Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

Ha, ha... So funny to listen to the SEC lawyer arguing this case:

Judge: So is the order clear and unambiguous?
SEC: Yes
Judge: Then what does it mean?
SEC: Uh, you know, it's like, well you know... [okay, she didn't exactly say this, but she practically did!]

Lol! This is better than night court! What law school did this lawyer go to?

 

[NicoV]

It's interesting... we were congratulating ourselves at how many vehicles Tesla was delivering in Europe... while in practice, Tesla was struggling with how few they had managed to deliver, due to logistics problems across the entire chain. As many as they delivered, they apparently planned to deliver even more, and had to struggle just to move as many as they did through the system.

Anyway, first ship of the new quarter is at Pier 80, and it's a biggie

The article claims that some cars were delivered in Q1 that were only intended for Q2 by pulling in the schedule of some of the ships. If that’s true Tesla must have had unexpectly lower demand in the USA, with Europe trying to save the quarter.
Anyway, still no SR on sale for Europe, and lots of complaints on FB by people who hoped to have had their car by now. Europe will have lots of demand for the high end Model 3s for quite some time. And an order of magnitude more demand for SR editions.

 

[Fact Checking]

The article claims that some cars were delivered in Q1 that were only intended for Q2 by pulling in the schedule of some of the ships. If that’s true Tesla must have had unexpectly lower demand in the USA, with Europe trying to save the quarter.

That's a possibility - another possibility is that the European logistics chain cleared out faster than some of the more conservative scenarios expected, which meant they could accelerate some of those ships.

Most of the 'stuck in delivery' units appear to have happened in China due to the customs hickup - and I think Tesla was trying to address that shortfall via delivering faster in Europe.

 

[WarpedOne]

Still waiting for my opportuinity to order an LR+PUP RWD ... reserved on 31/3/3016.I've tried to to do it abroad (Austria) .. no go.

 

[KarenRei]

Still waiting for my opportuinity to order an LR+PUP RWD ... reserved on 31/3/3016.I've tried to to do it abroad (Austria) .. no go.

I can't even get an AWD :Þ

Our times will come. Though it'd be nice if mainland Europe would stop buying so many top-spec models Q1 delays just means more waiting for us.

 

[jerry33]

Any theories why the stock didn’t pop after SEC hearing? Was it baked in or was there a heavy downside pressure from an institutional investor?

Most, if not all, news agencies spun it as a loss for Musk, even though it wasn't.

 

[replicant]

Cross-posted in the oil thread: European Commission finds German automakers illegally colluded on emissions technology | DW | 05.04.2019

 

[jerry33]

It would be a disaster. Government makes terrible business sense. Let them govern and let business people run the businesses. Everyone is much better off that way.

Correct. Government is best at providing services (when it's not hampered with poison pills). Industry is best at creating profits, and very poor at providing services (just look at the mess industry has made of healthcare).

 

[T@oo]

Most, if not all, news agencies spun it as a loss for Musk, even though it wasn't.

Confirmed for Germany. It's ridiculous. What about other countries like Iceland, Norway, Austria, ... ? Can someone report? Or is it just the nations with own big auto industry?

 

[KarenRei]

Confirmed for Germany. It's ridiculous. What about other countries like Iceland, Norway, Austria, ... ? Can someone report? Or is it just the nations with own big auto industry?

Wasn't covered here.

 

[Leo9]

TSLA is up premarket despite the latest and greatest price target cut:

"Vertical Group says Tesla running out of car buyers, cuts price target to $54. (link: http://dlvr.it/R2Cww6) dlvr.it/R2Cww6 "

 

[shlokavica22]

ING economist Carsten Brzeski says: "These days, German industry leaves many analysts scratching their heads. Sure, there are external headwinds but the slowdown has been too severe to exclusively be justified by Brexit, China and trade. Either there is more and structural weaknesses finally leave their mark on industry or a rebound is still in the offing, not only on the back of a reversal of last year’s one-off factors but also on the back of some global relief."

 

[Tslynk67]

As a bull, the current setup is good. I don't have to look over my shoulder wondering if anoyher pedo or 420 tweet is coming.

Basically, anything that stops a tweet from moving the stock price by 5% or more. What the SEC did is counter to the intents of the settoement. What was supposed to be ebforcement that calms became enforcements that ended up causing the same thing. Someone at sec got scorned and is out for revenge. And is on a powertrip that think they can do no wrong because "mah government". Funded by tax payers who are tesla stock holders. Of which, I am one, even though I am not american. I still pay all the sec fees and 25% witholding taxes.

Sorry, but what's the difference between a tweet or Tesla releasing a blog article announcing material info.

If anything, the tweet is more ubiquitous.

I can accept that anything tweeted needs to be correct, sure, and maybe the exchange needs prior notice, sure, and maybe some things should be outside regular market hours. But otherwise it makes no sense and this "deal" is ridiculous.

