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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I believe there’s definitely more to this tweet than usual simply because it’s the first time I recall him actually naming the supplier/s causing issues.

Mostly true, with the rare exception of the time Elon called out Panasonic for 2170 production at Giga Nevada. I believe that shortcoming is what triggered "Bty Day" and Tesla's move into cell production.

Very strategic move. "Rare" may be equivalent to "Significant" when it comes to these uncommon occurences (Spoiler: I trust Elon's judgement)

Cheers!
 
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Today's volume is only cranked up to about 3 so far.

Still, that is better than the last couple of days at thirty minutes in.

How long before the market demonstrates once more how the volume knob can go all the way up to 11?

330px-Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven.jpg
 
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They both have their uses. I bought Mar 2023 1200 calls at $56.50 when we were in the sub-600 doldrums in May. So $2400 for a 20x on those, but at $3000, it's a 30x. I don't view that as likely, but it's possible.

Then yesterday, with the IV in the mid-50s on those Mar '23s, I put on a YOLO play in my retirement account, so it's relatively conservative. That was for Mar '23 1400/1700 spreads at $22.00, which is a 12x.

They're similar strikes to yours, but March vs. January, which is a significant difference in time/risk (the January ones will expire before Q4 earnings). Plus I only bought them yesterday, spurred by my conviction that it's finally about to break out.

There are still deals to be had because we know that 2022 is going to be markedly different than the Street thinks it is. Maybe not a disconnect so great as it was in 2019, but if your time horizon is beyond the 6-12 months that it is for Them, there are good opportunities.

I keep looking at calls, but can't pull the trigger with these premiums. The 2019 period was a great time for naked calls, but I don't see that kind of undervaluation again.

A 1400/1600 call spread when SP was in the $5xx range would probably yield mid 30x if SP hits $1600. What is the reason you chose a naked call rather than a spread?

I sell weekly shitcalls against the 700 & 800 strikes LEAPS to bring in some pocket-money...

Whenever I buy a chunk of TSLA, I promise myself to use that to cover some writes. But then TSLA goes up, and it seems like holding onto the stock is less work. :)
 
Today's volume is only cranked up to about 3 so far.

Still, that is better than the last couple of days at thirty minutes in.

How long before the market demonstrates once more how the volume knob can go all the way up to 11?
MM’s dropping big sell blocks to end that rally quickly……was there ever any real doubt how today would play out?
 
I keep looking at calls, but can't pull the trigger with these premiums. The 2019 period was a great time for naked calls, but I don't see that kind of undervaluation again.

A 1400/1600 call spread when SP was in the $5xx range would probably yield mid 30x if SP hits $1600. What is the reason you chose a naked call rather than a spread?



Whenever I buy a chunk of TSLA, I promise myself to use that to cover some writes. But then TSLA goes up, and it seems like holding onto the stock is less work. :)
2019 was a great time to buy call options on tsla, but premiums now are the lowest we've had in the last 12 months
 
I sell weekly against the 700 & 800 strikes LEAPS to bring in some pocket-money...
Ha, I hold weeklies until they expire just to see what happens :) Live and learn.

So today's spike has me thinking this is how they obtained some of my shares last runup. They let it rise a bit, folks do their day trading sells, but it never gets much lower than the days low, so you wait for a better price to buy them back. Meanwhile, they just got your shares so they can short it even more.

I'm currently a bit lower on shares than average because this seems to be happening again. Time to lock down or buy more I say. I did not sell on the upside down MMs. It's a trick!
 
With volume already at 6.6 million, we're seeing already half the volume that we've been seeing in a full day of trading recently...and the MMs haven't dropped the price much yet. Good sign so far, though I'm still taking the cautious view.

Well they have to eat that volume in order to keep SP flat, no? That's my general understanding of market making.

If these 6.6M shares traded(maybe 400k in real net transactions) needed to be sourced organically SP would obviously have gone up, correct?
 
Well they have to eat that volume in order to keep SP flat, no? That's my general understanding of market making.

If these 6.6M shares traded(maybe 400k in real net transactions) needed to be sourced organically SP would obviously have gone up, correct?

Yup, odds are they naked shorted heavily there to stop that rally and will be spoofing non stop to cap now
 

“The global supply chain was not built for this,” said Brian Bourke, chief growth officer at Seko Logistics in suburban Chicago. “They were built for seasonal surges of demand annually. When you have 12 peak seasons in every mode, things begin to break down.”

Edit: More.

Kleenex parent Kimberly-Clark said it “moved decisively” to raise prices in June and the early part of the third quarter to offset inflationary pressure, having previously announced that it would increase prices on a range of its consumer goods like baby care products and Scott toilet paper. In some cases, the company raised prices by double digits.

“So you mark up to your customer, and it becomes a trickle-down effect,” he said. “It really is a problem for everybody.”
 
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