Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Citizen-T]

What's going with Scty? Gotta be the oil price..thinking of buying myself

I just added minutes ago.

 

[Noble Ninja]

What's going with Scty? Gotta be the oil price..thinking of buying myself

Overall market affected by macroeconomics. Oil barrel prices lower and China market downturn. Bunch of stop limits probably triggered at $46-$48 support level.

Also, monthly options expire this week. I expect suspicious price action in the last half hour of today.

 

[jhm]

What's going with Scty? Gotta be the oil price..thinking of buying myself

There is political drama in Nevada over net metering cap. See discussion in SolarCity thread:

SolarCity (SCTY) - Page 198

 

[mmd]

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...argets/page9?p=1119752&viewfull=1#post1119752

I've diluted the LTPT for this recent stock offering, and the results are not that bad. Check out the link.

In your BFPT, do you include the 4% annual dilution due to stock based compensation?

 

[jhm]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2015/08/21/tesla-eats-into-bmw-mercedes-audi-high-margin-sales-as-germans-miscue

Dude! Somebody in Gemany has finally discovered the Secret Master Plan.

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In your BFPT, do you include the 4% annual dilution due to stock based compensation?

Yes, see the link for details.

 

[ecarfan]

Shows you even the best stocks, which I believe Tesla to be, can get annihilated when macro trends take hold and when oil is collapsing. If you don't use stops you either have balls of steel or a 1%er account with lots of play money.

I have neither. I am a long term investor (which I recognize this thread is not about). I bought TSLA to hold at least 10 years. By then Tesla will either likely be one of the largest auto companies in the world (and the largest energy storage company) or the company will no longer exist. My bet is the former.

 

[mmd]

Does anyone have thoughts on the insider trading by Deepak and Mathew(board member) in the last few days after financing announcement? Are these unusually high numbers for them, or just usual?

Mathew : http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000120919115067192/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Deepak: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149473215000006/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml

 

[pGo]

AsymCAR River
"Cars from non-established manufacturers excite me"

 

[aznt1217]

Does anyone have thoughts on the insider trading by Deepak and Mathew(board member) in the last few days after financing announcement? Are these unusually high numbers for them, or just usual?

Mathew : http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000120919115067192/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Deepak: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149473215000006/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml

This topic has been beaten over the head. These are predetermined sell dates. Nothing to worry about.

 

[FANGO]

I have watched some oil and gas names here in Calgary go from 50 dollars to 5 dollars a share as management has done NOTHING to calm the fears of the market. They start slashing dividends after the stocks fall to near bankruptcy levels! Tesla COULD have similar issues. Musk needs to address the damn drivetrain and supercharger issue RIGHT NOW. It puts too much negativity and doubt in the minds of us folk who would like to be shareholders. Tell us the truth. What are your plans? Is there still a drivetrain issue that has yet to be figured out / stumping their engineers AND what are all the poor Model 3 owners with no garage and/or apartment dwellers going to do without permission to use the Superchargers as their SOLE point of charging. One damn press release will cause this slide to halt.

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According to some TMC threads, there are still some drivetrain / failures. I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS IS THE TRUTH OR SIMPLY FUD THAT IS BEING SPREAD AROUND. Musk did try to address drivetrain questions last year but I think he needs to step up to the plate again and make another statement if there is in fact ongoing issues. Once again, I have no proof and this is simply heresay based on TMC posts I have read. I have faith he will do the right thing soon......

Calgary, this is going to sound harsh, but I think you might be too bipolar to be a Tesla investor. When the stock is slightly up you're irrationally overexcited about everything, and when the stock is slightly down you're irrationally angry/nervous/etc about everything.

The Model 3 isn't even close to being out yet, it would be ridiculous for Tesla to talk about supercharging on something that won't be on the road for over two years. The "drivetrain issue" has been done with for like a year. They found a cheap solution and are fixing the drivetrains they take in. Beyond that, sometimes things break. This is not news.

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What's going with Scty? Gotta be the oil price..thinking of buying myself

Chanos, who is apparently a hedge fund manager, revealed that he is shorting SCTY. I always find it funny that these guys can short something, tell people they're shorting it, cause the thing to go down, make money off of it, and then people give them respect for being right or for having made a lot of money. Strange.

Anyway, oil prices have even less to do with solar than EVs. Maybe in public perception they do, but really, oil has *zero* effect on solar, because oil is not used for electricity generation. It's like .001% in California, <1% in the whole US (mostly that's small-scale generators and a lot in Hawaii). The only indirect way that solar competes with oil is when an EV powered by solar replaces a gas car, but that's pretty far out to have a -12% effect on a stock, and it would be extremely irrational if that happened.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

No offence taken Fango. I deserve every bit of it. Everybody on here is great and very nice. I am actually bipolar (good guess) and will be back buying shares on my next high. Best wishes to the community.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

No offence taken Fango. I deserve every bit of it. Everybody on here is great and very nice. I am actually bipolar (good guess) and will be back buying shares on my next high. Best wishes to the community.

I continue to be impressed by the quality of human on TMC, most people would be angered by such criticism regardless of whether or not it was true.

 

[Lump]

Typically on small sell offs we hear people buying & saying its a great opportunity, down $30 since Wednesday & its pretty quite in here.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Typically on small sell offs we hear people buying & saying its a great opportunity, down $30 since Wednesday & its pretty quite in here.

Lump, please delete your post. I think (am extremely confident) many people are preoccupied.

 

[austinEV]

Typically on small sell offs we hear people buying & saying its a great opportunity, down $30 since Wednesday & its pretty quite in here.

In 2013, "buy this dip" was a 100% successful strategy. Since then, we have gone up and down enough that that talk has gone away. You will hear it if (god forbid) we hit sub 200 or something, but until then there are a bunch of scarred, veteran knife-catchers in here.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Typically on small sell offs we hear people buying & saying its a great opportunity, down $30 since Wednesday & its pretty quite in here.

But is anything happening today really Tesla driven? Sure the post ER drop was, but right now it's the world coming to an end yet again. Nothing to do but ride it out, braver souls may try and make a dime on it, though.

 

[techmaven]

If you have a long term horizon and you have plenty of dry powder, I think these levels are attractive to accumulate. I still think we do not have sufficient clarity on the Model X situation hence a big downdraft is possible, but again, a longer term horizon helps with that.

There's a lot of other, potentially cheaper plays right now too...

 

[Lump]

Lump, please delete your post. I think (am extremely confident) many people are preoccupied.

Preoccupied with what? Standing on Palo Alto street corners hoping to see new MX paint colors?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Preoccupied with what? Standing on Palo Alto street corners hoping to see new MX paint colors?

Not funny.

 

[emupilot]

Typically on small sell offs we hear people buying & saying its a great opportunity, down $30 since Wednesday & its pretty quite in here.

Lacking news, I think alot of people here think TSLA could continue going down to 220, 200, 186, whatever. There is some rather big news which is probably coming within the next week which should make the stock go up quite a bit. If you think the rubber will finally hit the road with the X, that is what makes this a buying opportunity. Unless it isn't.