Why do people watch the game instead of just checking the final score the next day? Or, up a level, the result of the championship?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
@Singuy @kbM3 currently there is actually a big backlog for the new iPhone Pros since they launched back in September (which stretched to as long as a 2 month wait at one stage depending on the SKU). there is a backlog every year for about 3 months until the new models reach demand\/supply equilibrium, then demand tapers off slowly throughout the year as the gift giving seasons pass, and as the next years new models get closer to release and it all starts again. (Backlog is worse this year as covid in China led to a supply shortfall at the exact same time as launch demand was at its peak.)
you cant compare demand for cars in the same manner as there is a much smaller percentage of buyers waiting for a yearly refresh cycle for the product, especially with Tesla which makes frequent hardware changes as they are ready, instead of saving them all up for an annual refresh. This is a good thing of course.
Mod:
1. I deleted 8 posts about some random game, as being off topic. I left one, because it had relevance to Tesla.
2. @Troy is a valued member of the TMC community, whether you agree with his estimates or methodology or not. I remind all of the rule that we don't attack each other. I don't want to have to make value judgements about whether particular terminology crosses a line, or not. Just keep all discourse civil please.
--ggr
1. I deleted 8 posts about some random game, as being off topic. I left one, because it had relevance to Tesla.
2. @Troy is a valued member of the TMC community, whether you agree with his estimates or methodology or not. I remind all of the rule that we don't attack each other. I don't want to have to make value judgements about whether particular terminology crosses a line, or not. Just keep all discourse civil please.
--ggr
Excellent detective work - so Troy’s theory still holds up for US inventory listings then (unless I missed another example of duplicates existing in the same location?)
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see a significant US inventory bump at the end of this quarter, considering many that are below the income limit are assuming that in 2 weeks the IRA will provide a cheaper purchase price than even the $3,750 discount + 10k free supercharging miles that Tesla is currently offering. I presume Tesla will not be promoting the exact IRA subsidy level until Jan 1st, at which point any inventory will be snapped up very fast.
Any accountants want to chime in on how these 10k free supercharger miles are accounted for at earnings? Obviously they will have minimal, almost zero, impact on cashflow in the quarter (only those supercharger miles actually used this quarter will decrease cashflow - as Tesla has to pay for that electricity provided which will cause a very tiny increase to services COGS presumably). But for earnings that 10k miles will be added as a liability…so has larger impacts.
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Perhaps your premise is flawed.
Is this from just looking directly at the Tesla inventory page?
You can find both of these VINs and others on the EV-CPO data scraper, I went to New Model 3s and filtered down to Massachusetts:
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
The headline says most of it.
Also announced they will work with another company on Hydrogen trucks in Thailand.
www.wsj.com
And this quote.
“Because the right answer is still unclear, we shouldn’t limit ourselves to just one option,” said Mr. Toyoda, who was visiting Thailand to mark the 60th anniversary of Toyota’s business in the country. Over the past few years, Mr. Toyoda said, he has tried to convey this point to industry stakeholders, including government officials—an effort he described as tiring at times."
Also announced they will work with another company on Hydrogen trucks in Thailand.
Toyota Chief Says ‘Silent Majority’ Has Doubts About Pursuing Only EVs
“Because the right answer is still unclear, we shouldn’t limit ourselves to just one option,” said Akio Toyoda, Tokyo Motor president.
www.wsj.com
And this quote.
“Because the right answer is still unclear, we shouldn’t limit ourselves to just one option,” said Mr. Toyoda, who was visiting Thailand to mark the 60th anniversary of Toyota’s business in the country. Over the past few years, Mr. Toyoda said, he has tried to convey this point to industry stakeholders, including government officials—an effort he described as tiring at times."
I'll just say this: I agree that in Elon&Twitter thread there is too much bickering, as it is unmoderated.
But I feel that here there is a blind spot on what is happening on Twitter everyday - last big news from an hour ago: no more links to other social media allowed on twitter -, and how many people are slowly turning against Elon for his decisions about Twitter. This will soon become a brand problem.
