thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
How would SP react on Monday? Price cut usually mean down….but this seem to be a good move?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
not the candle itself, but I use momentum indicators such as norm. MACD, RSI and MFI to tell when it is both oversold and running out of seller.
good for consumers but doesn't tesla have bank partners? the company has to cover the difference in interest rates (buy down the rate difference), which means this hidden cost isn't free money... not sure the WS bean counters would like this impact on margin
ie, if real APR is 7%, tesla has to eat 6.01% so you and i can get 0.99%
it gets worse; if treasury rates are 5% then tesla spends 11.01% due to lost opportunity
UNLESS... tesla is doing its own payments and interests aka be the bank and direct lender
Tesla has a lot in treasury, in short duration assets, so its really more about that loss of interest between potential earned interest and the interest rate they make available.. so close to ~ 4.25% they would be “giving up”, or about 3% net of taxes on the interest bearing amount.good for consumers but doesn't tesla have bank partners? the company has to cover the difference in interest rates (buy down the rate difference), which means this hidden cost isn't free money... not sure the WS bean counters would like this impact on margin
ie, if real APR is 7%, tesla has to eat 6.01% so you and i can get 0.99%
it gets worse; if treasury rates are 5% then tesla spends 11.01% due to lost opportunity
UNLESS... tesla is doing its own payments and interests aka be the bank and direct lender
Certainly they will have partners to factor the loans off to, or even leases, and that rate is also often LOWER than what a current prevailing car loan would be, but not my much. It might be closer to 4.75 - 5% since it’s closer to the longer duration rates (not the 30/60/90 day bills) plus a low risk premium.
But yes, it’s $$ they either aren’t earning, or getting or having to pay somewhat to get. IF it helps keep sales up, the revenue is better than more price cuts to meet demand - which is clearly lower than it was. This is the NEXT logical step, but if sales don’t stabilize or even possibly go back up then additional CUTS, or freebies, like 6 month SC, or 1 YR / 10K miles free SC, or free paint upgrades, or wheel upgrades - etc. It will also most likely be 3000-5000$ “discounts” for “inventory” vehicles.
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There is another short-term strategic benefit in doing this in the second month of the quarter that makes it worth taking the hit: if this stimulates demand then Tesla can increase production and possibly up prices to cover part of the interest.UNLESS... tesla is doing its own payments and interests aka be the bank and direct lender
Monday shod be mkt green. We usually get green before the actual PPI and CPI prints. If PPI is cooler we could moonnthe markets till mid day Tuesday. Then wait for CPI WEDS. But ppl would probably be profit taking by mid Tuesday latest.Seem to be some good vibes going on with the interest rate. Let see how the market react on Monday. Feel we should see some big SP movement….question up or down
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks Professor. I flunked lots of classes but always have good professors giving out great advices for me
I figure the real benefit is a combination of attacking the problem for car buyers where they most notice it - the car loan. And they want to lower the price anyway, but have begun to figure out that Wall Street likes buying down the interest rate on the car loan a LOT more than lowering the sticker price.good for consumers but doesn't tesla have bank partners? the company has to cover the difference in interest rates (buy down the rate difference), which means this hidden cost isn't free money... not sure the WS bean counters would like this impact on margin
ie, if real APR is 7%, tesla has to eat 6.01% so you and i can get 0.99%
it gets worse; if treasury rates are 5% then tesla spends 11.01% due to lost opportunity
UNLESS... tesla is doing its own payments and interests aka be the bank and direct lender
Heck Wall Street likes sales more than a lower sticker price.
Even though all 3 of those are ultimately the same thing.
It was one of my check boxes. Two left right now.Seem to be some good vibes going on with the interest rate. Let see how the market react on Monday. Feel we should see some big SP movement….question up or down
Tesla has a pile of cash that has been earning interest, so I assume that will offset some of the cost and they could underwrite a lot of it themselves?good for consumers but doesn't tesla have bank partners? the company has to cover the difference in interest rates (buy down the rate difference), which means this hidden cost isn't free money... not sure the WS bean counters would like this impact on margin
ie, if real APR is 7%, tesla has to eat 6.01% so you and i can get 0.99%
it gets worse; if treasury rates are 5% then tesla spends 11.01% due to lost opportunity
UNLESS... tesla is doing its own payments and interests aka be the bank and direct lender
Regarding stimulating demand, I really don't understand why Tesla doesn't introduce new paint colours. What they currently offer is very boring. I would personally bring a ne limited run colour every year, something a bit more adventurous, like lime green, pink, orange, etc.
But this will boost their sales. Might cut margins but have positing impact on the delivery numbers for sure. Sad it’s not effective in Canada yet, with the 3 nurses I work with who just pulled the trigger for EVs like ID4, Ioniq5 and bz4x. They all wanted Teslas in the beginning but got lured to other companies with the lower interest rates and better trade in values.
As of today, this coming week's GEX looks skewed bearish, with $170 as center nexus/magnet point:
Gamma: If SP reaches tall bar it might hover below OR above (because it is a magnet), unless there is a tall wall or cluster somewhere else
Gamma can't predict direction, they only assist once sp gets there.
Vanna: If SP reaches tall bar it might be "capped" at or below it, unless there is a cluster somewhere else.
Vanna doesn't predict direction, it only gives approximate range if market is not volatile. Since Vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx (wild "vixpiration") and not as useful when market is calm or sideways.
Gamma: If SP reaches tall bar it might hover below OR above (because it is a magnet), unless there is a tall wall or cluster somewhere else
Gamma can't predict direction, they only assist once sp gets there.
Vanna: If SP reaches tall bar it might be "capped" at or below it, unless there is a cluster somewhere else.
Vanna doesn't predict direction, it only gives approximate range if market is not volatile. Since Vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx (wild "vixpiration") and not as useful when market is calm or sideways.
Don’t think I have ever heard the Wicked Stocks guy sound so pessimistic about TSLA stock then with this recording for May13th and this week and the next couple of months. He even stated he Was trying not to put his feelings into his technical analysis, but it came through strong. He is suggesting high 130’s in he next couple of months, and, if the stock goes south, even low 100’s. Yikes. August 8th can’t come soon enough.
Did I hear him wrong?
I agree. TSLA having not been able to hold both recent runs does look quite bearish. Similar sentiment to @tivoboy who also sees deeper downside before seeing any upside.
It's also interesting what Cary said re lame fundamentals will emerge to support the depressed TSLA action (chicken vs. egg). Imagine if the 6/13 vote flops, Q2 comes in bad, and 8/8 flops, then his <$100 possibility doesn't look so outlandish.
Question for us is how to prepare and trade both sides.
I have no idea how to position for the next few weeks. And given my non-negligible losses from the earlier gyrations I'm even more skittish. Meanwhile I'm just holding longs and 15x -P300 6/2026 that feels radioactive (can likely assign <$132). Not liking the stress!
On a hopeful note, if TSLA closes back over $170, there's hope for $176-184-201.
I’m thinking flat to down, then we might get an optimistic rise into the shareholder event, followed by a sell the news after, which will be compounded by bad Q2 numbers a couple weeks later.
Yeh.
I'm happy for you that you got to offload your ITM/NTM CC's last week. I wasn't so lucky, BTC too soon.
Are you selling more tomorrow or waiting to see how the week evolves?
Remember that Tesla just started offering 0% financing that might help and WS could think it is a positive. And, overnight, TSLA does show up very slightly. Finally, this YouTuber might give you some additional insights on the markets and TSLA (watch at 1.5 speed):
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