Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I wish I could buy more. What should have been a gigantic rally today was constrained by the broad market rally. For better or worse, the next resistance isn't until $210, and after that $220.


Is today the last day of the "go shop period"?

 

[trentxintong]

'..the worst few weeks ever, really..'.

Hasn't Elon been through some bad weeks in his lifetime? I can imagine stress from worrying if the SCTY deal will go through could be pretty high if this is the case.

Shouldn't he be excited about the potential Q3 blowout? I do understand SpaceX is probably a little more important to him than Tesla though.

Sigh. Any more opinions on the SCTY deal going through?

Q3 blowout requires a few more weeks of hard work. I think there are some investors not happy with SCTY deal and one of them sued Elon Musk. But i do think these are minor issues and SCTY deal is likely to go through ATM.

 

[racer26]

'..the worst few weeks ever, really..'.

Hasn't Elon been through some bad weeks in his lifetime? I can imagine stress from worrying if the SCTY deal will go through could be pretty high if this is the case.

Shouldn't he be excited about the potential Q3 blowout? I do understand SpaceX is probably a little more important to him than Tesla though.

Sigh. Any more opinions on the SCTY deal going through?

Its definitely strong words, coming from Elon, remembering back to 2008 when both SpaceX and Tesla had existential crises that took him down to his last dollars.

SpaceX really is his baby though. Everything that stands between Elon and getting humanity multiplanetary ASAP is Enemy #1 in Elon's eyes, so its easy to see how an anomaly of as-yet undetermined cause (and sabotage is still on the table) would weigh heavy on him.

 

[TMSE]

It's encouraging allright, but this is a simple securitization of future revenue streams. No shares or likewise equity investment.

It is very encouraging indeed. In fact, the NPV of all future revenue streams after accounting for a discount rate, same as the one in this deal, is over $2 billion, which is about $20 to $22 per share. Then you add $750 million, for the Buffalo gigafab leased at $1/year for 20 years.

 

[Intl Professor]

Hasn't Elon been through some bad weeks in his lifetime? I can imagine stress from worrying if the SCTY deal will go through could be pretty high if this is the case.

Good call, but I think he's exaggerating the stress because it is immediate. (I'm too lazy to check if he actually said "one of" to qualify his remarks. In any case he should have.)

Given the quality of his performances under the pressure of a "semi" press conference he is remarkable. When the Soviet Union was falling apart I sometimes had up to all of the three major local tv channels lined up for an interview on campus. He's much better than any of us would be in that kind of a spotlight.

Bright as he is its hard to remember "e's a human bean, matey."

 

[Turing]

Spike in volume for today's close. Price held.

 

[Jayjs20]

Next question is, what's going to happen tomorrow? Last week, we had a great Monday as well, which quickly died out and went under for the rest of the week.

 

[racer26]

Tesla is testing a new charging solution for people living in apartments

Interesting. Anybody know more than the article?

My guess is some sort of Powerwall/Powerpack driven charger with some way to install it in an apartment building's garage without requiring access to HV power wiring or significant modification to the building? This could be coupled with some kind of charged-Powerpack delivery service that takes them offsite to be charged?

I'm guessing the primary resistance from building owners to installing EVSEs in the garage is that its impractical to need to reconfigure the building's wiring.

 

[stealthology]

Good call, but I think he's exaggerating the stress because it is immediate. (I'm too lazy to check if he actually said "one of" to qualify his remarks. In any case he should have.)
...

How can we check? Can we listen to the actual call?

 

[dandurston]

It is very encouraging indeed. In fact, the NPV of all future revenue streams after accounting for a discount rate, same as the one in this deal, is over $2 billion, which is about $20 to $22 per share. Then you add $750 million, for the Buffalo gigafab leased at $1/year for 20 years.

Don't forget about their debt. I'm no SCTY financials expert, but I think the NPV of these future cash flows is similar to the debt taken on to create this base (2-3 billion?). So the net is around 0.

If SCTY can continue to lower their hardware costs and slash sales cost (via Tesla stores?), then they'll be able to generate a NPV that is significantly higher than their installed cost.

 

[racer26]

Also: Blue Origin Announces Big 'New Glenn' Rocket for Satellite & Crew Launches

Looks like Bezos might be putting the cart before the horse, a bit.

Talking heavy-lift vehicle with more payload capacity than FalconHeavy, and reusable first stage, for orbital use, expected to start manned flight before 2020 when all Blue Origin has right now is a rinky-dink suborbital space-hopper. Blue_Origin_Family.png

Perhaps walk, before running.

 

[Intl Professor]

How can we check? Can we listen to the actual call?

I believe Electrek has a transcript of Musk's Q&A. The "call" was for you catching a part of it and your concern. (Never having a college English course I sometimes write clumsily.)

 

[joseph7h]

It's encouraging allright, but this is a simple securitization of future revenue streams. No shares or likewise equity investment.

