Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

I ended up paying $207 for 1063 shares TSLA @ open
Not too happy but that's a chance I took betting that this week will close higher
We'll see

My prediction is that in a couple of weeks when Tesla reports deliveries and production you'll be smiling.

After thinking about this I think you will probably have a much bigger smile if you place a sell order for about what you paid, and buy SCTY, getting TSLA shares for under $160 per share, when the merger goes through.

Doing that naked there's a little risk that the acquisition doesn't go through, but it should be easy to hedge that risk, by buying SCTY puts?

 

[adiggs]

The question is a good one @AlMc . My own feeling is that having discounts on a more routine basis can be a fine thing - it's indicative of a more typical / routine sales situation, and that Tesla is moving out of a purely production constrained situation.

It can also turn into a bad thing, if the internal culture starts going down the "what will it take to put you into a Tesla today" type sales and behavior. To the extent the culture stays educational and stays true to what it's been before, I don't see well educated buyers looking for deals among inventory and loaner cars as being a bad thing overall for the company. Especially with as many options as Tesla has with effectively 0 cost to provide discounts with.


On balance, I prefer seeing Tesla having enough production that they can outrun the "easy" demand; that there is enough demand that the company is now needing to pull ANY demand levers to improve sales. That Tesla has gotten as far as they have with only the car to sell itself is amazing, but it's also self-limiting.

 

[Gerardf]

Will this narrow the gap a bit today ? A big shareholder adding shares Sept 14th.

"Musk aside, seven of the top 10 Tesla owners have chunks of SolarCity. In apparent shows of support, all seven, including Fidelity Investments and BlackRock Inc., raised their stakes in Tesla in their most recent filings. The Bank of Montreal, the car maker’s sixth-largest shareholder and SolarCity’s third, added 310,020 Tesla shares Sept. 14. "

The Real Reason Investors Are Backing the Tesla-SolarCity Deal


Edit : oops, not so sure Bloomberg has the facts correct. That is exactly the amount that was already mentioned for june 30 update. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings

 

[SebastianR]

German news say that Tesla can be hacked remotely. I assume it is old news since it talks about "update to the latest version of the firmware" but prepare for some German based FUD:

Tesla Model S lässt sich von fern kapern

 

[esk8mw]

Tesla hit with shareholder lawsuits trying to block Solarcity merger. Two shareholders are pension funds. Looks like not all funds are happy...

Tesla’s Merger With SolarCity May Be Delayed by Lawsuits

Just FYI, a lot of pension funds operate as activist investors and tend to vote everything down and bring lawsuits, etc. their voting guidelines tend to be borderline insane. This is not the least bit unusual. Also, derivative suits can be brought by basically any investor so it's not like this is proof that the big funds are angry.

I've conducted many investor outreach calls with institutions and pension funds for a public company. Pension funds have by far the strangest governance demands and guidelines, followed by non US institutional investors (you guys have some crazy ideas about executive compensation in particular!). In my experience the largest US institutions were the most reasonable and deferential to management. Fidelity and Vanguard are the two most reasonable investors I've spoken with. If I saw someone like that on a derivative lawsuit complaint I'd be nervous. These pension funds...not so much.

 

[TrendTrader007]

After thinking about this I think you will probably have a much bigger smile if you place a sell order for about what you paid, and buy SCTY, getting TSLA shares for under $160 per share, when the merger goes through.

Doing that naked there's a little risk that the acquisition doesn't go through, but it should be easy to hedge that risk, by buying SCTY puts?

SCTY is just not my cup of tea
Sure I'll be a default owner of SCTY once the merger goes through but until then I'd rather stay away

 

[TrendTrader007]

Interesting to say the least! I'm wondering if the prices will be a bit whipsaw tomorrow and the day after. Trying to figure out a good price point to buy on the potential neg SP impact of the regulations (since I doubt most traders know that 8.0 coming out Wed). I do not believe this will have a lasting impact on SP given Tesla's ability to issue "recall fixes" with OTA updates. I keep thinking about Andrea James' interview where she talks about east coast/west coast perceptions, and how most traders/investors in NY don't drive...

As i said earlier I bought yesterday at $207 so anything around $200 or low 200s seems fair to me but I'm pretty biased and my overall cost basis is $224.81 or so

 

[RobStark]

The Real Reason Investors Are Backing the Tesla-SolarCity Deal


"The plaintiffs, who own undisclosed amounts but aren’t among the major owners, are the City of Riviera Beach Pension Fund in Florida, the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System and individual investors P. Evan Stephens and Ellen Prasinos."

The only plaintiff of note is the Arkansas Teacher Retirement System with over $14B in assets under management. But I can't find how many TSLA shares they own.

 

[Gerardf]

A second amendment.

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001193125-16-713693

Did not get it in my mailbox.

Amendment No. 2 to FORM S-4 REGISTRATION STATEMENT

This Amendment No. 2 is being filed solely to file Exhibits 99.3 and 99.4 to this Registration Statement on Form S-4 (Registration Statement No. 333-213390) (this “ Registration Statement ”), and no changes or additions are being made hereby to the joint proxy statement/prospectus constituting Part I of this Registration Statement. Accordingly, the joint proxy statement/prospectus has not been included herein.


