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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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"Tripen" Trip Chowdrey claims hew saw construction at Fremont simply by driving around the perimeter...

  • It seems to us that the new construction area is almost the same size as the existing Tesla’s Fremont Factory
Really Trip? All of a sudden construction began without city approval & permitting & you were the first to discover it but didn't take any pictures to support your claim? Where are the funds needed to pay for this expansion coming from Trip?
 
What quantative measures support the current valuation of the company?
P/E?
Comps?
DCF?
FCF?

Of course there is emotion on trading this stock: "they will revolutionize the industry", "it is the best car ever", etc.

Many of the quantitive measures you state are not effective at evaluating companies that are crossing the chasm:
1.26.11%20Valley%20of%20Death.png


By their very nature, they do not capture whether or not a company is exiting the valley of death. All they do while a company is in the valley of death is describe the valley of death itself. Ok, we all get that. The issue is trying to understand which companies go into the valley of death and never exit (Fisker, for example), and which ones do exit.

There are plenty of facts and quantitative measures that support the thesis that Tesla is exiting the valley of death. The Model 3 launch represents crossing into the early majority. Of all the times to question Tesla, right now, as we are near the big vertical line in the picture above and on the clear upswing on through the exit of the valley of death, the chorus of voices proclaiming eminent demise has never been greater. Naturally, people tend to be backwards looking and have a difficult to adapt to new realities in their mental framework. Now, the diagram above is an oversimplification of what is going on with Tesla. We can talk about the YoY rise in revenues, deliveries, the amount of money a very conservative and risk adverse Japanese company has spent and has committed to spend on the Tesla Gigafactory, the reactions of the competition and the clear lag in which they operate, and so forth. But I humbly submit that quite a few people are looking at the wrong metrics, and more importantly, not realizing that the market itself is looking at the broader set of metrics. It is not to dismiss the metrics you raised, but to realize that there are many more metrics and the descriptions of Tesla's business are often wrong, making comps quite difficult.

One of the key metrics to understand is that through 2020, if not into the mid 2020's, Tesla likely will have more than 50% of the battery production for EVs ex-China. And when I say more than 50%, I'm not sure yet if it is more like 70%. It depends on the allocation Tesla chooses between automotive and energy. It is likely that Tesla learns to be a big automaker before the rest of the big automakers learn to make competitive BEVs in quantities that matter. And Tesla becomes a full transportation end to end company, from energy production, vehicle production, vehicle distribution, and through to energy distribution (which obviously also includes energy consumption). And that is likely necessary for the upcoming changes we will see in the next two decades. Instead of letting chicken and egg problems persist, Tesla solves all the sides to move the needle.
 
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New construction at Fremont?! First I'm hearing of this. I assumed Model3 assembly line would be within the existing factory walls. Same with Robotic build-in-white weld line...

Can anyone uncover what the NEW construction will be for?

The Tripster strikes again:

"A majority of Area 4 is within a 10-minute walk radius to the new Warm Springs/South Fremont BART station located to the east of the site. Area 4 is not only a Transit-Oriented Development site, but is also a very accessible site via BART as it is bounded by circulation arterials such as South Grimmer Boulevard to the north, and Fremont Boulevard to the west that connects to Interstate 880 and Interstate 680. The Tesla Motors manufacturing facility is located directly south of the site"

https://fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27214
 
The way I look at PHEV's - they can be a gargantuan contributor to reducing CO2 emissions (if everybody drove their first 30 miles each day on electricity, that would kneecap the gas industry). So they're a good thing.

I don't think so outside of commercial applications. Getting consumers hooked on a non-full BEV solution when BEVs are 100% residential viable now is a bad idea.
 
Many of the quantitive measures you state are not effective at evaluating companies that are crossing the chasm:
1.26.11%20Valley%20of%20Death.png


By their very nature, they do not capture whether or not a company is exiting the valley of death. All they do while a company is in the valley of death is describe the valley of death itself. Ok, we all get that. The issue is trying to understand which companies go into the valley of death and never exit (Fisker, for example), and which ones do exit.

