One important aspect of Megapack financials that is worth highlighting is how big of an impact price increases over the past 16 months are likely to have on TE margins in 2023 and especially 2024.
The biggest increases have been for larger systems. For example, a 1000 Megapack order at 3916MWh/970MW currently costs $468/kWh. On July 26, 2021 -- 16 months ago -- a system less than 10% that size was priced at only $280/kWh.
Tesla Megapack Pricing, Specs, Ordering Details and More Revealed - TeslaNorth.com
So the price per installed MWh increased >67% in 16 months!
Price increases for smaller systems were also significant. For example a ~30 MWh (4MWh/MW) system went from $328/kWh to $504/kWh in the same time period -- a 54% increase!
There was also at least one other large price increase in March 2022.
Tesla hikes Megapack prices as backlog extends to next year
Installation estimates have been 18-24 months from order (or more), so it seems likely that the Q3 2022 financials do not reflect any of the 2022 price increases. But the impact on revenues and margins should start showing up over the next 12-24 months.
Although there were cell and chip cost increases a significant chunk of the price increases seems likely to go directly to the bottom line. Combine with (1) US production tax credits (2) other additional revenue/income streams discussed in recent posts in this thread and (3) likely cost reductions as Lathrop rampes up, it seems likely that Megapack margins will skyrocket over the next few years. With Elon estimating 150-200% annual Megapack growth TE could (finally) make a significant positive contribution to margins.
In fact, given the huge Megapack price increases that will be hitting the bottom line over the next couple years this contribution already seems baked in (as long as Tesla can ramp up Megapack production).
*All prices include installation.