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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Great idea, I'll call them Monday to see if they have a user input mechanism. If not, we can bug them for one
I know a guy.Great idea, I'll call them Monday to see if they have a user input mechanism. If not, we can bug them for one
Interesting take, a bit surprising to me but I get your logic. Personally I think if NVDA hits $6-6.5 EPS as I expect we should see $1k before long. But to make it happen they do need to show meaningful QoQ growth or money will shift into the AI cloud providers in anticipation of their pop. (I think the processing shortfall right now for what has been promised by everyone is so significant that NVDA is a better investment.)
TOS was made by Russians and they had to smuggle parts a piece at a time to evade customsPSA:
All you TDA folks.. t-minus TEN MINUTES till final conversion.. the happening is happening..
GET THOSE SCREENSHOTS of basis if you haven’t already.
I’m raising a glass to Ameritrade for the last ~ 30 years of enabling me to make a lot of coin leading into the 2000’s and after, leading into the financial crises and after (this is when I learned to trade options), the recovery after the GFC, 2015, 2018, 2020.
And thanks to the TOS team for making a great product, I’m hopeful that it’s going to be just as supported by your new parent.
Cheers
UPDATE: slightly humorous but mildly concerning update… hopefully, this global solar storm, that NOAA is telling habitants OF EARTH to be prepared for possibly disruptions won’t impact data transfers going on this weekend.
I can see it now: “Uh, well we were just in the middle of your transfer and all the lights went out. when they came back up, all the data was GONE.. you don’t by chance have a backup, do you?”
;-0
Hope they don’t tinker with TOS
“The transformation
ISSSS
COMPLEEEETE”
- wringing hands emoji -
This is also in conjunction with the reporting thatn the C shift at Texas for Model Y production has been throttled. (Still unconfirmed)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
people seem to be at a wait and see now as AI seem to be heating up with competition and the fears of a rug pull. Not helping when Imotep call them out this morning as being potentially over values
Fed's Kashkari: Be realistic about what A.I. can do for economy
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned Friday against expecting too much to come out of artificial intelligence technology. I'm very bullish on technology,” Kashkari said, adding: “I would love to see even 10% of the A.I. hype become true. But, he added, “let's be a...
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
bballshinobi
Member
One thing I've learned the last few years trading TSLA is to always inverse the sentiment of the investor thread. If people aer gloating there, time to buy some puts. If people are fighting and bickering, time to buy calls. I think I will also start inversing this thred lol. We were all on the same page before the ER, and I am sure the MM caught wind of that
In a gold rush sell the shovels.
There is so much money that is going to be spent in this segment that core providers have little risk in the next 24 months. NVDA does not have serious competition for at least 36 months. Their pace of innovation suggests that they will make another step-change in the market well before then.
Most of the business AI initiatives will fail or drag out another 5 years, but there is actually a huge number of applications that really benefit from the technology that will become more accessible.
SpaceXaddict
Member
So, I've been managing a losing trade from Earnings week, and was researching some methods and came across this article that seems kinda actually bonkers. I have had a bit of wine. I'm not sure this wasn't written by AI that is hallucinating. But I present it here for your (possible) weekend amusement:
PS - I apologize if this is inappropriate or violates some rules, please accept my apology in advance.
PS - I apologize if this is inappropriate or violates some rules, please accept my apology in advance.
SpaceXaddict
Member
Have been using Tasty Trade. Loved their UI on the web. But they reworked it and now I am finding it a fair bit less functional, but slowly figuring out how to do the stuff I wanted to do. (Still can't figure out how to add or delete a leg from an options trade though.)
This is kind of the strategy that I’ve stumbled into. ITM CCs are great (especially lately with TSLA) because you not only burn off time value, you can also gain the whole cost of the contract if the SP drops down to your strike, which protects you against downside kind of like a long put.
it's not ludicrous
you're not going to believe this, but i rly
the strategy mentioned by the article (yes, i read the entire thing)i spent the better part of the last 4(?) years trying this and that going around in circles, and came to a conclusion that the Wheel (see page 1) using DITM CC is the best that works for me - i nowadays sleep better and i no longer have to check the market every few minutes or so
i don't even need 4 monitors anymore so that i can "see" everything about the market and stock movement
just glancing on one TradingView chart at the iPad while on the kitchen is all i need
why? because the article is bang-on correct: with DITM CC, i can guess the direction wrong and still make money; all i need at setup is vanna + gamma + OI (in that order) and off i go
the downside is that
- you make little money; if you are greedy or if you need a large fixed income, this strategy is not for you
- this works for TSLA but the prems are too low (think CENTS) for reasonable R/R; SMCI (at 800) -c770 gives $1070 weekly income PER CONTRACT; who doesn't want 72% annualized ROC (in a perfect world)? If you use LEAPS instead of buying stock, you can even triple the ROC
at the very extreme worst-case scenario, wait until the stock recovers before selling again; the only way you lose capital on DITM CC is if stock goes to 0 (Elon went all-in out of control)
another thing i learned over the years (and especially nowadays) is: take profits when you see them, there is ALWAYS a round 2 opportunity coming. The round 2 doesn't have to be the same CC strategy again, next time it can be Straddle or Strangle or IC or CSP, etc
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judging whether a 5m candle is buyable or not, you dont have to look very far. One or 2 days worth of price action is enough. Say the stock went to 300. The next day it drops from 300 to 292. If you are scalping on the 5m timeframe, maybe 292 is cheap enough to buy with the goal of selling at 295. What happened in the stock the day, the week, or the month before is not your concern. because your plan is to get in n out within minutes, your expected profit should be small. Once its bounced to 295, it may very well drop again within the hour and break 292.