There are plenty of facts and quantitative measures that support the thesis that Tesla is exiting the valley of death. The Model 3 launch represents crossing into the early majority. Of all the times to question Tesla, right now, as we are near the big vertical line in the picture above and on the clear upswing on through the exit of the valley of death, the chorus of voices proclaiming eminent demise has never been greater. Naturally, people tend to be backwards looking and have a difficult to adapt to new realities in their mental framework. Now, the diagram above is an oversimplification of what is going on with Tesla. We can talk about the YoY rise in revenues, deliveries, the amount of money a very conservative and risk adverse Japanese company has spent and has committed to spend on the Tesla Gigafactory, the reactions of the competition and the clear lag in which they operate, and so forth. But I humbly submit that quite a few people are looking at the wrong metrics, and more importantly, not realizing that the market itself is looking at the broader set of metrics. It is not to dismiss the metrics you raised, but to realize that there are many more metrics and the descriptions of Tesla's business are often wrong, making comps quite difficult.
My thanks for not including a quote; I suspect you were responding to someone on Ignore, so your fine analysis would have gone unread if you had. :)
 
The Tripster strikes again:

"A majority of Area 4 is within a 10-minute walk radius to the new Warm Springs/South Fremont BART station located to the east of the site. Area 4 is not only a Transit-Oriented Development site, but is also a very accessible site via BART as it is bounded by circulation arterials such as South Grimmer Boulevard to the north, and Fremont Boulevard to the west that connects to Interstate 880 and Interstate 680. The Tesla Motors manufacturing facility is located directly south of the site"

https://fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27214
So this is Tesla that's developing that and they've already started?
 
The way I look at PHEV's - they can be a gargantuan contributor to reducing CO2 emissions (if everybody drove their first 30 miles each day on electricity, that would kneecap the gas industry). So they're a good thing.

As a TSLA investor, I also welcome PHEV's, because every study I've seen, and most comments I've experienced first hand by driver's of PHEV's is that their aspirational car is a Tesla / full EV. Driving electric has that kind of an effect on people.

As an investor, I see more EVs and more PHEVs as tackling the primary limiter on TSLA demand - awareness of the company.


The day will surely come when the industry has matured (or is closer), where more EVs is more competition (and might actually negatively effect Tesla production and deliveries). This isn't that day (IMO).

As I said before - the thing that PHEVs (and Bolt, too) will be best at doing is selling Model 3's. Which is good for us as TSLA investors, and good for humanity, but terrible for the automakers that make them. The faster an incumbent automaker switches over to going whole hog into building compelling EVs, the better chance they stand of surviving the tsunami of hurt that TSLA is about to unleash on the auto industry.
 
Where did you get this info? It sounds interesting (doesn't have anything to so with the stock price, just technical curiosity).

The details on the engineering decisions on battery pack re-design are definitely fascinating, and not only for those interested in the technical details, but for investors in general as well, because I believe it demonstrates how agile of a tech company Tesla really is, and how difficult for competition will be to catch up with Tesla, in spite of musings of people that do not have visibility of these technical details, and just built their conclusions about rivals "crashing Tesla" based on general historical data about competition.

I will try to find time to post details by the end of this week - probably start a new thread - and post a link here.
 
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The Tripster strikes again:

"A majority of Area 4 is within a 10-minute walk radius to the new Warm Springs/South Fremont BART station located to the east of the site. Area 4 is not only a Transit-Oriented Development site, but is also a very accessible site via BART as it is bounded by circulation arterials such as South Grimmer Boulevard to the north, and Fremont Boulevard to the west that connects to Interstate 880 and Interstate 680. The Tesla Motors manufacturing facility is located directly south of the site"

https://fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27214

So this is Tesla that's developing that and they've already started?

I am in the process of reading the rather long Area 4 Develoment Plan.
Very interesting as they want much of the land adjacent to the Fremont Plant to be used for residential (including school and park land) and a BART station.
It would be nice if someone close to the area could give some more info.
Based on what I have read so far it is difficult to tell whether 'Chip's Intel' is expansion of Fremont or the county/city starting some prep work for their Area 4 expansion
 
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The Tripster strikes again:

"A majority of Area 4 is within a 10-minute walk radius to the new Warm Springs/South Fremont BART station located to the east of the site. Area 4 is not only a Transit-Oriented Development site, but is also a very accessible site via BART as it is bounded by circulation arterials such as South Grimmer Boulevard to the north, and Fremont Boulevard to the west that connects to Interstate 880 and Interstate 680. The Tesla Motors manufacturing facility is located directly south of the site"

https://fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/View/27214
According to that document, the "community developers" are taking AWAY Tesla factory land, not adding TO it. Perhaps that black parking lot is just in temporary use by Tesla, and they will develop other methods to park their cars. The BART parking lots in south bay (Berryessa, mostly) can replace the Tesla parking lots, and everyone can BART to work. Let's see if that works out: it might save some congestion between Berryessa on US-101 and Fremont. The fact that BART is dragging its feet (AS USUAL) is hurting the ability of anything right there to see fruition of any of those answers, obviously.

