Present Analysis of Production Data With Speculation on 5-Seat Production Timing

[jsollender]

Analysis of modelxtracker.com reveals 2000 listings. As there is somewhere between ~20,000-30,000 people who reserved MX, I would use each data point and assume it represents 10-15 similar vehicles, as a small sample (7.5-10%) of reservists have posted data. Of those 2000 listings, 86 of them are for any version with 75 KwH batteries. Using the multiplier of 10-15x, that equates with between 860-1290 people worldwide who have reserved a 75 KwH battery config. With TM putting out maybe 500 cars per week (low estimate, but debatable), they would clear through the full assortment of 75's (except 5 seat versions) in less than 3 weeks. On the other hand, the 1910 90KwH vehicles in modelxtracker, 1196 are unconfirmed, with only 714 confirmed orders, or 37%. If you take that percentage and apply it to 86 listings for 75 KwH reservists, that brings the 75 KwH confirmed orders to 32. Multiply by 10-15 and you only have 320-480 total worldwide orders of 75's, again. That should be one week's worth of production at 500 cars per week. Of the world total 20-30K who reserved, at 37% confirmation rate, that leaves 7400-11,000 total worldwide confirmed orders. Presume that VIN assignments are numerically a representation of total builds (I know the VIN is not linear, and not clear if 8700 VINs have truly been assigned at this stage of production), this would leave perhaps around 3000 more vehicles to assign VINs before the unconfirmed orders will be the last reservists to deal with.
Totally tricked out 75D's can max out at $109,000, which is more profitable to TM than my 5 seat 90D with options to $104,000. So, what I am getting at is that 5 seat variety MX should start to roll out once the few 75D versions go into production. I had thought 90D 5-seaters would start VIN assignment before any 75 variations, but still looks like EM is looking at most profitable to least profitable out of Fremont, with not a whole lot more cars to produce. Anyone want to analyze this data and comment? I know lots of unknowns, but data and stats is all we have to go with at present due to shortage of data from TM.

 

[wang5150]

I agree that the production numbers alone should make delivery of all existing 75D orders (sans 5 seat option) to be completed by July/Aug. However, I'm hearing that coil designs may not even be finalized yet as well as any crash-testing that needs to be repeated with said designs, etc. may be holding up the deliveries.

Again, I'm only hearing this from another reservation holder being informed by their DS.

 

[jsollender]

@wang5150 "I'm hearing that coil designs may not even be finalized yet" is not true. According to @tgbrad he said "I ordered a 75D seven seat with coils back in December. Got my VIN today." So coils are in the wild, not on an engineers computer.

 

[jsollender]

Also interesting as I priced out 3 of the 75D cars posted in When will 75D's start production reporting VIN assignments yesterday. The prices range from $97,000 to $108,000. So my theory, along with everyone else that TM is putting out cars with max profit potential for TM does not entirely hold up. This is based on my specific config priced at $104,000 not getting VIN for 5 seats ahead of 75D's with lower MSRP. Maybe @vperl and I need to be more fanboys and less skeptical on timing, and wait like good little children. I promise I will be good Elon, just get to assigning VINs for 5 seaters, pretty please.

 

[gfb107]

You're making a lot of assumptions based on the report of a single 75D with coils having been assigned a VIN.
Also, having a VIN assigned is not the same as "coils are in the wild"

 

[jsollender]

Would you call it unreleased, not ready for prime time, non-complete engineering or elsewise if someone is confirming a VIN was assigned with the aforementioned product? I do make a few assumptions, with as many potential facts (based on claims by forum members) that is not independently confirmable. We all do this speculation, hoping for a glimmer of hope for when we might get that magical phone call from our DS to pickup our MX. Oui? My overall point was that people with configs like you, MSRP $96,950 (depending on whether you have stock 20" silver versus 20" silver helix for $2500 more, not disclosed by you), are not as profitable to TM as my config. All along many posters have said TM would crank out cars in order of MSRP to maximize profits for TM. That's all....

 

[Porfiry]

So, what I am getting at is that 5 seat variety MX should start to roll out once the few 75D versions go into production. I had thought 90D 5-seaters would start VIN assignment before any 75 variations, but still looks like EM is looking at most profitable to least profitable out of Fremont, with not a whole lot more cars to produce. Anyone want to analyze this data and comment? I know lots of unknowns, but data and stats is all we have to go with at present due to shortage of data from TM.

