Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Jayjs20]

Glenn Beck should neither be celebrated nor is he a politicians.

 

[electracity]

Is it really though? SCTY's debt is backing a humongous asset that will continue to pay predictable income for the next 20 years. SCTY has been shut out of good rates for lending, and so had to give really nice interest rates in order to get it financed. TSLA has more clout, and can negotiate better terms. How much better do SCTY's lending terms have to get before the profits from the asset cover the financing and its no big deal?

Solarcity would not be flirting with junk bond rates had they "debt back(ed) by humongous assets".

 

[Vitold]

the loss of campaign contributions from Auto dealers associations, etc

Dealerships also contribute a lot more to local economies than Tesla store would. I also think that forestalling is really about other car makers selling direct - not just Telsa - such as Chinese BYD.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Glenn Beck should neither be celebrated nor is he a politicians.

There was no attempt to celebrate anyone, just an attempt to present a fuller picture of the world.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Our common friend is shocked ... again.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I don't think that will happen as long as Google and Tesla are developing competing autonomous driving systems. Plenty of other deep pockets out there who would be happy to fill in for Larry and Sergey though.

I think it's possible there are political factors that might prevent this. I doubt any decision by Sergei or others would have anything to do with competing technologies. Also, Google, for better or worse, invests in everything that is in any way related to the Internet.

 

[racer26]

Solarcity books PPA sales as payments are received. You can't simply compare gross revenue and come out with a meaningful comparison. Solarcity does little manufacturing, and their lease obligations are off balance sheet. You need to look at P&L and cash flow. The combined liability of the two companies may exceed $20 billion next year.

Tesla can not possibly provide store sales in the short term to replace solarcity's 1/3 U.S. market share. Solarcity has a very large inside and outside sales force that feeds that volume. Tesla has 50-60 U.S. stores.

The idea that the model 3 is going to be a boundless cash machine negating solarcity missteps is fantasy.

I would expect a big shift by Tesla away from chasing solar market share if Musk had not mentioned continued solarcity growth.

My 5% metric is purely based on the two companies current market caps.

Obviously, the Model 3 isn't a magical cash machine that will erase all fouls -- but I believe that it will be pretty much a license to print money. There is no inkling of a true competitor to it on the horizon yet. I do not consider the Bolt a true competitor. It competes on some specifications, but not the most important ones.

Until such time as there is a real competing product? I believe that Model 3 will help Tesla destroy the market share of the other luxury automakers. If they don't move fast, it will be too late and the damage Tesla does to them will be irreparable.

Glenn Beck should neither be celebrated nor is he a politicians.

I'm going to plead ignorance here. I know not of why he should or should not be celebrated. I purely mean that people who claim a set of ideals, and exhibit behaviour consistent with that set of ideals should be celebrated and held up as the example. People who do things which fly in the face of what they claim should be distrusted and not put in positions of power.

Solarcity would not be flirting with junk bond rates had they "debt back(ed) by humongous assets".

But it is, and they are. Their feed in contracts are fixed for 20 years. Unless you think the agreements are no good, I don't know what could be more stable and trustworthy.

I am reminded of an excerpt from Ashlee Vance's biography of Elon, which says that while Elon was an intern with a major Canadian bank, he spotted an opportunity to buy foreign debt for about 25 cents on the dollar, which was backstopped by the US government for 50 cents on the dollar. It was a virtually guaranteed doubling of your money, backstopped by the US government. It didn't matter if you thought the foreign country would default, because unless you thought the US Gov would, you were still OK. He presented this to the bank, and they shot it down because of bad debts they'd encountered from those countries before. Bankers are a conservative type, but they're also mired in superstition and old habits. They are slow to adapt to changes. I expect their snubbing of SCTY bonds is pretty much that.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Our common friend is shocked ... again.

View attachment 193364

I think Mark is probably convinced Elon, SpaceX, and all Tesla vehicles don't actually exist and the belief they exist is really an illusion being beamed into everyone's mind (perhaps by Mr. Smith?) to convince investors to invest in his companies.

I'm surprised Mark Bernard Spiegel hasn't done an episode with Alex Jones lol. After all, they both appear be chasing after the same reptilians, and global conspiracy to hide the truth lol.

 

[EinSV]

I think it's possible there are political factors that might prevent this. I doubt any decision by Sergei or others would have anything to do with competing technologies. Also, Google, for better or worse, invests in everything that is in any way related to the Internet.

IMO it is unlikely that Google (or its founders) will make a major investment in a publicly traded company that is a direct competitor in such an important technology area. I understand other very smart people on this board may have a different opinion but I'm sticking with mine.

Circumstances could be different in the future if, e.g., Tesla and Google decided to collaborate in important areas, Tesla needed a "white knight" (highly unlikely), etc.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think Mark is probably convinced Elon, SpaceX, and all Tesla vehicles don't actually exist and the belief they exist is really an illusion being beamed into everyone's mind (perhaps by Mr. Smith?) to convince investors to invest in his companies.

I'm surprised Mark Bernard Spiegel hasn't done an episode with Alex Jones lol. After all, they both appear be chasing after the same reptilians, and global conspiracy to hide the truth lol.