If push came to shove, the fields to the south could be parked in, and more people could carpool. I sense that a struggle between government and industrialists has been going on, with existing use being a right of use, saving space for possible expansion. I'm quite frankly amazed Tesla has been as successful as it has been so far avoiding problems like this, but thank god, property rights are a huge right in this country, so as long as they have that fantastic Fremont factory property, they have it relatively easy. This doesn't seem like that much of a squeeze.

OTOH, if that "BART community" plan has been abandoned and replaced with more factory, then by all means, let us know!
http://i.imgur.com/WzomZci.jpg
I guess I should have posted here, but I figured the information others had would have been superior. Yes, Tesla is building more at their Fremont factory site.
Apparently, I was entirely wrong? An L-shaped piece of old factory land that is partially currently used for production from said factory is in parallel being developed for an incompatible use (?!). OK then. It's just one of those things: (my) assumptions are built from fairly sensible things, until illogical activists get involved, then they end up biting me and us in the ass (grr). BART has unfortunately been one of those systems that has been over-hyped as being way better than it actually is, and while I understand the motivation of environmentalists to try to colocate people to the train stations, think of the life that would entail: pretty boxed in: you can only stay at home, walk to a train station, and go to places that train station goes to, which will also be boxed in places. I hope they have a lot of Uber, Lyft, and shared cars involved.

In 10 to 20 years, this site will be a gemsite, with Tesla Uber-like self driving cars, and everything. But for now, ??????

BTW, I like many activists, but not all of them, because they share a common flaw: they get hyped up, and it's easy to get gullible activists hyped up about incorrect things. BART might have seemed like a good idea at the time it was invented (right before my birth) to many people, but it has been kind of a sledge hammer used to ruin many other things since then.


Grrrrr .... on page 26, they are using more crappy ass deciduous trees. We need more huge evergreen Redwood trees or better, not those cheap ass east coast trees. I sometimes hate central planners with a passion that oozes hate everywhere, and I thoroughly apologize.

On page 48, we are in stage 1, Backbone Improvements, which would be consistent with the ground activity on the site. It could be that Tesla has worked a deal with them to move forward with the plan expeditiously, so that Tesla could benefit from the plan as much as possible. For instance, a home setting would be a nice kind of shopping experience for those wishing to visit a Tesla Store or Delivery Center, or even to some degree a Service Center. (However, I thought they were moving some of those sites further south.) Tesla might even try to become one of the site developers, building fully solar powered housing.

On Page 62, I take back my thoughts again, because it lists the Project Team:

Lennar "The Home of Everything's Included"
ktgy
Gates + Associates "Landscape, Architecture, Land Planning, Urban Design"
BkF "Engineers / Surveyors / Planners"

From page 4: "In 2013 Lennar began conversations with the City of Fremont to develop Area 4 of the Warm Springs/South Fremont Community Plan (WS/ SFCP)." "This Area 4 Master Plan document serves as Lennar’s Master Plan application to the City of Fremont. It establishes the development framework to guide future growth within the Area 4 of the WS/SFCP." The application was approved by Fremont City Counti March 17, 2015. I fired off an email to Lennar asking for further info (I usually don't have a great track record at receiving much, but whatever I receive, I'll post here immediately). From WikiPedia, Lennar is Floridian, so that explains the deciduous trees that don't grow tall. But, Lennar is apparently HUGE, so possibly, they have enough regional people to understand native trees.
 
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I am in the process of reading the rather long Area 4 Develoment Plan.
Very interesting as they want much of the land adjacent to the Fremont Plant to be used for residential (including school and park land) and a BART station.
It would be nice if someone close to the area could give some more info.
Based on what I have read so far it is difficult to tell whether 'Chip's Intel' is expansion of Fremont or the county/city starting some prep work for their Area 4 expansion

Tesla bought 35 acres in 2013 from Union Pacific ( i think it's south of the factory and included the outdoor test track that Tesla had been leasing.) http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2013/07/19/tesla-buys-big-chunk-of-fremont-land.html#i1 Tesla Buys 35 Acres Beside Factory, Complete With Test Track - Inside EVs
 
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SolarCity names Radford Small CFO

I haven't heard the title of "Small CFO" before, but it makes sense to hire one if you believe the merger will go through. You don't need a regular CFO in the interim period and you can more easily integrate a Small CFO into the combined entity

You got the separation wrong his name is Radford Small and he is going to be the CFO. You will see that they just refer to him by his last name, Small, in the article.
 
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