Tesla Investor Day Discussion

[Buckminster]

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. The event will be live streamed from our Gigafactory Texas, with the option for some of our institutional and retail investors to attend in person (details to follow). Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610064942690095104

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla to Present the Generation 3 Platform at Investor Day in March 2023

 

[Buckminster]

So will Elon unveil Master Plan 3 and Gen 3 (RT or M2?) on the day?

Seems likely as I think about it.

Will be spectacular if so.

 

[Ogre]

Things I’m looking forward to/ expecting

• MP3 unveil
• Gigafactory locations and timeline
• Robotaxi/ Gen 3 platform details and timeline
• Cybertruck production updates and maybe an announcement of when the launch party is.

 

[jamaatta]

"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line"...

...which is a CyberTruck production line?

 

[Buckminster]

So all of these are possible:

• H/W 4.0 incl radar, chip and cameras
• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody
• Highlander reveal
• RT reveal
• Buybacks or Tesla owned RT fleet
• Cybertruck pricing, launch and taking orders

 

[Ogre]

I think Cybertruck pricing and taking orders happens while the GP isn’t operational. I think they do a separate event.

The Gigapress going to Asia might mean not just unveiling the details of the next gen car, but opens up the possibility we’ll get a production start estimate as early as 4th quarter this year.

 

[Buckminster]

So all of these are possible:

• H/W 4.0 incl radar, chip and cameras
• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody
• Highlander reveal
• RT reveal
• Buybacks or Tesla owned RT fleet
• Cybertruck pricing, launch and taking orders

Plus master plan 3 reveal as another strong possibility.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618206672828366848

Gary talking about what news will come when.

 

[Ogre]

With Tesla dropping big announcements prior to the earnings call and investor day I’m getting super curious what they do announce investor day.

 

[Buckminster]

With Tesla dropping big announcements prior to the earnings call and investor day I’m getting super curious what they do announce investor day.

Nevada GF stuff is nothing. Think alien dreadnought. Think 20 million RTs per annum.

 

[Ogre]

Nevada GF stuff is nothing. Think alien dreadnought. Think 20 million RTs per annum.

I don't think that crazy big, but maybe 2 brand new GF, vehicle on the new platform, and some more 4680 news would be A+.

I don't think Tesla is ready to announce RT as a product yet and I think it would come across poorly to investors. Maybe another vehicle on the RT platform which can ship w or without a steering wheel? FSD is still not RoboTaxi Ready so announcing production of even a million Robotaxis would be a bit tonedeaf.

Robotaxi is long term. Maybe 2-4 years out. They need a bridge product.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Think alien dreadnought.

 

[Buckminster]

CT line is coming together (as stated on call). Could be that the folk visiting on the 1st will get a tour of the CT line.

 

[Eugene Ash]

any news on how to get invited to that?

 

[CatB]

any news on how to get invited to that?

Probably the same as last time. If you registered your shares (I think it was through "Say" which required you to give your brokerage login), then you're automatically entered into the drawing and if they pick you, you'll get an email and will have to RSVP.

 

[Buckminster]

So all of these are possible:

• H/W 4.0 incl radar, chip and cameras
• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody
• Highlander reveal
• RT reveal
• Buybacks or Tesla owned RT fleet
• Cybertruck pricing, launch and taking orders

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620657370811752448

Update:

• H/W 4.0 incl radar, chip and cameras
• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody
• Highlander reveal
• RT reveal
• Buybacks or Tesla owned RT fleet
• Cybertruck pricing, launch and taking orders (plus tour of line)
• Master Plan 3

 

[Artful Dodger]

So all of these are possible:

• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody

I don't think this is possible. The maximum dimension for a casting die on a IDRA Model 8000/9000 Gigapress is smaller than the wheelbase on the Tesla Model 3.

It MAY be possible to cast a one-piece chassis for an EV midway in size between the VW Golf and Polo, but that's likely the limit for the current generation of IDRA press.

Doesn't mean that Tesla can't build their own, or source a larger press elsewhere, it just implies that Project Highland likely won't be a single piece casting for Model 3. Finally, I don't think Tesla looses much by going to two castings. Model 3 is not the Gen 3 platform.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think this is possible. The maximum dimension for a casting die on a IDRA Model 8000/9000 Gigapress is smaller than the wheelbase on the Tesla Model 3.

These are some of the relevant numbers for a 9000 Gigapress.

Max. die height mm 2.600
Max shot weight (Al alloy) with 65% min. sleeve filling up and 95% of injection stroke kg 217,5
Max projected area with max sleeve diameter cm^2 16.846

129cm x 129cm = 1.29 metres x 1.29 metres, maybe that means this is the biggest cast a 9000 series can make, or maybe it means we are no hope of working it out. The surface area could span a longer structure if parts of it were thinner. but we don't know all of the limitations.

If "Connecting the Dots" is right about steering and braking, I think we can consider a Cybertruck line close enough to a Highland line.

IMO the changes of seeing a Highland line are very high, the question is if it is making Model 3s or Cybertrucks.

If "Connecting the Dots" is right then Tesla needs to find a way to get these steering and braking goodies into Model S/X ASAP, or otherwise Highland builds are in some ways superior.