Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

All right, guys. This is easy. E = m*c^2. A Model 3 battery pack is 75 kW-hr. That's good old energy. To get it into SI units, we have 3.6 MJ/kW-hr.

Speed-o-light is 3e8 m/s.

So, the amount of energy in a M3 battery pack is 75 * 3.6e6 = 270 MJ.

Then, m = E/(c*c) = 270e6/(3e8*3e8) = 3e-9 kg. Or, putting it into grams, we have 3e-6 g. Six micrograms of electrons for a M3 battery pack.

Now, where it might get mildly interesting is considering the masses of the individual electrons. A free-floating electron has mass, sure, but when it gets tucked into a close orbital around the nucleus of some atom or other energy gets radiated off and the mass of the single electron would thereby decrease.

But in this case it's electrons flowing in or out; and the energy state of individual electrons is whatever-they-are; the total increase in mass goes right back to Einstein. As I said, simple.

Funny thing, though: While the mass is negligible compared to the mass of the car or semi, it is, actually, measurable. There are commercial microgram scales all over. (Although a single flake of paint masses that much...)
--
Added: And the SO found the hole in the argument, such as it is: The fuel in a ICE-based semi might weigh a literal ton; but the batteries in a BEV-based semi do weigh, well a lot.

On the other hand: the ICE motor and transmission probably weigh a lot more than the motors and what passes for a transmission in a BEV-based semi..

Pretty sure this isn’t how it works. At the risk of looking like a fool (it’s never stopped me before): when you charge a car, you aren’t pumping electrons in. You are instead moving lithium ions from the cathode to the anode through the application of an electric field. You are forcing the existing electrons in the cathode to run through the charger circuit and reunite with the lithium ions in the anode. Likewise during discharge, you allow the electrons in the lithium ions to flow through the motor and reunite with those same migrating lithium ions that are now moving from anode to cathode.

Your energy to mass calculation, I believe, just calculated how much mass you’d have if you somehow converted the 75 kWh of bound up chemical energy of those anode lithium ions into matter. To do that you’d need some sort of energy to matter converter. That isn’t something that’s very common and certainly doesn’t live in an EV.

 

[Tony73]

All right, guys. This is easy. E = m*c^2. A Model 3 battery pack is 75 kW-hr. That's good old energy. To get it into SI units, we have 3.6 MJ/kW-hr.

Speed-o-light is 3e8 m/s.

So, the amount of energy in a M3 battery pack is 75 * 3.6e6 = 270 MJ.

Then, m = E/(c*c) = 270e6/(3e8*3e8) = 3e-9 kg. Or, putting it into grams, we have 3e-6 g. Six micrograms of electrons for a M3 battery pack.

Now, where it might get mildly interesting is considering the masses of the individual electrons. A free-floating electron has mass, sure, but when it gets tucked into a close orbital around the nucleus of some atom or other energy gets radiated off and the mass of the single electron would thereby decrease.

But in this case it's electrons flowing in or out; and the energy state of individual electrons is whatever-they-are; the total increase in mass goes right back to Einstein. As I said, simple.

Funny thing, though: While the mass is negligible compared to the mass of the car or semi, it is, actually, measurable. There are commercial microgram scales all over. (Although a single flake of paint masses that much...)
--
Added: And the SO found the hole in the argument, such as it is: The fuel in a ICE-based semi might weigh a literal ton; but the batteries in a BEV-based semi do weigh, well a lot.

On the other hand: the ICE motor and transmission probably weigh a lot more than the motors and what passes for a transmission in a BEV-based semi..

The charge carriers in a lithium ion battery are lithium ions believe it or not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

and we get rough weight estimate 60-70 000 pounds for 2 semi with small trailer

Well, at 60K lbs that's 22K for each Semi and 15K for the trailer. I think we knew that already.

What we did hear new is that Tesla Semi has up to 1,500 hp AND is configured for each customer Note that's at least 375 hp for EACH MOTOR in a quad motor setup! We haven't heard that before! Paging @mongo

Tesla Semi also senses the load attached and matches its power to maintain consistent performance. Nice!

