Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rohan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425338532336386049

Tesla supposedly filing for five model Y variants.

Two short range lfp variants, two long range awd variants, and one performance variant.
*provided by kelvinyang on Twitter.

Checking Tesla china's website I only see three models currently:

View attachment 695115
Any ideas on what's going on here?

On a side note they also advertise enhanced Autopilot (EAP) which I thought wasn't being offered anymore, but makes sense they're still offering it in China due to the low takerate on FSD.
View attachment 695116

I assume "vertical parking" will require some sort of Space x package? /J

 

[insaneoctane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425252432339165192

Hmmm. Looks like the MM might take their foot off TSLA‘s throat soon….

 

[Tslynk67]

Spoiler: Parental Advisory Warning - the current $TSLAQ thesis...

Folks, I hesitated to post this, but I believe this website - which was posted to me as "arguments for Tesla's fraud" on Twitter - encapsulates the current $TSLAQ thesis

I didn't read it all, but what I did see was just a rehash, warmed-up nonsense from the last 10 years, they're even still citing the "battery swap fraud", can you believe it?

Anyway, I think it's useful for us to know what these idiots are wetting their pants over, I'm not even sure these are short-sellers these days, more like psychopaths

Read at your peril! Got Musked

 

[Favguy]

Spoiler: Parental Advisory Warning - the current $TSLAQ thesis...

Folks, I hesitated to post this, but I believe this website - which was posted to me as "arguments for Tesla's fraud" on Twitter - encapsulates the current $TSLAQ thesis

I didn't read it all, but what I did see was just a rehash, warmed-up nonsense from the last 10 years, they're even still citing the "battery swap fraud", can you believe it?

Anyway, I think it's useful for us to know what these idiots are wetting their pants over, I'm not even sure these are short-sellers these days, more like psychopaths

Read at your peril! Got Musked

Good grief, life is too short to even think about reading any of that crap. They must have a screw loose.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hmmm. Looks like the MM might take their foot off TSLA‘s throat soon….

I believe that's retail short interest. I don't think there's a count of MM naked shorting anywhere.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks like we now have a countdown to get TSLA shares on the cheap……Sept 15th. That’s when the Senate wants to have the final framework of the reconciliation legislation voted on. I still very much think there’s no way Wall St doesn’t get in front of this by flooding volume into Tesla stock days if not weeks before that Sept 15th date.

And please…..no responses about your worries that Tesla is going to somehow get excluded. If you want to be believe the entire US government is going to blatantly and illegally target Tesla, that’s fine and your opinion, but those fears has been stated enough at this point.

 

[Thekiwi]

Here are the details of the senate NON-BINDING vote last night - it limits EV tax credit to those earning under $100k, and also implements a price cap that means the tax credit will only apply to EVs costing less than $40k

Senate Backs Limiting EV Tax Credits (9:52 p.m.)
The Senate voted 51-48 for a non-binding amendment to the budget resolution aimed at limiting who can get a tax break for buying an electric car or truck and which vehicles qualify, potentially shaping the coming debate as Democrats prepare to expand the tax credit.

Republican Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska proposed prohibiting people making more than $100,000 a year from claiming EV tax credits and to end tax credits for EVs that cost more than $40,000 -- levels that would exclude many of the electric vehicles on the market or planned to come to the market in the next few years, including those promoted by President Joe Biden recently at the White House.

Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan argued vociferously against the amendment, calling it “anti-pickup truck.” But three Democrats voted for it -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.

One Republican opposed the amendment -- Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, a state that includes plants making EVs and batteries. -- Steven T. Dennis, Sophia Cai, Jennifer Dlouhy and Ari Natter

 

[jerry33]

Well as things go I am not sure we can replace all that capacity at that rate. Frankly I don't see the battery capacity. Secondly, I don't see the required tow capacity. If you put a 26k payload behind either light truck it becomes somewhat useless. Not unusual for these f350 and even a 250 to pull huge payloads over 100 miles a day. These are work trucks, guys working 12 hour days is not unusual. We were loading sawdust into a truck on Sunday at 10am and then he put 10k lbs of fencing on top, plus trailer (18' dump) I am sure he was pushing close to 20k lb plus his bed was full of tools and fuel, maybe another 1000lbs. He had driven there sunday morning and still had life to live, hour drive back to farm, then on to church after dropping trailer. Point being that I am not sure you'll see 0 ICE trucks by 2030. Also making sure you know that the f150 number includes the 250/350. Maybe 60-70% are actually the f150 getting replaced by the lightening. In any case I think it is moot, both tesla and ford will sell every truck made. Neither can get enough battery capacity and Tesla is way ahead of Ford. Ford was a late mover. VW moved earlier as did GM, GM just didn't do anything useful with that huge headstart. The freaking Volt/bolt. I mean great 10 years ago but just a lost project and they wasted that huge govt subsidy.

Ford only talked about F-150, they didn't say anything about the larger (and more profitable) trucks. People don't use F-150s to tow 26K payloads.

 

[jerry33]

I wish we had real data for how many working people use truck as you describe and how may are posers. I suspect it's close to 10/90, but I don't really know.

