Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

Also of interest: MBLY seems to be drifting back down toward yesterdays close. It did this yesterday too, showed strength at the open and then fell off midday.

Anybody checked TSLA short availability today? Still zero with rising rates?

 

[esk8mw]

Also of interest: MBLY seems to be drifting back down toward yesterdays close. It did this yesterday too, showed strength at the open and then fell off midday.

Anybody checked TSLA short availability today? Still zero with rising rates?

Still 0 shares at IB, rate unchanged at 19%.

 

[larmor]

single Pipeline in NC is out, so now there is a local gas shortage and price gouging-- Still think tesla energy: TM + solarcity is a bad idea? Discuss...

 

[Calvin.K]

I added SCTY this morning ~$17.3

Ahh so this is why SolarCity is up today!

 

[racer26]

I agree would rather have both Tesla and SolarCIty rising, with Solarcity rising faster to close the gap (Discloser: I own both, long since 2012)

Looks like Mr. Market has decided to grant us our wish for now.

 

[Calvin.K]

must be some SCTY shorts covering... if they are not, then they are getting rousted right about now!

 

[Calvin.K]

Looks like Mr. Market has decided to grant us our wish for now.

I wonder how many more wishes we have....

 

[aubreymcfato]

Both down right now.
Could be this?
Jim Cramer: Tesla and SolarCity Deal Not Evenhanded

 

[brian45011]

Nope, that indemnification section is required in all registration statements. It's standard boilerplate. .

The first part is belied by the caption:
"
PART II

INFORMATION NOT REQUIRED IN THE PROSPECTUS; UNDERTAKINGS"

Boilerplate maybe, but apparently Tesla chose to re-emphasize it after it was included in the original S-4, perhaps because of the four shareholder derivative suits. The irony is Tesla buys D&O insurance but self insures its product liability exposure.

 

[SunCatcher]

From the article:

160 robots on 1st line for MS vs. 580 robots on 2nd line for MX. Does it mean the second line is more automated? Or the MX is so complicated that it requires so many more robots to get the same number of cars throughput as for MS?

Stepping back just a bit. I've been thinking about this one…

160 robots vs 580? Of course the second (newer) line is more automated! Question to answer here is how many employees on the 1st line vs the 2nd one?! Dramatically fewer, I would guess. The obvious is staring us right in the face here; the machine to build the machines is growing, and replacing the need for factory workers, just as planned!

 

[TMSE]

Stepping back just a bit. I've been thinking about this one…

160 robots vs 580? Of course the second (newer) line is more automated! Question to answer here is how many employees on the 1st line vs the 2nd one?! Dramatically fewer, I would guess. The obvious is staring us right in the face here; the machine to build the machines is growing, and replacing the need for factory workers, just as planned!

Good observation. Take a look at this comment from vgrinshpun, which is very helpful:

In addition to the fact that Body Line 1 is designed to handle less complex Model S, while Body Line 2 - both more complex MX and MS, as noted by Papafox, Line 2 has capacity of 2500 cars per week, while Line 1 has capacity of about 1200 cars a week.

Another interesting thing is that a while ago some analysts were speculating that if required, based on demand projections, Tesla could keep both Body Lines in operation, while increasing the throughput of the General Assembly line from about matching the throughput of Body Line 2 to matching Body Line 2 + 1.

The significant new information from the article is that Production of MS body-in-white was not blended into Body Line 2 yet. I think that such blending could require some slowdown for debugging the process. Hopefully Tesla would be able to build some extra bodies-in-white as a buffer prior to blending MS production onto Body Line 2.

 

[racer26]

Bit surprised nobody has posted this yet:

https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/AV policy guidance PDF.pdf

Seems to be the document that we were expecting from the Feds.

 

[SunCatcher]

Good observation. Take a look at this comment from vgrinshpun, which is very helpful:

Thanks. I thought I was paying attention. But I missed that one...

 

[Drax7]

Stepping back just a bit. I've been thinking about this one…

160 robots vs 580? Of course the second (newer) line is more automated! Question to answer here is how many employees on the 1st line vs the 2nd one?! Dramatically fewer, I would guess. The obvious is staring us right in the face here; the machine to build the machines is growing, and replacing the need for factory workers, just as planned!

Line 1 + line 2 = 1200+ 2500= 3700 units

Is that feasible , or is there another constraining isssue ?
Is the feed into these lines a constraint factor?
Frankly I don't know much about the manufacturing.
Anybody better informed please explain.

 

[Irishjugg]

Just read this summary of analysts expectations for revenue and earnings for Q3 and Q4.

Analysts Tips to Monitor: Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)Street Updates | Street Updates

What I do not understand is how analysts come up with higher revenue and earnings in Q4 compared to Q3. They should all know that Tesla is pushing hard in Q3 and will close production for two weeks in Q4.

"Wall Street Analysts are estimating average sales of $2,236.16M for current quarter (Quarter Ending Sep-16)...Analysts on average are expecting revenue target $2,706.83M for next quarter (Quarter Ending Dec-16). "

"Earnings Estimates: “15” Analysts are saying that the company to announce quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share for current quarter period Quarter Ending Sep-16...“15” Analysts are expecting that the company to declare next quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share for period Quarter Ending Dec-16."

Do the analysts know something we do not? Or possibly, they are not doing their job of following information on Tesla that is widely known to this community. Or finally, are they intentionally forecasting a totally unrealistic revenue and earnings scenario for Q4 to achieve some unknown agenda?

The analysts on these never seen to know anything really. Every single quarter you get these just awful estimates completely divorced from reality. It's like they have a spreadsheet and that's it, they don't listen to any statements. Best to be ignored.

 

[Turing]

Still 0 shares at IB, rate unchanged at 19%.

Any estimate how soon after record date will shares become available to short again?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

There are so many things wrong with the argument that the Tesla-SolarCity merger doesn't make sense. I've said all that needs to be said.

1) The lawsuits don't make sensed and are based on emotion not facts.

2) The only people who don't support the merger are journalists and newspapers, many of which are owned by the oil industry.

3) Chanos is a chode who clearly doesn't understand SolarCity's business model.

4) New York supports the deal. According to Elon, institutional investors overwhelmingly support the deal.

5) Investors holding SolarCity convertible bonds might be a bit nervous because of the conversion rate.

6) The deal makes logical and economic sense.

 

[brian45011]

Any estimate how soon after record date will shares become available to short again?

Two trading days before the record date.

 

[brian45011]

Total guess, but late Nov/December is what I've been projecting.

Do you have any theories why SCTY/TSLA might file apparently gratuitous 8k's predicting a record date during the week of September 19th?

 

[schonelucht]

Do you have any theories why SCTY/TSLA might file apparently gratuitous 8k's predicting a record date during the week of September 19th?

I believe he was asked for the record date. Vote date is different and usually indeed a while later.