BTW, extremely unlikely the plaid carbon-wrapped motors put out 500hp each for a tri-motor 1,500 hp Semi - the Quebec software-uncorked Plaid S shows the tri-motor has a max power right around 1175 hp.

We also learned Truck Director: "Tesla has made 60-70 Semis on the pilot production line as of Sep 2023"

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where are the call and put walls this morning for this week? It seems to me that almost nothing else matters to TSLA anymore other than options manipulation

See @Papafox #4,067 (17 min ago).

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Go for the jugular UAW! I’m rooting for you to put Ford out of business, then GM.

Seems the move to split Ford into "Model E" and "Ford Blue" may yet be their salvation: Stranded ICE assets all moved to legacy company, along with UAW contracts and pension obligations. Good for Ford in the long run; so long as you understand their pension liability will move to the Federal Gov't (ie: taxpayers) when Ford Blew "blows"...

 

[kyzhk]

Pretty sure this isn’t how it works. At the risk of looking like a fool (it’s never stopped me before): when you charge a car, you aren’t pumping electrons in. You are instead moving lithium ions from the cathode to the anode through the application of an electric field. You are forcing the existing electrons in the cathode to run through the charger circuit and reunite with the lithium ions in the anode. Likewise during discharge, you allow the electrons in the lithium ions to flow through the motor and reunite with those same migrating lithium ions that are now moving from anode to cathode.

Your energy to mass calculation, I believe, just calculated how much mass you’d have if you somehow converted the 75 kWh of bound up chemical energy of those anode lithium ions into matter. To do that you’d need some sort of energy to matter converter. That isn’t something that’s very common and certainly doesn’t live in an EV.

For any chemical reactions, the total mass of reactants and products differ by mass given in E=mc^2, where E is the energy released or absorbed into the system during the reactions, and mass is the delta of the total mass of products less that of reactants.

The energy stored/released in forming/breaking chemical bonds is indeed reflected in the mass differences of products and reactants.

Consider a 75 kWh battery that is completely self contained (i.e. does not release or absorb things from surroundings),
such battery when fully charged would weight about 10^-9 kg more than when its fully discharged.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meh, he was within a couple of percentage points. Much closer than most uber bullish armchair analysts here, I suspect.

If it's any help, I updated my 2023 personal Q3 Deliveries estimate on Sep 19, 2023: 444,845 (snippet atth'd)

This estimate was updated on Sep 19, 2023 but as you can see it's a framework for a 10-year estimate on Deliveries, as follows:

1. Given start year 2020 deliveries of 0.500 Million; Assume +50% annual Deliveries increase until 20M
2. Columm 2 is Predicted deliveries in Millions (based on +50% growth) for each year from 2020 to 2029
3. Column 3 is the Actual deliveries (including partials for the current year)
4. The Footer of this Table shows the growth rate required in the following year to stay "on pace" for 50%

As you can see, none of these predictions depends on anything that wasn't public after the Conference Call on July 19, 2023. No ship trackers, no drone overflights, just Tesla guidance and performance. It can't get any simpler than this.

Further comment: my 445K Q3 Deliveries Estimate would have been extremely close had 10K new Highland Models 3 not been on ships, docks, or awaiting Gov't certification in China at the end of Q3. Simple answer: Tesla HAS A PLAN, and they are STICKING TO IT. (they have to tell their suppliers 6 mths to 2 yrs in advance).

Yeah, Stephenson nailed it- good on him. I don't really follow James or many Tesla YouTubers besides Rob Maurer these days. Even been trimming back on Rob. There is life outside Tesla after all.

I tried to watch James's P&D video, but couldn't get past his little rat dog. I think it was Part 15. E'nuff already! Rob drones on these days, pandering to the bears, and trying to be a good boy explaining everything (and concluding nothing). Life outside Tesla? Perhaps, but I think the odds are better for life if it includes a large dose of Tesla (Energy, Robotaxi, Solar, Heat pumps, Industrial process heat, ...)

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

Wow. It's just silly how much more advanced (I believe) the Semi is compared to an ICE semi. Like, two different torques for the two pairs of rear drive wheels to provide both initial acceleration and efficient highway cruising (= quicker runs = $ profit). And SOOO much energy saved with regen compared to an ICE semi descending mountains pumping out heat for nothin' (= reduced fuel cost = $ saved). The disc brakes are basically 'emergency brakes' only. Fantastic. 4680 volume production can't come soon enough!

