Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

My guess is spring or summer of 2021, but I'm well aware that that puts me solidly on the optimistic side of timelines. My suspicion is that while Tesla hasn't announced the location yet, they're extremely active behind the scenes working on it already, including an extra emphasis on how to avoid / compensate for regulatory hassles.

The other important thing is that they likely have their orders in for all the known required long lead equipment.

Regarding the cell supply. Since Tesla is expanding their 2170 supply base (local sourcing for China production), they could potentially outsource the supplier agnostic Energy cells and switch the (qty) three or so lines at GF1 to controlled Automotive cells for 3/Y. Subject to supplier capacity, of course.

 

[Fact Checking]

I can't say it's improved that much over the last six plus years, but it hasn't gotten worse either, except for the phone tree problem a couple of months ago. I believe that's been mainly fixed though.

How was it fixed?

 

[CyberDutchie]

I am wondering where is Adam Jonas. And what’s he up to with regards to the rating and price target for TSLA now...

I used to get his notes and posted them here, but they removed me from the mailing list.

You’d expect at some point he has to wake up to reality and update his models and must come out with a much higher price target.

In the past, his notes and price target changes moved the stock significantly.

 

[powertoold]

New Wondering where is Adam Jonas? and what’s he up to with regards to the rating and price target for TSLA now?

He'll be back in 100 years to say "see! I told you Tesla will be $10!"

 

[Heimdallr]

He'll be back in 100 years to say "see! I told you Tesla will be $10!"

You mean after a 1000:1 stock split?

 

[GaryW]

I am wondering where is Adam Jonas. And what’s he up to with regards to the rating and price target for TSLA now...

I used to get his notes and posted them here, but they removed me from the mailing list.

You’d expect at some point he has to wake up to reality and update his models and must come out with a much higher price target.

In the past, his notes and price target changes moved the stock significantly.

He is averaging just under a coin toss on his ratings.

 

[wipster]

Way OT:

Was laying in bed last night and I asked Google a fairly complicated question... within 10 secs my Aussie sweetheart read me about a paragraph answering my query. I then said "Hey Google, do you know how cool you are?"

She replied, "Like a cucumber."

Damn I love the 21st century... well most of it.

 

[The Accountant]

I am wondering where is Adam Jonas. And what’s he up to with regards to the rating and price target for TSLA now...

I used to get his notes and posted them here, but they removed me from the mailing list.

You’d expect at some point he has to wake up to reality and update his models and must come out with a much higher price target.

In the past, his notes and price target changes moved the stock significantly.

Found this in an article summarizing Tesla Analysts' comments:

Morgan Stanley, Equal-Weight, Price Target Unchanged at $230

"Tesla posted a stronger than expected 3Q gross auto margin and cash flow. A repeat of last year's unsustainable second half run? Or is the Tesla business model finally finally achieving self-financing status? The China ramp may extend this year's momentum deep into 2020."

- Adam Jonas

 

[Prunesquallor]

...

Again, and this is not in dispute, GF4/EU is Tesla's priority for capital spending in 2020. I expect FCA/Eurozone C02 credits to cover that capital expense.

...

If this is the strategy, FCA is truly on the horns of a dilemma. Either damage/destroy their company through ruinous CO2 penalties or damage/destroy their company by financing the expansion of a competitor right in their own backyard.

The option to develop their own ZEVs was delayed too long.

 

[StealthP3D]

Way OT:

Was laying in bed last night and I asked Google a fairly complicated question... within 10 secs my Aussie sweetheart read me about a paragraph answering my query. I then said "Hey Google, do you know how cool you are?"

She replied, "Like a cucumber."

Damn I love the 21st century... well most of it.

Just don't try to get romantic with her. She is as cool as a cucumber.

What did you ask her? "Why are stock analysts so highly paid when throwing a dart gives higher returns?"

 

[EVNow]

Free cash flow is now so strong it can invest in GF1, GF2, GF3 and Fremont at the same time while remaining cash flow positive.

Conservatively Tesla should be generating about $2B in operating cashflow per quarter by Q4 '20.