In another related news, he can't act for *sugar*. I am not convinced...

 

[Turing]

...phoning up Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

Seriously though, i think this is something even the honest bears totally miss. Google/Page was willing to bailout/aquire a much much worse off tesla years ago in something like a 10+ billion dollar deal (buy company plus infuse billions for gigafactory and M3 and keep Musk in charge!). I think it is fair to assume Musk still has that Ace card up his sleeve, and Tesla is far more successful today then back then when the model S ramp was having trouble and good reviews had yet to pour in.

 

[larmor]

In another related news, he can't act for *sugar*. I am not convinced...

View attachment 193366

Curious that an 'analyst' would even care what a public figure thinks... Retail investors are a small pool vs. analysts, with their data and great insight-- sarcastic filter on...

 

[Drivin]

Interesting he was discussing SpaceX. Kind of enforcing my thought that some of last weeks dip was misunderstanding the Falcon9 pad anomaly.

Confirmation bias.
I doubt Morgan Freeman's lack of understanding is at all correlated with whether or not institutional investors who drive the stock understand this.

Besides, didn't Joseph Kennedy observe that when everyone is giving you a tip about a stock, it is a sure sign to sell?

 

[FredTMC]

Love to see a minority investment in TSLA by an apple or google or similar...

Like 5 to 10% stake. Would reset TSLA far higher. I've always felt this could happen at any time...

 

[Papafox]

Some of them do. Glen Beck loves Tesla and heaps praise on Model S, while scorching Texas for not allowing sales of Tesla cars.

It is dangerous to paint the picture with too wide of a brush...

Bill O'Reily of Fox News has also defended Tesla in the past. A U.S.-based auto company that is outshining the world's competition and improving the country's balance of trade while employing Americans is a reason for political pundits on both sides to celebrate. Where the waters become murky is with Republicans who are so hung up on the global warming issue or with the fact Tesla once accepted a government loan (but paid it back) that they can't see the real value of Tesla. There are lots of Republicans buying Tesla vehicles and investing in this stock, but they generally remain silent about their political leanings on threads such as this because of scorn from those who don't share their political views.

 

[Turing]

IMO it is unlikely that Google (or its founders) will make a major investment in a publicly traded company that is a direct competitor in such an important technology area. I understand other very smart people on this board may have a different opinion but I'm sticking with mine.

Circumstances could be different in the future if, e.g., Tesla and Google decided to collaborate in important areas, Tesla needed a "white knight" (highly unlikely), etc.

You are aware Larry Page essentially offered Elon a blank check 'you can even stay in charge' 11 billion dollar deal in 2013 when tesla was close to running out of money?

 

[tinm]

Our common friend is shocked ... again.

View attachment 193364

It's an electric car. if he's getting shocked he's doing it wrong.

 

[EinSV]

You are aware Larry Page essentially offered Elon a blank check 'you can even stay in charge' 11 billion dollar deal in 2013?

I am. I believe the situation has changed since then given where Tesla and Google are currently positioned on autonomous driving. I also believe my opinion is in the minority on this board.

 

[Papafox]

I'm not trying to be mister doom and gloom here, but just want to point out something that some people seem to be missing. The equity markets are not an infinite piggy bank for entrepreneurs. Tesla has been able to raise whatever cash it needed in the past really quickly, so the temptation is to think that this will continue. But if conditions change, like a stock market sell off (October is looming and the whole market looks frothy right now), or Tesla deciding to saddle itself with another money losing business (Solarcity), then it is possible it won't be able to raise money at an acceptable valuation. We know the equity markets were closed to Solarcity already.

You know what happens when companies run out of cash? Yeah, it's the leading cause of bankruptcy (that's a joke, it's effectively the only cause of bankruptcy). Now Tesla has options if it can't raise enough equity, including ditching the Solarcity deal, stopping store build outs, ramping the gigafactory and Model 3 slower. Each of these move hurts Tesla in the medium term. It isn't likely to actually run out of money, but it is very possible it's breakneck speed of execution could be hampered.

And we won't know how all this plays out for another few months since it is clear that Tesla won't try to raise money until after the merger shareholder vote and after Q3 results. Meanwhile, there is fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

Cosmacelf, thanks for adding balance to the discussion. Trolls often criticize this thread for being hostile to negative posts, but posts such as yours with a logical thread or posts that introduce new evidence are certainly welcome.

 

[Lessmog]

Bill O'Reily of Fox News has also defended Tesla in the past. A U.S.-based auto company that is outshining the world's competition and improving the country's balance of trade while employing Americans is a reason for political pundits on both sides to celebrate. Where the waters become murky is with Republicans who are so hung up on the global warming issue or with the fact Tesla once accepted a government loan (but paid it back) that they can't see the real value of Tesla. There are lots of Republicans buying Tesla vehicles and investing in this stock, but they generally remain silent about their political leanings on threads such as this because of scorn from those who don't share their political views.

Neither of those named are politicians as such, right? Talking heads on tv more like. I have heard about them (not much good) but I never watch American tv. Broken clocks in the wrong time zone?

Of course they have much clout due to their platform, but they are not elected. We might be thankful for their support, if that's what it is. Perhaps they could press those silent Republicans a bit harder?