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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Ok sorry, seems like things are ok..thankfully.

I sold about 30% of my tesla and bought some bitcoin a while back. That way I don't have to have a heart attack whenever the FUD gets really bad. I can just sell by GBTC / bitcoin and buy back tesla on the cheap. I previously had in my mind that I needed a certain number of shares to feel complete but I FINALLY was able to get over that and feel comfortable with less. Last year was a crazy year for me and I made a lot of mistakes investing in Tesla, mainly because I was stubborn and refused to realize TSLA might not rise as expected with success with the model 3 ramp. Since then I've begun to realize that things are out of our control and the timeline for price appreciation can be many many years and possibly decades. Most likely there will be times that TSLA is lower and higher in the future so there is no need to feel you're missing the boat if you're not fully invested. There will be opportunities and keeping some money out of Tesla will be a blessing if things don't go as expected. I hope you guys find a way to invest in Tesla in a balanced and healthy way. Good luck!


Be aware that bitcoin is fundamentally flawed due to the proof of work design.
Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index - Digiconomist

If they come up with a version as efficient as a visa transaction, great, go for it.

Over time, TSLA will rise with Tesla revenue. FUD can’t hold back the flood indefinitely - the CAGR builds pressure every quarter. Eventually the figures do the talking.
 
It's pretty weird. For some reason there seems to be more concern about demand and the SEC today than there was previously.

Demand is not an issue, VIN registrations should allay that concern.

The downside on and SEC decision also seems to be minimal. I don't see how any judge could possibly think a punitive response to an aspirational tweet would be fair.
Because SEC is not an issue. The market is trying to price in demand for the last a few weeks. The response to FED interest rate is a strong evidence to support that theory: low interest -> more demands for new cars. The 10 point rise to TSLA high demand claim the day before is another evidence.
 
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All right I did my due diligence and listened to him. The thing is Gali has always been, well, hyper. He rushes through things and doesn't consider details. When discussing the SEC thing, he didn't look at all the numbers (very few did though). I've seen other errors and omissions by him also. He's got spirit and a pulse for new tech. Many positives but is young and inexperienced.

With that said, his current video does not alarm me one bit. I was concerned that I was going to find a substantial bear thesis. But it was really a bunch of what ifs, due to all the commotion this quarter. Basically, echoing Morgan Stanley and other analysts and media pundits. Sure, there may be a major demand lull. We'll find out soon enough. But I feel, along with other bulls, that this is a storm that Tesla can weather, and that they will ride at the top of the wave as the large scale transition to EVs continue.

And then we have the garage theory. I don't lend too much credit to that. In the first place there are plenty more garages, and in the second, tech can solve that problem (basically amount of chargers and stations will continue to grow). The notion that a lack of garages is going to cause a demand cliff is just silly. There are way too many benefits for garages and other inconveniences to get in the way. It's like saying people are not going to buy a smartphone because they don't fit in your pocket like feature phones do. People will carry a smartphone in their hand if they have to, before they ever go back to feature phones.


I think Gali is overhyped (other than him being a cheerleader there is nothing that he says is truly additional). He had his day and now he is using his fame to become a “real” analyst by bringing in the “balanced” cynicism. Fine to be cynical and raise question but there is a responsibility when you have a stature and you command audience. Somewhat the same to be said for Fred.

I too have my doubts (for example I think SX needs refresh) but unlike Fred or Gali, I don’t create a panic just looking at the airpockets like the one we are in now and am not ready to deviate from the long term picture. The other thing is, I have a full time job that pays well and I don’t have to have a “balanced” opinion, and a need to share with others. I come here to get my input and to possibly add some (which is hard given the high standards / quality the group already carries).
 
I think Gali is overhyped (other than him being a cheerleader there is nothing that he says is truly additional). He had his day and now he is using his fame to become a “real” analyst by bringing in the “balanced” cynicism. Fine to be cynical and raise question but there is a responsibility when you have a stature and you command audience. Somewhat the same to be said for Fred.

I too have my doubts (for example I think SX needs refresh) but unlike Fred or Gali, I don’t create a panic just looking at the airpockets like the one we are in now and am not ready to deviate from the long term picture. The other thing is, I have a full time job that pays well and I don’t have to have a “balanced” opinion, and a need to share with others. I come here to get my input and to possibly add some (which is hard given the high standards / quality the group already carries).

I have seen the video. His whole theory hinges upon EV uptake rate. He thinks that Tesla cannot sell more than 7k Tesla’s per week. If you agree with that you should certainly sell the stock.
 
Or maybe, since he is not working for Tesla referrals he is working for someone else.
I suspect that Chanos or others may have a new strategy...turn them from inside.

Jokes aside, his analysis misses on many points. For example, people don’t talk about the lack of SR AWD variant. I think a majority of Midwest and northeast will benefit from it and this can be a good demand pull.

