Implies that they have been doing severe overtime in September.
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Krugerrand
Meow
No kidding. Even the CEO has only said 1T.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I find that car forums in general are tough communities that tend to beat up on members, NASIOC probably being one of the most historically infamous web boards. TMC less so, but there is still some of that.
I would NOT encourage anyone to go 100% in on TSLA or more than 100% in (like with a margin account). It is far too dangerous IMO to link one's financial future to the fortunes of a single company. Random stuff happens. There are things that go on behind the scenes in the company that we don't have any clue about. I know too many people who suffered greatly in 2001 and 2008 because they were far too heavily weighted in 1 company or 1 industry sector in their retirement accounts.
Krugerrand
Meow
Agreed. And when you come up with a number like 10T, call it a 'lazy thought' but then discuss at length why it's possible - it feels like two ships passing in the night. The guy who's got all the information, is the driving force, and the most practical person on the planet just recently suggested 1T after being laughed at for suggesting a 700B Apple valuation shortly before that. Now I'm getting uncomfortable 'from longs that have lost capability for critical thinking'.
Which implies that production was running way higher than 2000 units/week in at least last couple of weeks in September. I am wondering if they managed to hit 2400-2500 units/week.
Ultimately, though, they need to be able to be running at these level sustained, without OT. This, I think, will be required to get to blended 28% automotive margin that Elon mentioned (again) during the Q2 ER call.
And yes, this will require matching demand, which I think is doable - at 1200 or so cars per week for each MS and MX. 100D (without the P) should help with this.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ummm. Tesla shuts down the assembly line the first week of each quarter.
This is not unusual.
Nothing in their response suggests amount of overtime at Fremont
Wouldn't Q4 shutdown be usually at the end of December for holidays? I think that having production shut down for two weeks is unusual, enough so that Jason Wheeler mention it during the Q2 ER call
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
My vivid recollection is they shut down assembly the first week of every quarter (including Q4)
I agree that it would be better to do it during the Year end holidays. But I'm sure they've got their reasons.
3Victoria
Active Member
Yes, this shutdown was rumoured. I had suggested that it might be for changing over to new AP hardware. The big push to get rid of stock and even display stock through discounting is suggestive. Also, the discounting may limit complaints of just having missed the change. My fingers are crossed. I have absolutely no evidence for this, just hoping.
How many have put a deposit down on Maybachs and Continentals?
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3Victoria
Active Member
Chickenlittle
Banned
What is a vivid recollection? Is it something you picture? If it's vivid you should be able to find a link to substantiate your recollection. They have closed for end of year Holliday. I have no vivid or other recollection of a quarterly shutdown
Guys, instead of bickering about it. You can just look it up. They didn't shutdown first week of Q3. They also didn't the first week of 15'Q4. They also didn't Q3. The other quarters they may have or they may have build overseas customers exclusively who don't report start of production dates as religiously as Americans do.
ok, i did a quick search for gigafactory and zilch, zippo, nada, so no idea where to post other than here as it SHOULD help SP (maybe)
latest flyover pictures, (view from the west), it is "stretching" in a growth spurt to about 2x the size.
(left is north, some there) right is south, module looks bigger than other 4 existing
Tesla Gigafactory: new aerial shots show plant more than doubling in size [September 2016 update]
latest flyover pictures, (view from the west), it is "stretching" in a growth spurt to about 2x the size.
(left is north, some there) right is south, module looks bigger than other 4 existing
Tesla Gigafactory: new aerial shots show plant more than doubling in size [September 2016 update]
Thanks, I was about to do the same...
The fact that Jason Wheeler mentioned that this quarter will have two weeks less in the production schedule during the Q2 ER might indicate that either they knew and planned for the heavy end of Q3 push, which should bode well for their guidance on GM. Another way to read it is that they indeed were planning for some change in production process, whether it is related to the additional hardware, as mentioned by @3Victoria, or, perhaps they are planning for blending MS production into new Body Line (#2) to be produced along with MX. Another possibility might be that they are working on introducing 100D (without the P).
I don't have a chance right now to look it up, but don't forget that in some cases, factory expansion caused shutdown in times other than the first week of a quarter. When that happens, then the first week of a quarter rest schedule is altered.
I did some internet research and discovered that short interest is applied on a daily basis, so that schedule would support the theory that interest would change for existing short positions as market conditions change. I'll call Fidelity on Monday and see if I can get a more definite answer on how interest rates may change for existing short sale holders as the interest rate for shorting a stock changes.
If short interest is locked into the rate at time of establishing a short position, why would anyone establish a short position at 50% interest rate if the rate is expected to change in a few days?
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