Probably a few fans of Tony Seba around these parts. Anyway his think tank has a new report out you can download here:
Energy Report — RethinkX. Free PDF download.
If you are interested in the energy side of Tesla's business he has some very compelling scenarios. I highly recommend the report but it is not short.
tl;dr
- SWB (Solar Wind and Batteries) are going to destroy all other energy generation/storage options.
- Thinks solar costs will decrease another 72% by 2030, Wind by 43% and batteries by 80% (Tesla is doing 50% reduction in the next ~3 years).
- Depending on the location (wind vs solar) there is an optimal (from cost perspective) amount of solar, wind and battery for 100% of electricity demand to cover the entire year.
- Thinks locations should plan to over build by 10-20% so there is EXCESS energy about 95% of the days of the year.
- Calls this excess energy 'super power'. For example with a 20% overbuild in (not-so sunny) New England, in addition to fulfilling 100% of current electricity demand every day, New England could also convert 100% of transportation and most commercial energy (non-electrical) to electric. Capex for this is buildout is ~110billion through 2030. Those are stunning numbers.
- Another example, if Texas (lots of sun and wind) overbuilds by 20% ($239 billion capex) then electricity will be about 1.3Cents/kWh.
- Their entire analysis ignores effects of: Existing Green energy sources, demand response, carbon taxes or subsidies, EVs as storage, distributed generation (eg rooftop solar), new technologies.