Also what price cut? When I placed my order in july 2018 (1st day res), the website already said that the SR will be available in 6-8 months. Then why is there such a noise. I rather call it that they wanted to cut costs to maintain margin on products they wanted to release. Now if the SR and other variant had too big a price gap, people would be more inclined to downswll than up sell.

TLDR: their initial projections were accurate, pricing reduction was to make higher end variants more attractive compared to the 35k variant. And cost cut was to rationalize lower ASP. Rather than demand, the rollout of SR is to preemptively strike at potential competitions.
 
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I suspect that Chanos or others may have a new strategy...turn them from inside.

Jokes aside, his analysis misses on many points. For example, people don’t talk about the lack of SR AWD variant. I think a majority of Midwest and northeast will benefit from it and this can be a good demand pull.

Also what price cut? When I placed my order in july 2018 (1st day res), the website already said that the SR will be available in 6-8 months. Then why is their such a noise. I rather call it that they wanted to cut costs to maintain margin on products they wanted to release. Now if the SR and other variant had too big a price gap, people would be more inclined to downswll that up sell.

TLDR: their initial projections were accurate, pricing reduction was to make higher end variants more attractive compared to the 35k variant. And cost cut was to rationalize lower ASP. Rather than demand, the rollout of SR is to preemptively strike at potential competitions.
I was thinking about this today, the SR will give Tesla a bad rap in the Northeast. I lose half of my battery capacity during the winter. That would give SR about 100-120 mile range on cold days.
 
I have seen the video. His whole theory hinges upon EV uptake rate. He thinks that Tesla cannot sell more than 7k Tesla’s per week. If you agree with that you should certainly sell the stock.

Having watched a good chunk of his content over the last two years, I think this was a strange video from Galileo.

He seems to suddenly be surprised that lots of car buyers don’t have a private garage and that this has caused a demand cliff edge.

Despite it being the raison d’etre of Tesla for a decade, he thinks the release of the $35k M3 is some sort of desperate move. He thinks the timing of the release in feb was suspect, despite it being long overdue and Musk saying upon the launch of the MR that “we can get this done now rather than Feb”.

He thinks there has been a demand cliff edge. Presumably given that there is no visible inventory buildup, he concludes that Tesla has been selling in q1 at negative gross margins as the only way to avoid a cash crunch from having many thousands of unsold model 3 inventory. With by the way the cash problem only because Tesla was too stubborn to raise more capital.

He concludes by saying he won’t sell a share. That he is invested essentially due to FOMO. But that what an amazing product pipeline. Stay tuned hyperchangers, it’s gonna be an exciting end of quarter!

I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he wouldn’t be thinking these things if the SEC case/short selling hadn’t driven the stock price down to where it is. He has in my view totally legitimate points on the elegance of corporate communications, Human Resources policies and the decision making chain.

But his concerns on margins and demand seem entirely hypothetical at this point. It’s a virtue to never be certain but a trap to let your emotional judgement cloud the bigger picture.

It’s a shame he’s not on this board, I’d love to see more of his thinking when slowed down from 1000 words a minute.
 
I suspect that Chanos or others may have a new strategy...turn them from inside.

Jokes aside, his analysis misses on many points. For example, people don’t talk about the lack of SR AWD variant. I think a majority of Midwest and northeast will benefit from it and this can be a good demand pull.

Also what price cut? When I placed my order in july 2018 (1st day res), the website already said that the SR will be available in 6-8 months. Then why is their such a noise. I rather call it that they wanted to cut costs to maintain margin on products they wanted to release. Now if the SR and other variant had too big a price gap, people would be more inclined to downswll that up sell.

TLDR: their initial projections were accurate, pricing reduction was to make higher end variants more attractive compared to the 35k variant. And cost cut was to rationalize lower ASP. Rather than demand, the rollout of SR is to preemptively strike at potential competitions.
Chanos is just another kind of activist hedge fund manager. Kinda like a dark version of Bill Ackman. He successfully cut off the life line for TSLA: right now it is close to impossible for TSLA to raise money with reasonable cost from the open market.
Wall Street is more or less a very corrupted structure and looks like a conspiracy theory in slow motion to kill/slow down TSLA.
The most recent garbage from moody is TSLA still rated as B3(junk), because 'missteps', how subjective can it be?
 
I have seen the video. His whole theory hinges upon EV uptake rate. He thinks that Tesla cannot sell more than 7k Tesla’s per week. If you agree with that you should certainly sell the stock.
I don’t agree.

A year old but look at the day cited in the article below. In 2017, 9.42million luxury car brand units were sold. Of which 2.5 million units were in China, which is big on EV adoption. So with even 5% of the luxury segment where (where BMW and Mercedes claim 25% share each) Tesla can claim nearly 0.5 million model 3s now and maybe 1million combined total when Y is launched. They will still remain behind the top three, Audi included, but within their projections.