Honestly, I was disappointed to hear about the clutch in and out for the higher torque motor. More moving parts. No part is the best part. I'm sure Tesla has considered wear, tear, maintenance as part of TCO. Nonetheless, I was a little disappointed to learn the semi couldn't avoid extra parts like the cars...

 

[SmokyPeat]

Pretty sure this isn’t how it works. At the risk of looking like a fool (it’s never stopped me before): when you charge a car, you aren’t pumping electrons in. You are instead moving lithium ions from the cathode to the anode through the application of an electric field. You are forcing the existing electrons in the cathode to run through the charger circuit and reunite with the lithium ions in the anode. Likewise during discharge, you allow the electrons in the lithium ions to flow through the motor and reunite with those same migrating lithium ions that are now moving from anode to cathode.

Your energy to mass calculation, I believe, just calculated how much mass you’d have if you somehow converted the 75 kWh of bound up chemical energy of those anode lithium ions into matter. To do that you’d need some sort of energy to matter converter. That isn’t something that’s very common and certainly doesn’t live in an EV.

You are correct that we aren't pumping in electrons when we charge Li ion batteries. No need for an energy to matter converter, though. Energy has mass. Whether that's light energy, electro-chemical battery energy, or nuclear fission energy. The mass of the energy in a fully charged Tesla battery is just a few micrograms, so not really worth giving too much consideration. Other than a nod to professor Einstein.

 

[Tronguy]

Pretty sure this isn’t how it works. At the risk of looking like a fool (it’s never stopped me before): when you charge a car, you aren’t pumping electrons in. You are instead moving lithium ions from the cathode to the anode through the application of an electric field. You are forcing the existing electrons in the cathode to run through the charger circuit and reunite with the lithium ions in the anode. Likewise during discharge, you allow the electrons in the lithium ions to flow through the motor and reunite with those same migrating lithium ions that are now moving from anode to cathode.

Your energy to mass calculation, I believe, just calculated how much mass you’d have if you somehow converted the 75 kWh of bound up chemical energy of those anode lithium ions into matter. To do that you’d need some sort of energy to matter converter. That isn’t something that’s very common and certainly doesn’t live in an EV.

Um. Think of the battery as a black box with a couple of wires sticking out. With the thing fully discharged, weigh the sucker.

Attach power supply and clamp on current meter. Feed electrons in (Yeah, and out, it’s a complete circuit. Being a EE, the math is usually played with “positive” current going in the positive lead and out the negative lead, although the charge carriers are negatively charged: thanks, Ben Franklin!).

Disconnect the leads. Maybe wait for it all to cool down. Weigh it again. It’ll weigh more by a few micrograms, thank you, Einstein, seeing as there’s more energy in there. Charge carriers or whatever.

But I think you got me, though: For every electron going in the positive terminal, there’s one going out the negative terminal. The extra mass is probably showing up as a totality of bigger E-fields throughout the battery in the various ions as they get forced into higher energy states.

But this business of things with higher energy having more mass is very, very real and present in chemical reactions everywhere. And it wouldn’t matter if the battery was mechanical somehow and built out of springs; wind the springs up and, yup, it’ll mass more. Not by a lot, given, but it’s real.

 

[MartinAustin]

...come January when Tesla will undoubtedly "accept assignment" for the $7500 rebate up front making it even easier for folks to afford...

Can you explain this part? How does the manufacturer take off the $7,500 if it's a tax credit? Doesn't that depend on what your tax return looks like? (which you file the following year)

 

[insaneoctane]

In regards to S & X numbers, I suspect that the price cuts impacts will be felt in Q4. Two of my friends ordered right after the price cuts (ultra red model X -both) and they expect delivery in late Oct early Nov.

