half jokingly asked this in January in a Faraday Future related thread, not too many think M3 will outsell Bolt, I was hopeful but not confident myself. Should we vote again now that Bolt is "ramping" to 1500/month. I'm voting yes.
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As I thought, Bolt won that Dec poll with 53.7% of vote for more Bolt in 2017. I'd give M3 a better than 50/50 chance of beating the Bolt in 2017 at this moment.From December: More Model ≡ or Bolts in 2017?
I'm fairly certain that I will see a Model 3 in South Carolina before I see a Bolt.
You can see an M3 now. South Carolina had internet last time I was there, which was a long time ago.
You can buy a Bolt EV now if you are willing.
You should have Bolts in SC (not imported from California or other states) in 3 months, perhaps less.
I'm fairly certain that I will see a Model 3 in South Carolina before I see a Bolt.
How many Fremont and Gigafactory employees do you think ordered the model 3? I think Tesla will keep the model 3 "close to home" for months.
It's definitely possible. Out of the 400K reservation, say 1/2 is US, and 1/2 of that is CA, then you have 100K CA reservations. Excluding people who want AWD, lets say 1/2 of them buy RWD model, that's 50K in CA. If Tesla delivers 50K M3 in 2017 I think it would be on the optimistic side of most people's estimates.Since the #1 market for Teslas is California, and existing Tesla owners are supposed to get theirs first (after CTF/employee cars), it is possible California will consume all Model 3 production for 2017 and perhaps much of 2018.
It's definitely possible. Out of the 400K reservation, say 1/2 is US, and 1/2 of that is CA, then you have 100K CA reservations. Excluding people who want AWD, lets say 1/2 of them buy RWD model, that's 50K in CA. If Tesla delivers 50K M3 in 2017 I think it would be on the optimistic side of most people's estimates.
Edit: but looking at the infrastructure build-out such ass Superchargers, it seems unlikely that Tesla will dump all these new M3 all in CA.
I'm fairly certain that I will see a Model 3 in South Carolina before I see a Bolt.
A lot depends on profitability of the Model 3. If the M3 is not profitable at release time, it is wise to slow down production until profitability can be maintained.
And none are in South Carolina.There should be at least 6 Bolts within 250 miles of you right now for sale. Go to Cars.com and type in your zip.
I think a more interesting question is how many months it will take the M3 to top the InsideEVs monthly US chart.
I expect Tesla to have 3 in the top five by the end of 2017. ;-)