Talking with a sales guy at the Tesla store last week, his comment was that the 5-seater "has not been designed yet". This was unprompted, as we were talking about what was better for bike transport, S or X. I realize that salespeople aren't necessarily in the loop, but it's a data point. Even the Tesla website says "late 2016", which in Tesla time could mean December 31.

 

[gfb107]

I'm just saying that personally think that 1 person reporting that their Model X with coils was assigned a VIN must be taken with a grain of salt. We heard from a number of people that turned down the SAS upgrade, and none of them are reporting they've been assigned a VIN.

 

[vandacca]

Assigned a VIN, just means that they are in the production queue. After the VIN is assigned, they order parts and at some point in the following weeks production may start. If you recall, many people here were assigned VINs in January, and they didn't receive their cars until April/May, so don't count your chicks before they're hatched! I would guess that a VIN just means that Tesla has a preliminary design for the coils. It's entirely possible that during production they discover issues and the coils may get delayed even further.

 

[jsollender]

totally true, @gfb107 I must take everything with a grain of salt, including 2 people (Chicago and Netherlands) both reporting VIN assignments of 5 seaters in March and April that modelxtracker could not reach for confirmation, but we have here @tgbrad being asked to confirm his coil suspension and physically responding in the affirmative. What more should we ask of tgbrad to prove what he stated? Seems the over reaching concept here is that there are not too many 75's to produce, so what more should a 5 seat reservist be anticipating ahead of our VIN assignment? I just don't see too many more cars left to produce before 5 seaters, and that means Fremont can't sit idle, they have to build something besides Model S cars.

 

[gfb107]

I just think we need to wait until more people report VINs assigned to Model Xs with coils before concluding that Tesla is ready to start producing Model Xs with coils. Maybe @tgbrad was assigned a VIN by mistake.

 

[ccutrer]

All along many posters have said TM would crank out cars in order of MSRP to maximize profits for TM.

All along they've said they would crank out cars in order to maximize profits. While MSRP may be a decent proxy, it is not exactly true. For example, PUP may cost Tesla $1000, but 90D costs them $8000 above 75D. 90D raises MSRP more, but PUP is a more profitable option.

 

[jsollender]

Totally valid, as we have no idea on TM cost vs sales price for any option. We all agree that the upgraded stereo is not nearly worth its price, but in this rarified air, we sometimes pay just to have these options or those options, but, point taken @ccutrer

 

[ccutrer]

Along that vein, we can probably infer, percentage-wise, that "options" are more profitable than upgraded battery. The retail value guarantee is based on 50% of base price, and 47% of options. A 90D upgrade changes the base price, it doesn't count as an option. I don't think the larger battery dramatically increases their profit margin. But I do think the P ($20K!) and Ludicrous ($10k!! And it's software only!!) upgrades do dramatically increase profit margins. So yeah... black box, we can all guess, but we'll never know. Once we get our cars, we'll be happy and in a year or two won't care much about getting our car 3 months later.

 

[vperl]

Also interesting as I priced out 3 of the 75D cars posted in When will 75D's start production reporting VIN assignments yesterday. The prices range from $97,000 to $108,000. So my theory, along with everyone else that TM is putting out cars with max profit potential for TM does not entirely hold up. This is based on my specific config priced at $104,000 not getting VIN for 5 seats ahead of 75D's with lower MSRP. Maybe @vperl and I need to be more fanboys and less skeptical on timing, and wait like good little children. I promise I will be good Elon, just get to assigning VINs for 5 seaters, pretty please.

My 5 seater is fully loaded P90DL. All options

I am sure they will cash in on this order. But, looks like after September at best

 

[vperl]

Tesla, as noted is not in a hurry to deliver the Model X in a Five seat configuration.
Not new news, however it seems as though Tesla has other Production plans. No one can be assured the five seaters will even be produced this year. I can wait. Pushing out Canadian and European MX is probably the answer.

I can wait. After more than two years it matters not..

Be Happy
Don't Worry.

 

[beths11]

Tesla, as noted is not in a hurry to deliver the Model X in a Five seat configuration.
Not new news, however it seems as though Tesla has other Production plans. No one can be assured the five seaters will even be produced this year. I can wait. Pushing out Canadian and European MX is probably the answer.

I can wait. After more than two years it matters not..

Be Happy
Don't Worry.

I understand your point of view and I was in the same mode back in April. I was ready to wait until May 2017 because I am out of state Oct. - April. Mid April Tesla's Design Studio said "75D June, 5 seats mid 2016" Seemed like I could meet a Sept. date so I ordered (also took advantage of the 70 to 75 free upgrade). Setting expectations and not being able to meet them is not the way to run a company. It is a way to stack your production que.