Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Kind of to answer the questions on Solar/PW battery backup. We’re in wildfire PG&E safety shut down area (encompasses many counties) and plunked down our $100 deposit for our solar panel and Powerwall order. Have other neighbors who have had Tesla installs, one just recently we visited, plus read posts on TMC’s Energy area. We hope to have the panels installed this month and PWs won’t get done until fall (due to huge demand here — PG&E announced likely 10 years of forced blackouts due to fire conditions and high winds until areas can be isolated and equipment and overhead lines buried).

Anyway our assigned Energy contact has been super knowledgeable. They use high rez overhead photos for a proposed layout of our solar panels (med system, 24 panels) and we’re purchasing 2 PW. We provided photos including of our main panel and breakers and also our utility bill showing our annual usage. We discussed what appliances we wanted to run off the PWs. We had discussions about how install would happen, how the conduit could be run among other things. All very professional. Early on they came back with a proposal including what equipment would be provided, we asked for a revision on the roof layout. We provided photos of our garage walls as we wanted the PWs and majority of equipment installed inside. At some point we signed our contract after nailing down all the details. 1/2 due at start of project and balance at completion. They went to the city and obtained our permit. We are awaiting scheduling.

This is all new to us and we’ll have a lot to learn down the road about using the equipment but have been impressed so far with the process. Was a bit unusual planning this install without having anyone out to the house yet. There is a lot that goes into planning all this on their part and the $100 goes towards the time they put in to do the roof layout and initial proposal. The installations we’ve seen have been done very cleanly. In our area getting solar and PW battery back up is really popular and our city is fast tracking applications. Tesla is training more staff. They really are growing the Energy business this year.

I’d recommend bugging them constantly during any periods where you’re waiting on something(for example, permission to operate paperwork after the install is done). I went into much more detail in the service and communications(out of main) thread, but they can sometimes be pretty bad about following through on some of that procedural stuff unless you stay on top of them.

The product, so far, seems great, although due to some of those procedural issues, I don’t have any of the insight or controls for the powerwall yet(other than looking and seeing whether the green light is pulsing)

EDIT: note: not trying to sow discord or anything, just being honest about what it’s like right now. They seem to just be totally swamped and things slip through the cracks.

 

[Buckminster]

I haven't finished watching this yet but likely to be useful for some:

 

[Buckminster]

I haven't finished watching this yet but likely to be useful for some:

Dave uses P/E ratios of 30 and even 20. This is lower than AAPL right now which is laughable. No energy / network revenue as usual. I don't see a p/e ratio lower than 80 for many years. AMZN and NFLX level today.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Dang. Doesn’t look like a firmware upgrade will take care of that...

Well, THAT didn’t age well. (Regarding Track Mode 2)

 

[RobStark]

GM said they plan to build 1M EVs annually by 2025. To support that they are building out 30GWh of battery production capacity. That's 30 kWh per car. They also said their EVs will do 400 miles of EPA range. So options are:

1. GM is bending the laws of physics and will be able to produce 1M EVs per year with 400 miles of range with only 1/3 of what Tesla needs to achieve that (latest Model s with 100 kWh battery). Good for them, Nobel prize is secured.
2. GM is pulling the usual "electrified" stunt, so most of these 1M cars will be hybrids with 10-15 kWh batteries and some percentage will be EVs of which an even smaller percentage will have 100 kWh+ packs and can actually do 400 miles.
3. GM will be sourcing batteries from multiple sources, not just Ohio.
4. This was a marketing event with 10% steak, 90% sizzle and a lot of smoke over the all important details. Things like actual range, price, production dates and numbers of the 10 models they were talking about.

Lordstown cell factory will supply the Americas of which ~85% is for USA and ~10% for Canada.

That is ~250k vehicles per year.

Then there is ~750k vehicles per year in China which cells will be supplied locally.

 

[RobStark]

2025 to hit 30 GWh? Here's the problem:

Even if they hit their announced target, that's almost 6 frickin' years...they will be bankrupt before they get to full ramp!

Lordstown will not produce 0 GWh over the next five years.

Unless there is a very bad recession I doubt GM goes bankrupt.

And if it does I doubt it goes out of business. Just restructures again.

This means nothing to Model 3 and Model Y BTW.

Cybertruck and GM E pickups too different to be crossshoped by many and if reports are to be believed Tesla has a 4-5 years of back orders. So doesn't effect Cybertruck.

It may mean a few lost Model X sales to GM jumbo E SUVs but a fart in a hurricane in the larger landscape.

 

[JBRR]

Tesla wins approval to sell longer-range China-made Model 3

The vehicles will have a driving range of more than 372 miles before they need to be recharged, the ministry said in a statement, while the current China-made Model 3 has a standard driving range of more than 249 miles.

 

[Unpilot]

Has anyone one with the older MCU1 HW 2/2.5 suite bought the $2,500 MCU2 HW3.0 package?
I am thinking about buying.

When I ride in my brothers M3 the screen is so much smoother and his browser actually works.

 

[Cobbler]

Off-topic on AP rewrite:
Where could I find more info (YT videos, TMC- threads) on how training with video data instead of still frames, improves the overal performance of Autopilot/FSD? Especially the scenarios that could benefit from it?

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon took away money bags from his twitter handle. Profit not secured anymore! Must restore money bags!

Nah, it's fine. He put 'em there long enough for the "smart retail investors" to see the signal, but no so the stupid analysts and definitely not the Enrichment Commission.