Yes, but once the reduced prices were announced, all undelivered vehicles should have been adjusted down to the new price. If folks ordering right after the announcement are slated for delivery in Q4, it demonstrates an unusually low production rate IMO. The price reductions should have resulted in a growing backlog that only increasing production would alleviate....that doesn't appear to have happened, surprisingly. Plus they offered the FSD-transfer 'kicker' in Q3...Either these high interest rates and uncertain economy are hitting MS/MX sales hard, or there's a bottleneck at Freemont.

 

[MartinAustin]

Either these high interest rates and uncertain economy are hitting MS/MX sales hard, or there's a bottleneck at Freemont.

Agreed that this is quite puzzling. Lamborghini and Ferrari are both making more cars than ever before... so it's not finance problems with the wealthy. Maybe a Plaid isn't as much of a wealth statement as we think it is? Potential buyers are stopped in their tracks by loan rates? Where are the cash buyers? In the world of the wealthy, a $90,000 car is a scooby-snack.

 

[Robertj]

30 % of the S & X market disappeared when Tesla stopped offering RHD vehicles

 

[Crystal01]

30 % of the S & X market disappeared when Tesla stopped offering RHD vehicles

Indeed. Self inflicted

 

[insaneoctane]

Curious, is the RWD MY just released officially the slowest Tesla at 6.6sec to 60?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly, I was disappointed to hear about the clutch in and out for the higher torque motor.

It's a dog clutch on the torque axle:

"A dog clutch (also known as a positive clutch or dog gears) is a type of clutch that couples two rotating shafts or other rotating components by engagement of interlocking teeth or dogs rather than by friction."​

Simplest possible coupling, and it actually REDUCES then number of moving parts by disengaging two of the three motors for the majority of the trip. It's just slightly that possible Tesla engineers have thought this thru more than you...

Cheers!

 

[SageBrush]

30 % of the S & X market disappeared when Tesla stopped offering RHD vehicles

Thank you, XKCD

 

[raffiniert]

I have no idea why it's important in this thread but yes, a charged battery is heavier than a discharged one:

Does the mass of a battery change when charged/discharged?

If so, how much? Is it possible to detect it, or is it beyond any measurement? I'd say there are two possible scenarios (depending on the battery type) and both seem interesting: The battery reacts

physics.stackexchange.com

So, 3.75 micrograms for a 100kWh battery.

 

[UkNorthampton]

As mentioned in Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats by @Mio S

Latest numbers from Turkey:

Tesla Model Y total registrations:

September: 4.700

January* - September: 10.200

*Mid-May 2023 to end of September, no sales before that.

For September 2023, Model Y is second best selling SUV (of all powertrains) in Turkey. Egea Cross at 4869 sales vs MY at 4700 (suspiciously round number, supply problem/estimate?). Togg is also an EV (turkish made/design) and is in 3rd place. so 2 out of top 3 SUVs are newly introduced EVs.

Turkey very rapidly passed 10% EV to 13+% in September. Seems to be "officially" reported (not 100% sure, but oft-quoted organisation now includes Tesla stats, this is first time).

Why does this interest me?

1. New EV market
2. Regarded (by many) as relatively poor country
3. Huge EV adoption
4. Tesla winning over other EVs, only one ICE SUV outsells, just by a small margin
5. Scope for increase demand from "bums on seats", price reductions, more supply, familiarity, expanding charging network
6. Plenty more world markets for Tesla to conquer - not just the "rich" countries many people assume Tesla is limited to
7. Probably more scope to send more vehicles - so Berlin can be less concerned over matching supply/demand elsewhere. Just pump them out.
8. Poor charging networks until recently, early stage, will get better

Spoiler: Tweet source in Turkish 1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1709125569495843180

SUV rankings were also mixed in September

While Egea Cross's leadership continues, Tesla is in 2nd place, Togg is in 3rd place, and Chery is in 4th place.

New brands have left traditional brands behind. The competition has gotten even more intense.

In the January-September period, the ranking is still low on the list because new brands enter the market later. But despite this, Tesla has already entered in 8th place.

Spoiler: Tweet source in Turkish 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1709111586856542372

While the share of electric car sales in total sales increased to 13.22% in September, it increased to 5.19% at the end of 9 months. (Tesla effect)

In September, electric and diesel were almost equal.

Let's see if electric diesel will be replaced in November, as in Europe

Spoiler: Chart-Images