BTW, here is my forecast for Q4 & 2020 - including Y & Solar.

So, shifting the 10k installs by 3 quarters to account for Elon's time … we get to $10B revenue & $800M in gaap profit by Q4 '20. I'd consider the forecast somewhat conservative. I've assumed a slow rollout of Y, Solar & GF3.

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[anthonyj]

The ultimate buy signal. This guy is consistently wrong and trades on pure emotion

sonic (@sonicmerlin) | Stocktwits

 

[wipster]

Just don't try to get romantic with her. She is as cool as a cucumber.

What did you ask her? "Why are stock analysts so highly paid when throwing a dart gives higher returns?"

Something about Australian time difference... my Uncle is heading down under to visit relatives in Adelaide so I wanted to know the best time to Skype him. Maybe tonight I'll ask her your question, if I remember...

 

[EVNow]

The ultimate buy signal. This guy is consistently wrong and trades on pure emotion

sonic (@sonicmerlin) | Stocktwits

Looks like they want to short at $350 (in comments).

 

[EVNow]

If this is the strategy, FCA is truly on the horns of a dilemma. Either damage/destroy their company through ruinous CO2 penalties or damage/destroy their company by financing the expansion of a competitor right in their own backyard.

The option to develop their own ZEVs was delayed too long.

Are there any FCA plants in EU they can take over ? Spend an extra month to dismantle the plant and build new - but cut down a year or more in permits.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Tesla is doing very well right now.

I am wondering, if the cash flow in the coming 12 months can support the expansion going on:

1. Model Y production equipment

2. Roadster production line

3. GF4 project (land, buildings, equipment)

4. Scaling of the roof in the coming months will cost for production equipment and to finance the time it takes from making the roof to collecting the money for the installed roof

5. production capacity for the semi

6. production capacity expansion for batteries and probably cells

7. repayment of debts that are due in these 12 months

I guess some of these items can be covered by the $5MM cash on hand, some more by loans.

As so often in the past, I believe Tesla and Elon keep finding many interesting (and profitable) ways to spend money. Way faster than the cash comes in. That is a good thing because it accelerates the mission.


But do we rule out a cap-raise in the next 12 months?

 

[Snerruc]

possible

GF1 is cheap to buildout, but there's a shortage of housing, labour, and just general utilities in the Reno area. Tesla may well have to implement their plan of building out housing and general community infrastructure on their own.

I do see it as increasingly likely, however.

the real problem is water. You have to possess the necessary water rights to build new housing or towns.

 

[KarenRei]

Just don't try to get romantic with her. She is as cool as a cucumber.

I think there was a movie along these lines.

 

[SebastianR]

What do you think: Are we turning a page with regards to TSLA here? If we go back to the old thread: Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

The key point behind the relentless attacks on Tesla was to induce a crisis of confidence that will prevent people from buying the actual Tesla products and thus drive them out of business (also ref. the Fairfax example).

Can you help me pierce my bubble? If Tesla even on a "decline" in turnover manages to squeeze out a profit, if their expansion right now is clearly not soaking up all the cash available to Tesla - is this attack vector on TSLA futile? And will we see a significant portion of the short position go away now?

Every day more Tesla cars are flooding the markets. And sales cause sales (we all know this) - so all the FUD in the media is getting less and less effective if a) your neighbour tells you the car is awesome and b) the company shows pretty decent financials.

Now if the shorts were to fold: could we expect a short covering rally? (Not a squeeze, I don't believe in that). What's your take?

 

[KarenRei]

Now if the shorts were to fold: could we expect a short covering rally? (Not a squeeze, I don't believe in that). What's your take?

A short-covering rally is the definition of a short squeeze. And this is one. Our last big one was after Q3 '18.

They'll be back, of course - at least those who have the money to come back. Some at $350, some at $380, some at $400.... they only peel off for good when they get burned badly enough, and repeatedly enough, that they give up. Usually with some remark along the lines of, "I was right and it's still a zero, but the market can remain delusional longer than a short can remain solvent."