possible but disagree on very likely.Agree or disagree: It is very likely TSLA closes at $670 or above next Thursday or Friday?
Comments also much appreciated.
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possible but disagree on very likely.Agree or disagree: It is very likely TSLA closes at $670 or above next Thursday or Friday?
Comments also much appreciated.
People drive differently. This will inevitably lead to whining about FSD. For aggressive drivers, it will be too docile. For overly cautious drivers, it will be too aggressive. And for those in between they will experience both because sometimes FSD is more aggressive than they would have been and at other times too slow. Add to that the inherent desire to feeling superior (remember this basic selling point of religions?) and difficulty of giving over control. It will take longer to subside than for the reduction in casualties to be apparent, I think. But then (again like religion) social pressure and fear will promote its adoption. Fear of losing one’s driving license or freedom to go where you want when old, or social pressure to have FSD : you don’t want to kill anyone now your reaction speed is worsening and you can’t turn your head as well, do you? Feelings of superiority (status) can also help adoption: My car has full self driving. To;dr: apart from the technical aspect lots of psychology is involved.
Idiotic high prices will be a deterrent. The value of FSD for a Semi Owner is different than for a retired person.
I agree, it's the best looking Tesla in the entire line-up. But looks is not what determines it's importance going forward. The biggest problem is it costs too much to make and so will only ever sell in relatively low volumes.
What if the actively managed funds, and other big sharks in the waters, have realized that instead of screwing retail investors (a relatively minor component of the market, which they can get back to soon enough), this setup gives them a chance to screw the S&P 500 index (well - funds actually)?
Maybe we're just swimming along in the school with them, as we all front run the S&P 500 inclusion?
In addition FSD being available will force the rest of the industry to offer similar capabilities on all of their offerings and adopt the Tesla approach of building the complete sensor suite into every vehicle produced. Because the competition offer so many different body styles compared to the 4 Tesla offer (S3XY) the redesign effort and mods to manufacturing will be costly and soak up large amounts of engineer effort. Tesla's competitive edge will increase further.I think this is false. If FSD progress is real this will lead to so much halo effect on the entire company, more cars sold, higher take rate, higher FSD price, higher insurance margins etc. And the value of selling the upgrade in itself is a lot of money. 2M cars in 2022, 50% take rate, $10k package = $10B in profit, PE50 -> $500B market cap. For FSD alone, even without considering robotaxi $100k value per vehicle greatest appreciation in history if Elon is correct.
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565$, with both SP500 and Nasdaq100 slightly up. Walking it slowly down as expected.Yes, this is what might be happening now. The front runners and other funds know the propensity of mms to manipulate this stock down due to options. So they are waiting patiently and buying every dip. That is why I think things will get really interesting on Monday or maybe it will start today.
The TSLA story is such an exception in that a lot of the retail investors success came at the expense of the big boys who have hoped the company would go bankrupt.
I think you're wrong about this. The market is inherently forward-looking even though stock market analysts lag. FSD is such a revolutionary technology that investors will start "pricing it in" the shares gradually, as it becomes apparent to people of normal intelligence and learnings that it's going to happen. The revenue doesn't need to modelled in analyst's spreadsheet in order to start being "priced in" to the shares. And some analysts are already doing crude modeling of FSD revenues.
I think you're right about that, but who cares? Let the shorts scream from the hill top. It simply doesn't matter. No one of any importance listens to them.
Only if these non-Tesla trucks are 100% EV, otherwise this won't be compatible with Tesla's mission to accelerate the transition to renewable. Trying to become the "next Uber for freight" is not in line with the company's vision unless it's all electric.A great strategy for Tesla after completing FSD would be to license it out to other truck companies. This way they allow Tesla cars to retain their uniqueness in the auto industry as well as make big DOUGH with licensing FSD. Licensing FSD to other auto makers very early would probably be incorrect.
Russ' $TSLA "Base", "Bear", "Best", and "Elon's 20M units" Share Price Predictions for 12/31/2030
I think @Robocop makes an important point. $AAPL market cap is ~$2T today. If you assume that $TSLA continues to be the dominant force in a growing EV market profit-wise (like Apple over Android), with Solar/Battery/HVAC(?) compounded growth, Tesla Network becomes reality, high-profit margin Tesla App Store created, etc., then it is reasonable that $TSLA might have a $4T market cap by 12/31/2030. Here's why:.......
Now, like Ark Investments did, I'll combine my weighted probabilities predictions of the price on 12/31/2030:
10% * $ 2,090 [Bear] = $ 209
40% * $ 4,200 [Base] = $1,680
40% * $19,133 [Best] = $7,653
10% * $27,045 [Elon] = $2,704
I predict the 12/31/2030 share price will be $12,246 which is an average CAGR of 35.8%.
It would be an interesting exercise if others posted their 2030 "bear", "base", and "best" case scenarios (with their derivation) for 12/31/2030 by 1/1/2021 [2]. Then we can HOLDR and see who came closest a decade from now! If my $19,133 "best case" comes true I will buy ALL of you a gourmet lunch (who fly in on your private electric jets ) to attend the 2031 Tesla Annual Stockholders Meeting!
Russ
565$, with both SP500 and Nasdaq100 slightly up. Walking it slowly down as expected.
Edit: 563
With all the talks about FSD value and impact on the SP, I see nobody talk about the value of FSD in the trucking industry, Trucking is worth 800-1000B each year in the US alone. The biggest cost/impediment is due to the driver needing to sleep (In Europe the law does not allow drivers to drive more than 9 hours a day or 56 hours a week or only 90 hours in 2 consecutive weeks). Imagine the productivity gain when trucks can transport goods 24X7 and charging while unloading/loading. Platooning with FSD is obviously another huge pie with some estimating ~180B in operational cost saved.
A great strategy for Tesla after completing FSD would be to license it out to other truck companies. This way they allow Tesla cars to retain their uniqueness in the auto industry as well as make big DOUGH with licensing FSD. Licensing FSD to other auto makers very early would probably be incorrect.
I used to work for a VC firm where we dived really deep into finding the next Uber for freight.
565$, with both SP500 and Nasdaq100 slightly up. Walking it slowly down as expected.
Edit: 563
Agree or disagree: It is very likely TSLA closes at $670 or above next Thursday or Friday?
Comments also much appreciated.
Interesting!Thanksgiving 2019. Black Friday is the lowest volume in the middle of the screen. 2018 was MUCH uglier
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IMO Tesla is unique in that it makes high end cars like; Mercedes, BMW, Audi and even Ferrari, but also increasingly mid-market cars and lower priced cars like Ford, Toyota and GM. Tesla can survive in a wide range of price points.