I am in the same boat. I hope the stock remain low so I can continue to add at great prices. Eventually the stock price will reflect the underlying business.
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"Just valuation and comparison to other auto makers which we've heard here for years and it's really getting old"
when someone on this board makes a suggestion that TSLA will go 2x... and then another person replies with 3x... and then another person claims $1T market cap... and another replies with $10T market cap... these are all discussions of valuation.
what you are not interested in hearing is someone asking why... I guess you're suggesting that everyone on this board has already decided that Tesla has a guaranteed path to 10 million cars per year and an equal solar industry so any questioning of this is just old news.
i find this to be very strange.
what I meant by flat is that it's currently trading at the same price it did in early 2014. if you're trading the ups and downs... that's different.
They have done a crazy amount of cap raises. And the merger isn't great for dilution either, but it's less than 10% which isn't bad if you think SCTY is an asset. But cap raise dilution is only bad if they are "down rounds" which I think Musk only has 2 of now, if they are "up rounds" which I think I heard Musk has like 35 of, and even his down rounds haven't been that dilutive.
Those were really good points, I didn't catch those nuances. Details details. @FredTMC did the mods ever say how to donate? I couldn't find it. If it ends up over 25k what happens then?
That's not the picture I got. The stock did pup up a bit so yes it was better than was reflected in the stock as an expectation before numbers got released, but they weren't anything earth shattering (30K, shaving heads etc.)
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Personally I think about it like this: high risk stock is not necessarily risky just because it can go down sharply, but also because it's unknown when market would recognize a higher valuation if things go well. The current valuation clearly appreciates both the growth potential and the risk. I don't think it would be possible to support $200+ valuation without the expectation of deliveries like we saw in this quarter. Short terrm SCTY acquisition risk is balanced out by future potential of the new product and de-risking of Model S/X execution that we see manifesting as Q3 delivery. All fair, in my opinion. If there's a stock that will either go to 0 or go 10x within the next 5 years and you don't know when but you think the probability is good enough for 10x vs. the price of admission, that's still a buy.
So i wanted to look this up to see if my memory was correct. During the q2 2014 earnings call Adam Jonas asks Elon and JB why the other big players in the car industry are all talking "moving towards hydrogen", why are they all acting like hydrogen is the future?
Q2 2014 earning call exchange:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/236...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
And then this video of Elon in 2015 being asked at the Automotive News World Congress in Detroit about why he is anti hydrogen fuel cell for cars.
The industry narrative and framework has really changed in just the last year or two.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
With the 24,500 deliveries, we now head into the 4th quarter with lots of momentum going for us. That's 3 months of solid confidence in TSLA stock folks. The storyline has changed from "can they do it?" To "hell yea we can."
I commend Mercedes and VW for acknowledging Tesla's dominance, they "get it." They can see the writing on the wall, sometimes it takes "game" to recognize "game." Afterall, 0-60 in 2.5 seconds is stupid fast for a supercar, let alone a sedan. Tesla can also enter the "supercar" market at will with those numbers. It's only a matter of time before we eat into Ferrari, Porsche, Buggati, McClaren & Lamborghini's pie (can you imagine Tesla with 5 different models of "supercar"?). Can't wait for the future folks, Im likely going to own every Tesla car in production. After driving in my S, I never want to get back into any ICE.
I commend Mercedes and VW for acknowledging Tesla's dominance, they "get it." They can see the writing on the wall, sometimes it takes "game" to recognize "game." Afterall, 0-60 in 2.5 seconds is stupid fast for a supercar, let alone a sedan. Tesla can also enter the "supercar" market at will with those numbers. It's only a matter of time before we eat into Ferrari, Porsche, Buggati, McClaren & Lamborghini's pie (can you imagine Tesla with 5 different models of "supercar"?). Can't wait for the future folks, Im likely going to own every Tesla car in production. After driving in my S, I never want to get back into any ICE.