Could the statements in this chapter of this filing be be linked to the law suits ?
Item 20. Indemnification of Directors and Officers


Edit: replaced link.

 

[JBRR]

First Tesla Model S remotely controlled by hackers, Tesla already pushed a fix

 

[esk8mw]

My take on the ap guidelines is that we should be covered. If you read the recent ap call transcript from Electrek, Elon mentions that 8.0 was developed in conjunction with the nhtsa and he said something like "I think the nhtsa will like the improvements." That's a pretty big indicator to me that tesla has a preview of the guidelines and is conformed (or is conforming) to the guidelines.

I'm guessing tesla has been speaking with the nhtsa extensively. I would be shocked if these conversations didn't result in tesla gaining knowledge of the regs. It's a governmental agency, these regs weren't thrown together by some staffer over the weekend. They move slowly, much slower than teslas ability to code software to meet whatever demands they have.

The reasoning for the ap blog and call are now clear (this is perhaps the most obvious sign that tesla was working with the nhtsa on 8.0). Given the investigation, it would be borderline insane for Elon to host the call to brag about all the (soon to be) noncompliant changes they are making to ap, which would have to be rolled back within days of delivery thanks to the new regs. Then look at timing. Guidelines tues, 8.0 wed. That is not coincidence. What better way to show your dominance in this field than to roll out free Ota updates to every car a day after the guidelines. Meanwhile, other mfgs will have to issue a recall or redesign current offerings if they aren't compliant.

If the agency truly values safety and tesla could show them the safety data of ap, then they would want to do everything they can to work with tesla to develop a system.

Side note - I bet this means 8.0 becomes mandatory. That guy (guys?) staying on 7.0 and ranting about Tesla taking his freedom is going to be hilariously angry.

 

[esk8mw]

A second amendment.

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001193125-16-713693

Did not get it in my mailbox.

Amendment No. 2 to FORM S-4 REGISTRATION STATEMENT

This Amendment No. 2 is being filed solely to file Exhibits 99.3 and 99.4 to this Registration Statement on Form S-4 (Registration Statement No. 333-213390) (this “ Registration Statement ”), and no changes or additions are being made hereby to the joint proxy statement/prospectus constituting Part I of this Registration Statement. Accordingly, the joint proxy statement/prospectus has not been included herein.


Could the statements in this chapter of this filing be be linked to the law suits ?
Item 20. Indemnification of Directors and Officers


Edit: replaced link.

Nope, that indemnification section is required in all registration statements. It's standard boilerplate. The exhibits are just the proxy cards. Basically, some corporate associate attorney is getting yelled at right now for forgetting to include these things in the prior amendment as there's no good reason to file these updates piecemeal like this.

 

[Gerardf]

Nope, that indemnification section is required in all registration statements. It's standard boilerplate. The exhibits are just the proxy cards. Basically, some corporate associate attorney is getting yelled at right now for forgetting to include these things in the prior amendment as there's no good reason to file these updates piecemeal like this.

There are indemnification statements in the first amendment.

 

[vgrinshpun]

First Tesla Model S remotely controlled by hackers, Tesla already pushed a fix

This explains the OTA update I got over the weekend...

 

[esk8mw]

There are indemnification statements in the first amendment.

Yes, Item 20 (indemnification) is already covered in the previous amendment and the language is identical here in the second amendment. It was restated in this second amendment because they are updating Item II of the filing (exhibit list). The only new additions here are the proxy card exhibits. They probably should have been included in yesterday's filing to avoid going to the printer twice in 2 days.

 

[schonelucht]

This explains the OTA update I got over the weekend...

Wondering how Tesla will deal with owners who refuse the update because the research firm will release a description of their exploit.

 

[AlMc]

Wondering how Tesla will deal with owners who refuse the update because the research firm will release a description of their exploit.

I suspect it will be similar to any 'recall' where TM does a CYA by indicating it is federally mandated and the burden (legal) falls to the individual owner whom refuses to update.

 

[AlMc]

I don't know if this has been mentioned concerning the four lawsuits trying to block the merger: A court date was set for October 18th to consider consolidating the lawsuits.

'esk' can correct me but I believe the merger can still proceed to a certain degree despite this date being about a month away. So, the merger progress/discussion does not completely *stop* pending the Oct 18th court date.

 

[schonelucht]

I suspect it will be similar to any 'recall' where TM does a CYA by indicating it is federally mandated and the burden (legal) falls to the individual owner whom refuses to update.

Tesla sells internationally so it may not be able to fully shield itself from liabilities outside the US. Especially in countries with a strong domestic car industry, there may be more work to do to counter any regulatory or judicial bias.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Question: is someone investing the LIT ETF at the moment?
It seems a low-risk good investment, for those who are long TSLA and the overall EV market as well.
I've not found threads about this in the forum, yet.