 

[shlokavica22]

Cross-posted in the oil thread: European Commission finds German automakers illegally colluded on emissions technology | DW | 05.04.2019

What the Commission found:

• From 2006 to 2014, the three German automakers conspired to limit the development and roll-out of emission cleaning technology for passenger cars sold in Europe.
• The talks were aimed at restricting competition and "breached EU antitrust rules."
• Two types of technology specifically were restricted: one to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel cars, and another to reduce harmful particulate matter from petrol engine cars.
• The companies "denied consumers the opportunity to buy less polluting cars" despite the technology being available.

 

[oneday]

Ok here is my list of things I think should be in the settlement letter:

• Tesla will submit monthly updates as to compliance with Elon’s settlement [+1 for SEC, as they requested in court]
• Should the SEC find they believe a twit was material & after RFI from Tesla shows he did not obtain pre-approval, they enter into court appointed (pre-appointed) confidential arbitration [+1 for the court, saves court time]
• The SEC accepts Tesla’s current policies and procedures, regarding the previously agreed to settlement, including allowing Musk discretion in twitting. [+1 for Elon, he gets to continue to follow what he previously agreed to]

May it please the court, as I believe it provides a win for everybody.

 

[Fact Checking]

Correct. Government is best at providing services (when it's not hampered with poison pills). Industry is best at creating profits, and very poor at providing services (just look at the mess industry has made of healthcare).

I'd define it this way:

Government is good at running natural monopolies and services where there's little competition, which come in three main groups:

• Essential resources management: Water supply, road network, electricity, sewage and waste disposal, monetary system,
• Defense against human threats and related conflict resolution and enforcement: the military, the police, the judiciary and regulatory agencies,
• Defense against biological threats: healthcare, disease control, sanitary regulations,
• Long term growth: education, scientific research and exploration.
• Social services: because we as a people care.

A modern government is basically an insurance company with an army. Ideal government size is around ~10% of the total labor force, the other ~90% employed in the private sector.

The private sector is best suited everywhere else where price discovery is fast and where there's market based competition. This covers the large majority of economic activities.

 

[mongo]

Okay, I'll bite. The refreSh (when it comes) will include the following:

• 2170 format 'Maxcell' pack with minimum 130 kwh, later > 200 kwh
• 300 mile range charging in < 15 min
  
• dual rear motors based on Roadster / SRPM driveline
• top speed > 180 mph / 300 kmh
• Quarter mile in < 10 sec @ 145 mph in 'Plaid' model
  
• Bonus feature: "FSD track mode":
  • enabled for geofenced + approved tracks
    
  • Cams watch 'Christmas Tree' lights for countdown
    
  • cuts the green light with < 50 ms reaction time
    
  • self-drives complete race including collision avoidance
    
  • interior camera monitors passengers for safety
  • auto-return to pit lane parking
  • basically its an electric rollercoaster ride

The bad news? Don't expect this major engineereing redesign until after Semi/Roadster/Pickup are all in production. It reuses their tech, and those programs are higher priority for Tesla's long term interests. Best guess is not before 2022. By then, there MIGHT be a competetor for the 2012 Model S, but that's not certain either.

Cheers!

P.S. Everybody's whining about Model S demand in Q1, but nobody's talking about Mercedes S Class or BMW 7 sales. How's dat competetion?

If Tesla does acquire the use of Maxwell dry electrode tech, they could theoretically boost the 18650 capacity 30% to 50% without a redesign yielding a 130 to 150kWh pack and giving a greater than 30% range boost (buffer/ anti brick capacity doesn't change).

Fits in with the little data we have:
Recent statement: Not changing S/X from 18650 and also not talking about future developments
Maxwell improvements plus having worked with a partner...

 

[Fact Checking]

What the Commission found:

• From 2006 to 2014, the three German automakers conspired to limit the development and roll-out of emission cleaning technology for passenger cars sold in Europe.
• The talks were aimed at restricting competition and "breached EU antitrust rules."
• Two types of technology specifically were restricted: one to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel cars, and another to reduce harmful particulate matter from petrol engine cars.
• The companies "denied consumers the opportunity to buy less polluting cars" despite the technology being available.

So German carmakers were conspiring to kill people for profits?

 

[Tslynk67]

Alibaba is really bad about this for some sites I visit. You check out industrial prices of bulk chemicals once and you're getting ads for those chemicals for ages Alumium powder and beryllium ore in particular were popping up in ads for months.

Don't really know how to respond to that

 

[Fact Checking]

ING economist Carsten Brzeski says: "These days, German industry leaves many analysts scratching their heads. Sure, there are external headwinds but the slowdown has been too severe to exclusively be justified by Brexit, China and trade. Either there is more and structural weaknesses finally leave their mark on industry or a rebound is still in the offing, not only on the back of a reversal of last year’s one-off factors but also on the back of some global relief."

Hm, what big car industry transformation process could possibly be behind the slowdown of the German industry?

What new revolutionary product which is desired by 74% of U.S. car customers are German carmakers not building at scale yet, which new product could possibly account for consumer reluctance to buy the old, obsolete products of German carmakers?

I think we covered that new product here on TMC too, the name is on the tip of my tongue, but I just cannot recall it - can anyone help me and ING economist Carsten Brzeski out please??