————————
Global sales at nine high-end brands -- BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota Motor unit Lexus, Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo Cars, General Motors unit Cadillac, Nissan Motor unit Infiniti and Volkswagen Group members Audi and Porsche -- increased 5% on the year to 9.42 million vehicles last year. All but Lexus logged their highest-ever annual sales, while the Japanese brand scored its second-best year on record.

China made up 27% of overall sales, three percentage points more than in 2016. The Asian economic powerhouse led sales growth by far: The number of luxury autos sold in the country rose 17%, compared to a paltry 1% in the rest of the world. Put another way, China accounted for 360,000 of the 420,000 additional autos the nine makers sold last year.
 
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We have Cramer on video talking about how in the hedge fund world, a basic tool (says he does not know how you could be in the business if you don't use it) is to create a false narrative and get into the media. Call up the WSJ & CNBC (even named one of the "reporters" there) and get your false narrative out there.

Cramer diversifies from hedge fund world and... founds a financial media outlet, Street.com, where he, and Wahlman among others, pump out falsehoods.

Business Insider where Linette Lopez (among others) pounded out Tesla false narratives... created by Henry Blodget, a guy kicked out of the securities industry for violations.

Cramer laid out his playing the game where SEC violating market actors (he even explicitly said the tactics are illegal... but the SEC doesn't understand them so you do it anyway) are on one side, and media on the other.

Again all of this can be seen in a YouTube video (posted here many, many times).

Shocking that it appears the likes of Blodget, Wahlman, and Cramer simply moved from one side of the arrangement to play this game to the other?

Hard to imagine CNBC doesn't know about this.

Not a good look for CNBC or Cramer if this became widely known to the public. If it were really known, I don't see CNBC keeping him on air. That video is about 10,000X as incriminating as anything Elon has done.


There's a reason this video has been posted so many times here on TMC, get beyond the first somewhat esoteric minute or so of the video, and you have all of the following from Jim Cramer right there on video,


Jim Cramer late 2007:

"You can't foment, that's a violation, of, of, yeah, you can't create yourself an impression that a stock's down, but you do it anyway, because the SEC doesn't understand it... This is actually just blatantly illegal, but, when you have 6 days and you're company may be in doubt because you're down, I think it's really important to foment if I were one of these guys."

"What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."

"Who cares about the fundamentals? ...great thing about the market is it has nothing to do with the actual stocks. Now look, over maybe two weeks from now the buyers will come to their senses and realize that everything that they heard is a lie... it's just fiction and fiction and fiction, and, I think it's important for people to recognize that the way that the market really works is to have that nexus of hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down, then leak it to the press, um, and then get it on CNBC, that's also very important. And then you have a kind of a vicious cycle down. And it's a pretty good game..."

Aaron Task (interviewer): "Then do you get long...?"

Cramer: "Oh, yeah, because you drove it down. You certainly got to use the other side."


(there's more, I think still worth a listen)



Jim Cramer, yesterday on CNBC (a key vector he highlighted above for spreading falsehoods):

"Elon Musk has "made a fool" of the judge overseeing the settlement case between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Tesla CEO, CNBC's Jim Cramer contended Tuesday.

Musk has backed U.S. District Judge Alison Nathan of the Southern District of New York "into a corner," Cramer said on "Squawk on the Street." "This judge either has to get rid of him or say that the SEC is wrong."

"But Musk has made a fool of Judge Nathan," he added."



Sounds like Jim is trying to foment Judge Alison Nathan becoming misinformed into believing, 1) It's Musk vs. Judge Nathan, not Musk vs. the SEC (he emphatically says multiple times in this the video) 2) Elon Musk has made a fool of her, 3) the Judge has to get rid of Elon or say the SEC is wrong (which he vigorously presents as ridiculous). In the video Jim is fired up, and other comments from Jim: Musk is saying he is above the law, and Mush is saying that Judge Nathan is a joke (or a clown, don't remember which).

Cramer: Musk has 'made a fool' of the judge overseeing SEC settlement case

again, Jim Cramer 2007,

"What's important when you're in that hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."
 
I think Gali is overhyped (other than him being a cheerleader there is nothing that he says is truly additional). He had his day and now he is using his fame to become a “real” analyst by bringing in the “balanced” cynicism. Fine to be cynical and raise question but there is a responsibility when you have a stature and you command audience. Somewhat the same to be said for Fred.