Here's a really interesting vid from Steven where he's looking back on a Bear (some guy) and Bull (AJ - no, not him!!) debate from 2013, the deja-vu is astounding and Andrea is amazing

 

[Tslynk67]

Has anyone one with the older MCU1 HW 2/2.5 suite bought the $2,500 MCU2 HW3.0 package?
I am thinking about buying.

When I ride in my brothers M3 the screen is so much smoother and his browser actually works.

Have been nagging my local Service Centre for this, but not yet available in Europe

 

[JusRelax]

Has anyone one with the older MCU1 HW 2/2.5 suite bought the $2,500 MCU2 HW3.0 package?
I am thinking about buying.

When I ride in my brothers M3 the screen is so much smoother and his browser actually works.

My MCU1 AP2 Model X (FSD purchased) does not provide me with the option to purchase the MCU2 upgrade yet. I'm seriously considering the upgrade for the following reasons, in order of importance from highest to lowest:

1. Sentry mode
2. Caraoke (kids will love it)
3. Much smoother UI experience
4. Video stream
5. Better Games
6. Some futureproofing (MCU2 has 5.0Ghz Wifi compatibility)
7. Enhanced FSD visuals

That seems like a lot of value for the price to me. But then I consider how much $2500 can be worth if I put it into TSLA instead and that leaves me undecided haha.

 

[abasile]

I would think zipcode would be more appropriate than State as rates and weather can vary significantly across a state, mine of WA in particular.

Here in the SoCal mountains, for example, average cloud cover can vary significantly even within a given ZIP code. However, you usually can’t get a truly accurate estimate of solar production and costs without analyzing your specific home site anyway, so I think it makes sense for Tesla to keep things very, very general in the solar roof ordering page.

For those who want better estimates and spend a minute or two hunting around, Tesla does show a price per square foot of roofing and a price per watt of installed solar.

The goal of the solar roof product is to help bring solar to the masses, and I think Tesla has the right idea by keeping the initial order page very simple and general. It dovetails with Tesla’s clean, uncluttered product design and it tells me as an investor that Tesla is working to reach the largest market possible with each of their products.

 

[BornToFly]

Nah, it's fine. He put 'em there long enough for the "smart retail investors" to see the signal, but no so the stupid analysts and definitely not the Enrichment Commission.

Here's a really interesting vid from Steven where he's looking back on a Bear (some guy) and Bull (AJ - no, not him!!) debate from 2013, the deja-vu is astounding and Andrea is amazing

These look backs are awesome. Love seeing how wrong the Bears have been for 7 straight years. Andrea was brilliant.

 

[lklundin]

According to this Tweeter, who analyzes BEVs in China, Tesla's GF3 production in February was 2365 cars each with an average of 52.3 kWh of Panasonic batteries - and 1559 cars each with an average of 51.8 kWh of LG Chem batteries:
Moneyball on Twitter

Since GF3 reopened only on February 10, that's an average weekly production of 1308 cars.

 

[gerebgraus]

After-action Report: Fri, Mar 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $695.02
Volume: 12,663,559
Traded: $8,801,408,113.04 ($8.80 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.23%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Mirror, Mirror on Wall Street, who's the richest of them Cheats?"

View attachment 518937

Could you elaborate on your comment? Thanks.

 

[Fobble]

Dave uses P/E ratios of 30 and even 20. This is lower than AAPL right now which is laughable. No energy / network revenue as usual. I don't see a p/e ratio lower than 80 for many years. AMZN and NFLX level today.

Based on his paper napkin math, at 40x multiples, market cap is 240B by 2021. If 80x is the right multiples, then Tesla market cap is about 0.5 trillion by 2021. This math will make Tesla a trillion $ company around 2024-2025. TSLA floating: 185M shares. $1T/185M = $5400 SP by 2025, before including solar roof, power banks and other incomes. Cathie Woods' estimate is not BS after all

 

[dl003]

If Q2 was going to be tough, and I'm not saying it's going to be, because of the global fallout, then there'd be all the more reasons to get aggressive EOQ to secure SP inclusion. Who know what the shorts can do, how much drama they can wreck, if we have to wait 6 more months for it. Zach said it's going to be tough during periods of ramping up. I don't think Q1 is it as MYs are still just trickling out. Q2 will be if they mass produce it at the risk of 2 weeks self-quarantine.

 

[Fobble]

Now imagine what happens when these companies electrify their entire fleet and notice that not just EVs are cheaper to operate than ICEVs, but also that Teslas are cheaper to operate than non-Tesla EVs, because Teslas are the most efficient EVs, and will soon benefit from cheaper (Tesla) insurance too.

Smart taxi companies will start using Teslas exclusively, because it's the best for their bottom line.

Imagine .... If other auto manufacturers are not pulling their acts together, I can imagine 50-60% of all vehicles on the road in 10 years are Teslas (in developed countries at least). With limited Tesla model variation and color palette, it will be a boring word

 

[LJS22]

If Q2 was going to be tough, and I'm not saying it's going to be, because of the global fallout, then there'd be all the more reasons to get aggressive EOQ to secure SP inclusion. Who know what the shorts can do, how much drama they can wreck, if we have to wait 6 more months for it. Zach said it's going to be tough during periods of ramping up. I don't think Q1 is it as MYs are still just trickling out. Q2 will be if they mass produce it at the risk of 2 weeks self-quarantine.

As long as Tesla avoids self inflicted mistakes then they will be fine even if this year is a recession type year. The $8 billion in cash they are sitting on is a huge. The other automakers are hurting quite a bit right now.

There might be some buying opportunities along the way! However, I’m feeling good! So far Tesla is persevering through the virus scare and the election this year does not put Tesla in a make or break right or left.