True, or close to true, for F-150. The larger trucks are too much of a handful to drive as a poser (as well as too expensive to fuel and maintain).

 

[jerry33]

At the risk of going off topic, I would like to expand upon my situation and say that, even though I am a Tesla fanboy through and through and would never buy any car other than a Tesla, I am miffed by the fact that there is no way for me to find out why we have to wait 8 or 9 months to get the car. This will be the third S that I have bought since 2013. I ordered this SLR for my wife who has recently fallen ill. There have been problems with each of the two Ss to date that I have not made a big deal of because, all things considered, it is still the best car I've ever owned. In any case, I wonder what the issue is. Is it because I ordered 19" wheels and they don't have them; is it because they have thousands of orders for much higher margin Plaids and they don't want to build a car that, since my order, has gone up in price by $10,000. It could be anything, but I don't think it is unreasonable for me to know the answer, as a dedicated owner and stakeholder.

Whenever a new model or significant upgrade has rolled out, the most expensive version has always been shipped first. This allows Tesla to be profitable after having spent a ton of money developing and ramping up production. It's just plain business good practice.

 

[Christine69420]

A camera team from the German Galileo TV channel visited Giga Berlin

Some of the footage is available on Reddit:

r/teslamotors - First ever camera team in GF Berlin

and is discussed here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/p1n4bt

The original footage is here but is geo-blocked and require a free registration. So a VPN might be needed to watch:

Galileo - Galileo Plus: Teslas Gigafactory - Alles giga in Grünheide?

 

[madodel]

Skeptics of the growth of EV manufacturing and sales have not been in short supply over the last several years. All of them have been wrong. I don't see any reason the future will be very different. Investors don't make superior returns by going with the status quo.



That's a ridiculous comparison. The F-150 Lightning, Cybertruck and the rest of the announced electric pickups only compete with the light-duty truck market, none of which can tow or haul anything approaching the loads you mentioned. It's a completely different use case scenario and small portion of the overall truck market. No one said there would be zero ICE truck sales by 2030. Ford's goals are pure fantasy, they are not mandatory and Ford doesn't intend to stick to them. They are simply lies to placate the regulators and get what they want (which is more ICE sales for as long as they can drag them out). Don't be fooled by Ford's rhetoric.

so you are saying these are compliance goals to go with their compliance cars/trucks.

 

[Nolimits]

Here are the details of the senate NON-BINDING vote last night - it limits EV tax credit to those earning under $100k, and also implements a price cap that means the tax credit will only apply to EVs costing less than $40k

This won’t help at all then. Not to mention tesla’s mission.

 

[redan]

Maybe this will help with the China FUD (big sales forecast for August and September):

Tesla sales in China expected to set new monthly record in August: insider - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[Thekiwi]

This won’t help at all then. Not to mention tesla’s mission.

Well actually, doesn’t it ONLY help Tesla? They are the only ones who can sell a $40k EV profitably at present with the 3 SR+. And since the Y is cheaper to build than the 3, then a Y SR Selling at $40k would be more profitable than the 3 is. Every other manufacturer will have to sell at a loss to get their cars down to $40k.

 

[Drezil]

Here are the details of the senate NON-BINDING vote last night - it limits EV tax credit to those earning under $100k, and also implements a price cap that means the tax credit will only apply to EVs costing less than $40k

So .. this means that you buy a M3 withoud FSD & then buy the FSD-Package after the purchase with the governmental Kickback? ... Sounds good for Tesla to me

Do the others have upgrades you can buy after the sale to make your car substantially better?

 

[samppa]

Asking European investors: is there a way to get a loan against TSLA shares? Degiro doesn't do that, and the French banks I contacted said they only offer such a service against European securities. I have a lot of capital taxes to pay in Sept to December, but I'd rather risk some TSLA against a low interest loan then sold them before EOY.

IKBR will give a margin loan.. but the margin requirement for tsla is fairly high so you can only borrow so much. Also remember they don't do margin calls..

I'm transfering some positions from Degiro to ikbr and it has taken over 4 months now, this is ridiculous..

 

[Singuy]

This won’t help at all then. Not to mention tesla’s mission.

Here are the details of the senate NON-BINDING vote last night - it limits EV tax credit to those earning under $100k, and also implements a price cap that means the tax credit will only apply to EVs costing less than $40k

Good luck getting 12.5k in taxes back when your household making 100k or less. Sometimes I wonder if these senetors even understand taxes and math.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Whenever a new model or significant upgrade has rolled out, the most expensive version has always been shipped first. This allows Tesla to be profitable after having spent a ton of money developing and ramping up production. It's just plain business good practice.

Mostly true. Model 3 first available was the long range RWD only due to production constraints. I wanted dual motors (more expensive) but it wasn’t available at first.

 

[Pezpunk]

just got an updated delivery date for my Plaid: February.

I ordered on September 22nd 2020 (the minute the Plaid was announced). RN11394xxxx (black/white/cf/19")

i was initially told to expect delivery in February of 2021. then July. Now February 2022.