Runarbt
Active Member
Yeah but the poster was referring to market expectations which is not the same as TMC expectations.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TSLA is holding up very nicely and today's pullback was not at all unexpected and pretty bullish in my opinion
The stock is going to climb a wall of worry
I'm seeing more and more Model S and X in my mid size town in Midwest
As a matter of fact I was coming home tonight at around 10.45 PM after watching this movie Equity and just saw a Model S driving right in front of me on a country road
All this is so reminiscent of when I first bought CMG in 2006 at $32 and eventually Chipotle went up over 20 times in next 10 years ( I sold it at $135 in 2008 with a cost basis of $65 or so)
Bottomline: Tesla cars are rapidly becoming mainstream even in mid sized towns in Midwest and once Model 3 comes the stock will explode and go through the roof. Infact, the market will bid the stock much higher in anticipation
Shorts are on the wrong side of this trade, it's harmful for your pocket to bet against a much loved global brand growing rapidly and whose products are rapidly becoming mainstream
Investors suffer from the bias of recency and as long as the SP is not moving up explosively, shorts will berate everything about TSLA and longs will be crestfallen but once this stock starts ramping up in earnest, as I soon expect it to, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy similar to Soros' theory of reflexivity and the higher the stock price rises the more positively it will affect the underlying fundamentals of this company and a virtuous cycle will unleash which shall propel TSLA to $100 Billion market cap and beyond
The stock is going to climb a wall of worry
I'm seeing more and more Model S and X in my mid size town in Midwest
As a matter of fact I was coming home tonight at around 10.45 PM after watching this movie Equity and just saw a Model S driving right in front of me on a country road
All this is so reminiscent of when I first bought CMG in 2006 at $32 and eventually Chipotle went up over 20 times in next 10 years ( I sold it at $135 in 2008 with a cost basis of $65 or so)
Bottomline: Tesla cars are rapidly becoming mainstream even in mid sized towns in Midwest and once Model 3 comes the stock will explode and go through the roof. Infact, the market will bid the stock much higher in anticipation
Shorts are on the wrong side of this trade, it's harmful for your pocket to bet against a much loved global brand growing rapidly and whose products are rapidly becoming mainstream
Investors suffer from the bias of recency and as long as the SP is not moving up explosively, shorts will berate everything about TSLA and longs will be crestfallen but once this stock starts ramping up in earnest, as I soon expect it to, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy similar to Soros' theory of reflexivity and the higher the stock price rises the more positively it will affect the underlying fundamentals of this company and a virtuous cycle will unleash which shall propel TSLA to $100 Billion market cap and beyond
dc_h
Active Member
Interesting time for tesla. Accelerating growth, just passing Porsche in the US, but more important on track to surpass 100,000 rate leaving 2016 and on track to leave 2017 at more than double that rate. If they hit 500,000 in 2018 or 2019 they will be in the top 20 automakers by revenue. Maintain that growth for 5 more years and they are top 10. Life is seldom linear, but some companies like 1990 Dell have an innovation edge that separates them from their competitors. Tesla has design, power plant, system control, supply chain and leadership advantages. This doesn't mean existing mfrs can't respond, but it does mean that they are in a safer place than you might think, if you only look at where they are, versus their direction and their speed.
Oh yeah, they have a second division that will fund itself and pay for a second gigafactory.
My point is that if you look at where they are, you might see a small niche manufacturer. If you look at where they are going, you see something much different.
Oh yeah, they have a second division that will fund itself and pay for a second gigafactory.
My point is that if you look at where they are, you might see a small niche manufacturer. If you look at where they are going, you see something much different.
larmor
Active Member
This is an interesting observation, since tesla's are by their price alone expensive, and yet no one would claim mercedes s class, bmw 5 or 7 series becoming mainstream. The tesla is not an i3 and not a 3 series either. However seeing more on the ground indicates people see value in the car, car maintenance, and just maybe like the 8 year warranty. So if you see one on the road, the tesla is so compelling that people will go out of their way and get one. Not many go out of their way to get a high end luxury sedan...
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Well, there are just some things too dirty to haul in my Model S. But I agree that I don't like getting into the ICE I still have.
stealthology
Member
Do you all think the market will sorta shrug off GAAP profit with decent gross margins? I guess it's more of a statement thing, but they haven't been profitable in a quarter for about 3 years.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm not sure we've seen the end of the delivery bump.
I don't think the market will shrug off profits, but I also think it's not going to be really strong until the SCTY acquisition problem is resolved. That will probably take both the merger completion and a strong product introduction by Elon.
Also the capital raise needs to be completed. The market doesn't believe it's going to be a a modest raise.
I'd be shocked if it didn't spook a noticeable chunk of shorts to cover and then also bring in some momentum traders.
BTW, estimated delivery time for MS in US jumped from Late October to December. It appears that Tesla is gearing up to emptying delivery pipeline in Q4.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1765471/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1765471/
Runarbt
Active Member
The poster replied to a post from dakh, which originally said;
"Delivery number was right about in the middle of what people expected it to be".
I think we are "the people". Not the analysts.
Hence me pointing out that delivery number were in fact only 300 away from our poll - we, the people.;-)- Status
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