Yeah, here is a better report SolarCity raises $305 million in deal advised by Soros' firm

 

[Turing]

Also: Blue Origin Announces Big 'New Glenn' Rocket for Satellite & Crew Launches

Looks like Bezos might be putting the cart before the horse, a bit.

Talking heavy-lift vehicle with more payload capacity than FalconHeavy, and reusable first stage, for orbital use, expected to start manned flight before 2020 when all Blue Origin has right now is a rinky-dink suborbital space-hopper. Blue_Origin_Family.png

Perhaps walk, before running.

This would be an insane feat if they pulled off a successful maiden flight before 2020. Anyone want to offer even odds I'll take the over. It nice to see two companies trying to achieve reusability in human spaceflight.

 

[larmor]

Also: Blue Origin Announces Big 'New Glenn' Rocket for Satellite & Crew Launches

Looks like Bezos might be putting the cart before the horse, a bit.

Talking heavy-lift vehicle with more payload capacity than FalconHeavy, and reusable first stage, for orbital use, expected to start manned flight before 2020 when all Blue Origin has right now is a rinky-dink suborbital space-hopper. Blue_Origin_Family.png

Perhaps walk, before running.

In TM last CC, they mentioned that they made alot of mistakes from the roadster and learned alot. I would presume the same happened to get spacex to this point as well.

 

[3Victoria]

Transcript: Elon Musk’s press conference about Tesla Autopilot under v8.0 update [Part 1]

Transcript: Elon Musk’s press conference about Tesla Autopilot under v8.0 update [Part 2]

Transcript: Elon Musk’s press conference about Tesla Autopilot under v8.0 update [Part 3]

Transcript: Elon Musk’s press conference about Tesla Autopilot under v8.0 update [Part 4]

Transcript: Elon Musk’s press conference about Tesla Autopilot under v8.0 update [Part 5]

Part 6 is pending

 

[Lessmog]

I wish I could buy more. What should have been a gigantic rally today was constrained by the broad market rally. For better or worse, the next resistance isn't until $210, and after that $220.


Is today the last day of the "go shop period"?

Not sure, but ISTR it was the 14th. Morning or after hours? IDK.

 

[JBRR]

The statement of "the worst few weeks ever". Part 4 of the transcript.

"Michael Ballaban – Jalopnik

Hey Elon, thanks for taking this question. Yesterday you tweeted that it had been an unusually difficult couple of weeks. Was that just a reference to the SpaceX launch pad fire or was there something else going on?

Elon Musk – Tesla CEO

It’s just been a lot. We are still getting a lot of flak for the whole SolarCity thing which I think is unreasonable and you know, there’s a lot effort on the Autopilot, on the Model 3 development and getting the factory for the Model 3, and then the rocket exploding… [pause] … the worst few weeks ever really."

 

[TMSE]

Don't forget about their debt. I'm no SCTY financials expert, but I think the NPV of these future cash flows is similar to the debt taken on to create this base (2-3 billion?). So the net is around 0.

If SCTY can continue to lower their hardware costs and slash sales cost (via Tesla stores?), then they'll be able to generate a NPV that is significantly higher than their installed cost.

I was under the same impression before. However, given the financing deal today, no longer so. Check my related comment on SCTY thread:

In the press release today http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...144D/SCTY_News_2016_9_12_General_Releases.pdf

SolarCity monetizes its underlying cash flows in cash equity transactions, but retains ownership of the assets and continues to service the customers. SolarCity held $5.2 billion in solar energy system assets on its balance sheet at the end of its most recently reported quarter on June 30. Those assets are contracted to create $3.1 billion in future payments on a net present value (NPV) basis (NPV calculation assumes 6% discount rate) , and SolarCity expects to continue to execute additional transactions in the future with high quality investors to monetize its contracted cashflows.

Does the 6% discount rate denote debt servicing cost? Is this $3.1 billion cashflow after servicing the corresponding asset-backed debt on SolarCity books? Correct me if I am wrong, but I think it has to be after servicing the debt because original debt issuer must have covenants in place to ensure the servicing of these asset-backed debts from the cashflow before they are appropriated for any other purpose.

 

[MitchJi]

To bring that back to the short term thread, I would guess that the new AP sensor suite is still a bit away. I would guess it ships in the S/X before the 3 and it might make sense that there would be two levels of AP sensor suites. One that is the current level of hardware, and another with 4 radars, potentially 9 or cameras for a lot more money. So it makes sense to maximize the AP abilities within the current hardware setup. In the Mercedes DrivePilot system, for example, all that extra hardware doesn't really provide that much in terms of actual driving results.

Two price points doesn't make sense given the rapidly falling costs for sensors. Look at the price/quality of cameras included with cell phones for example.

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman and CEO
Well, again, major product announcements are not – I shouldn't do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I'd say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we've got under development is going to blow people's minds. It blows my mind, so.

Elon has sounded as though they are closer than that. I believe that the M3 will ship with the HW required for level 4.