It isn't all about Trump, but I am inclined to believe there was Russian meddling to help get him elected as he was seen as favourable to their cause,
For now I think NATO and Biden have done a good job of helping Ukraine.
I don't think there was much anyone could have done to stop Russia before things got to this point.
For starters Ukraine needed time to get ready, and Trump also try to delay arms shipments to Ukraine earlier.
Behind the scenes, the US, UK, Canada and Turkey have done a lot to help Ukraine.
if I had to list the countries I don't want to fight in a war in order they are:-
- US
- China
- Turkey
- Israel
- UK
- Canada
- Russia
The Turkish drones have been a big factor in this war, Turkey doesn't quite have the hi-tech Israel has, but they have a lot of gear, and the willingness to use it.
IMO if Trump was in office he would have chosen one of 2 polar extremes:-
- Everything
- Nothing
Sorry to break it to you, but most of the world views him as having the mental capacity of a toddler, and I think we are right.
By toddler I mean 2-3 year old, with eyes only for the lolly jar, what they want, and no capacity to consider the needs of others.
i.e totally lacking, maturity, common-sense and compassion. Or leaders are not great, but I would be very embarrassed if we ever elected a leader that bad, I would consider immigrating.
I would think Australia's military today is more intimidating than Canada's. Canada has a great military tradition being given some serious tasks in both world wars (Canada was one of the three nations who landed at Normandy among other things), but after their experiences in WW II they took a more pacifist approach and the army is only 35,000 troops today.
They are well trained and well equipped, but it's a fairly small force to protect the second largest country on Earth.
And lots of American agree with you about Trump, but that's another discussion that would probably be shut down by moderators...
They have been working to weaken Ukraine ever since the invasion of Crimea.
The Russians believed a large pot of money and propaganda had the local populace on board and that the invasion would be a walk over.
Where and how that large pot on money was actually spent is a matter for speculation.
Russia has also spent a lot of money on "modernising" their army.
But what they really expected with continuing compliance with a list of demands before the invasion, so no actual need to invade as Ukraine would bow the the inevitable.
If Putin was angry it was because Ukraine would not submit to his demand and an invasion was necessary. But at that stage he genuinely though it would take 2-3 days.
The Russian military is more smoke and mirrors than substance. They invest in high tech systems and talk them up, but they don't really live up to the hype.
I saw a comparison of the T-90 to the Abrams written before the invasion that concluded the T-90 was better than the Abrams, but it appears to be just as vulnerable as the T-72, which is a 50 year old tank design. The Russians lost more T-90s in a few weeks than the Americans have lost Abrams in 30 years.
Part of the Russian losses are extremely poor doctrine. They have no concept of operating combined arms and battlefield tactics, which has contributed to their losses, but their equipment has broken down at an alarming rate too.
The modernization of the army was for show. The bulk of their army is still using Soviet era equipment.
The demands the Russians made before the invasion were all over the map, and the demands they have made for peace negotiations after have been all over the map too. They intended to overthrow Ukraine and put in a puppet, then get out. They were sure the Ukrainians would just accept that. The demands before the invasion were just part of the theater they were putting on. The fact that Putin said just before the invasion that he did not recognize Ukraine as a separate country was the truth. He wanted to eliminate Ukrainian sovereignty.
If Russia does manage to pivot to the Donbas only strategy, they might have some success there, but their forces are so degraded they are going to have a tough time doing it. Going more than 90 miles from a rail head is virtually impossible for them and to surround the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas they would have to extend their lines another 100+ miles.
They are also very hard up for equipment. I read something the other day that they set up a depot in western Russia not too far from the Ukrainian border where vehicles from their reserves are being shipped and mechanics are trying to rehab them and make them combat ready. The problem they are facing is the vehicles have often been stripped of anything that could be sold on the black market: electronics, optics, even engines. They had one tank in running condition out of 50 or so delivered to the depot.
They might get some running, but they won't be combat ready. But some high ranking officer will swoop in and order them to ship out x number of vehicles, so they will load up what is there and ship it out and let the field mechanics worry about it. Most will be useless for combat.
The Russians are also dipping into their reserve troops. These are even worse quality than what they fielded a month ago. They are running out of basics like uniforms, rifles, and other basic provisions. There are stories of Russian soldiers being sent out to strip the uniforms off the dead and leaving the bodies in the fields.
The A team was terrible and the B team is going to try and accomplish something the A team couldn't?
The Russians have had more success in the Donbas than any other part of the country. Most of the knocked out Ukrainian equipment I've seen has been there. I give them a slight chance to succeed, but considering what they have to work with, I'm skeptical they will manage to beat the Ukrainians.