I too have my doubts (for example I think SX needs refresh) but unlike Fred or Gali, I don’t create a panic just looking at the airpockets like the one we are in now and am not ready to deviate from the long term picture. The other thing is, I have a full time job that pays well and I don’t have to have a “balanced” opinion, and a need to share with others. I come here to get my input and to possibly add some (which is hard given the high standards / quality the group already carries).
they've both become drama magnifiers at times when the FUD waves are cresting. About the only thing Fred's site is good for is a quick scan of the day's headlines but one needs to come here & absorb information with a higher signal to noise ratio to have any chance of understanding the various and sundry things on the stormy Tesla seas these days. very grateful to have this community of smart people sharing their wisdom and insights but just think of the 99% of other retail investors that don't have this resource & it's not hard to understand why the stock's been driven down temporarily. bizarre to think things are at this level compared to a year or 4 ago given the number of cars now being produced, overseas shipment pipeline filling up, revenue being generated, market share taken, China GF growing like a weed, competitors slipping, positive macros, etc. but resolving uncertainties about Q1 deliveries and SEC silliness should firm things up & at some point the worm will turn. Just keep doing what you're doing Tesla--stick to the plan, execute the plan, and replicate the process & products
 
I was thinking about this today, the SR will give Tesla a bad rap in the Northeast. I lose half of my battery capacity during the winter. That would give SR about 100-120 mile range on cold days.
I live in NJ. On highways, the range normalizes once the car is running for some time and the battery is warmer. On the short stints, like in any ICE cars too, the range is low because the car gets back cold all the time.
 
This is no way explains how you made the statement above, that Tesla cash always dips significantly during the quarter.
Tesla pays down the ABL quite a bit at the start of a new quarter to minimize interest costs. It's just smart cash management. They discussed this in an earnings call, I think Q2. Anyway, they then build inventory the first two months as they focus on overseas production which takes a lot longer to get to customers. They finance much of that inventory with the ABL, but not all so this also drains cash. They deliver the vast majority of their cars in the final month of the quarter, reversing the inventory build and growing their cash balance.

I definitely know your math is way off somewhere, because you are claiming you expect end of q1 cash to be $2.5B and as I said earlier, I think you’ll find, you are off by around $1B.
I'll put you down for 3.5b, then. Still waiting for an estimate from Facts.
 
I miss Jon Stewart... Especially the time when he tore Jim Cramer a new one almost daily :D

(Need to be in US or US VPN to view - Skip the 30 seconds ad)

EDIT: First one is a must watch as Jon Stewart plays segment of the Cramer tape and roasts Cramer on live TV - Watch 2:00 mins into the video.

Exclusive - Jim Cramer Extended Interview Pt. 2 - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central



Jim Cramer Battle - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central

In Cramer We Trust - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central

CNBC Financial Advice - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Video Clip) | Comedy Central

Search for Cramer if you want more !!

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
 
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I think we win long term if Musk is forced into strict communication compliance, and gets a communication couch.

He needs to stop BS about how Tesla almost died last time around. I'm afraid what he's gonna say in couple of months about this quarter. And he especially can't do that after Feb CC call, where he said something along 'we're not even thinking about demand'. Inconsistencies like this abound in the past, more prevalently during the MX launch. This pattern seem to be: minimize problems while they're happening as Musk is an optimist and believe he can fix them, and then, blow issues out of proportion once they're fixed, as that presents team in a better light. This perspective could be exactly how musk sees situation at the time, but for outside observers, it seems inconsistent, and these are the roots of TSLAQ accusing him of lying.

We really would be better off if he can stop talking about 'almost died' situations, dragons he slayed, and how tough it was. Crucially, I feel Musk doesn't instinctively understand difference between 1. communicating to interested parties, and those he reaches very well, vs. 2. talking to media and disinterested crowd that doesn't care, one fed by soundbites. First group will have a sympathy for those stories, second is going to see it as drama and lying...

Musk would do way better if he were to be prepped, like a politician or a witness in a court, about messages that are a no-go. Until he develops this skill himself.

Since he expressed trust in judicial system, I hope judge can send this message in a way that is not damaging, yet is convincing to Musk himself.

There, I said it, I'd prefer Musk to receive some sort of a gag order. (I changed this last statement to be more dramatic, as Disagreements were accumulating too slowly :))

I believe in this club, I am grateful for all the work the community has done so far, honestly this is where I read the real news about Tesla, for the last 3 years.
But this comment getting so many dislikes and ‘funnies’ really saddens me. We grew weak, we don’t tolerate negative opinions, we don’t simply answer the questions, we really start becoming a cult . You will notice that a lot of the old Tesla members used to be here, answering wholeheartedly every question, are not here anymore . Many stayed true the mission I don’t disagree with that, but in order for us to be focused and sharp we need to have healthy conversations so we don’t become the cult that we are believed to be. For me the difference between cult and club is the ability to receive and learn from outside opinions . I love and believe in Tesla, but instead of reacting emotionally to each post, let’s get to work and contribute, the battle just started...