a 2 hour candle is different. To appear cheap on the 2H, the chart has to encompass at least 2 weeks worth of price action. It has to encompass most likely some local top n/or bottom. It requires a much fuller view of the picture. As such, the strength of the bounce as well as the stickiness of the 2H bottom should be a lot higher. If the stock went from 200 to 300, most likely it wont be cheap on the 2h untill 270. Once you catch this bottom. you expect to ride it up for much longer, maybe 3 days, for a much higher profit. You also expect 270 to hold for much longer than 292 did.
The higher the timeframe is, the more extremely the stock has to move to be considered cheap or expensive. When we are crashing, it will take the weekly or even monthly to become cheap before a reversal. Stocks usually dont go straight down, because at certain points, participants will look at it and say its dropped enough, it should bounce here. at first maybe they btd at 292. Then 285. Then 270. Then 250. The weaker it becomes, the lower the temporary floor becomes, as people use a higher and higher timeframe to judge whether its buyable. The underlying sentiment will evolve like this:
5-15m: Nothing wrong with Tesla. Just MMD. Maybe -5% from ath.
It lowers prices and some big red candles appear.
1h: ok, theres something wrong here. demand may be a bit weak, but more delivery should make it ok. Maybe -10% from high.
Tesla shuts down factory. Even bigger red candles on the chart.
Daily: ok so maybe this Q is going to suck but Ima buy here maybe Elon is gonna say something good on the call. Maybe -25% from ATH.
Elon outright says we dont even want to sell cars anymore. Stock crashes.
Weekly: ok maybe this entire year is going to be *sugar*. but im going to buy here in case fsd is solved. Maybe -50%.
Moving to a higher and higher timeframe means participants are pricing in good/bad news that have a longer and longer impact on the SP. The funny thing about pricing in sonething that turns out to be not so, is the reversal is going to be equally, if not a bit more violent than the drop. Therefore, the higher the timeframe on which the SL appears cheap, the higher the expected bounce.
Dont confuse being cheap with being undervalued. Being cheap requires the collective sentiment of mk participants. Valuation is mostly constant. Sentiment changes day to day. Maybe its dropped too hard too fast. Maybe its been bleeding for too long. Maybe a bit of both. Fundamentals are only a small part of the construction of price action. The lower the timeframe, the less relevant fundamentals are.
Everybody uses a different combination of indicators to tell whether a stock is buyable and for what purpose. Someone can say Im not gonna touch TSLA until its at 100 while someone else can say Im gonna buy it here at 167 for a 1% bounce. Both can be right.
The stock became cheap on the 1h at 176 and bounced. Its broken 176 so things are not as rosy as thought. Now the 2H is in play. Lets see if it bounces here or wait for the 4H to appear cheap, which can be $10 lower.
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Yes, DITM CC's are great until TSLA goes on a +100% rampage for no specific reason, as it doesn't then you're screwed...
So OK to do with a handful, but too many and it can turn ugly, but at least they aren't at risk of early assignment like puts, well in principle they are, but never seems to happen
I has 25x -c165's that went badly ITM in the recent pop above $180, I was already managing 100x -c175's, so rolled the -c165's out to 5/24, and as of now they're OTM again, so yes it can work out
But I also know of someone who's still rolling -c135's from early last year - they had a chance to get out jest before earnings, but probably, like most of us, expected the SP to drop more, so I suspect still holding them
Might get another bite of the cherry with Q2 results
Side anecdotal note.
I'm actually moving on this offer. Wife's Honda lease ends in a month. We were going to buy out the lease since our milage is so low. Wanted to just sell it and get her a Y but no way was I paying 7-9% (on excellent credit rating) on a car loan to get the Y.
Probably will put the order in tonight or tomorrow.
That was very helpful. I understand the basic concept better now. But I still don't know what the candle should look like to appear cheap. In your example of stock going to 300, what will the candle look like at 270 to tell you it is cheap now?
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