I can understand that the topic is still taboo here, but I encourage everyone to get on Twitter and see for yourself, at least.
Mod edit: Post to remain; however, no posts here to follow up. Use the E&T thread. And read the post's prior line as: "...encourage everyone to get on the E&T thread..."
But I feel that here there is a blind spot on what is happening on Twitter everyday - last big news from an hour ago: no more links to other social media allowed on twitter -, and how many people are slowly turning against Elon for his decisions about Twitter. This will soon become a brand problem.
I can understand that the topic is still taboo here, but I encourage everyone to get on Twitter and see for yourself, at least.
Mod edit: Post to remain; however, no posts here to follow up. Use the E&T thread. And read the post's prior line as: "...encourage everyone to get on the E&T thread..."
As I see things 50% compound growth applies to earnings and is a long term aspirational target.
50% compound growth of earnings may still be possible without 50% compound growth of vechicle deliveries.
But falling short on an aggressive target like this is not a disaster.
The context of what is being discussed is important, Troy's comments about missing the target can be incorrectly interpreted, in some cases deliberately misrepresented.
I can't see my missing 50% compound growth by a few percentage points should drop the stock price.
It makes sense not to list multiples of the exact same car at the same location. However, it also makes sense not to have multiples of the same car at the same location.
There are many delivery centers with no inventory. It seems like, if there were multiples of a trim, they would spread them out to improve the chance of a sale...
I'm not gutsy enough to put down a deposit to see if the URL VIN changes.
There are many delivery centers with no inventory. It seems like, if there were multiples of a trim, they would spread them out to improve the chance of a sale...
I'm not gutsy enough to put down a deposit to see if the URL VIN changes.
My view is that we have had far too much discussion about Elon and Twitter in this thread and I regret being dragged into posting a few days ago and I am very glad that the mods rightly deleted my post.
It is off-topic and nothing that we haven't read 100s of times before.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It was explicitly covering both production and delivery though in Zach and Elons statements- not earnings. And explicitly about 50% or greater this specific year not just a general average.
Troy earlier directly linked to the audio from the earnings calls making this clear- but here's an example from each quarterly call this year so far where they make this clear each time.
Elon Musk on Q1 2022 call said:
Production- not earnings.
Zach Kirkhorn on Q2 2022 call said:
Builds is production, not earnings.
Zach Kirkhorn on Q3 2022 call said:
Production and Delivery. Not earnings.
It's pretty likely Tesla misses these targets for the year. There's multiple entirely reasonable reasons that's so, but it's still a miss from guidance.
Sure- but that's not what they guided for.
Agreed. There's lots of entirely valid reasons to miss initial targets for a given year.
Well, in theory stocks are priced based on future performance, so if the price is set based on specific guidance of future performance, and they miss, the price dropping makes perfect sense.
But that also assumes a perfectly rational market, which is not a thing we actually have, so impacts are outsized and harder to predict.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I don't think the full guidance on the subsidy is available yet.
We do have this which came out like a week ago on assembly reporting but makes clear it's NOT final guidance, esp. on the critical minerals and such requirements.
We enter a fun limbo if it's not out by Jan 1, which there looks to be increasing chance of.
This interview by Rob Maurer is well worth a watch. Some great insights and a timely reminder of many of Elon’s traits that some investors seem to have lost faith in at the moment:
Elon Musk's Early Days & An Unfulfilled Vision | ‘The Founders’ Author Jimmy Soni Interview
Elon Musk's Early Days & An Unfulfilled Vision | ‘The Founders’ Author Jimmy Soni Interview
.... waiting !!
This thread on Tesla Energy is pretty shocking. I recommend reading the whole thread. It’s only a 3 minutes or so read.
TLDR; Wall Street is about to get hit by a freight train.
For those who don’t visit the link. The next lines is the bombshell.
/29... utilities trade... could be worth 25x or ~$100/share. Add in net cash at the end of 4Q'22 of ~$22B or ~$7/share and the implied value of "everything else" - namely, EV, Energy Ex: MP's, Insurance, FSD, Robo, Bot, Compact Car... is being valued by the mkt...
/30... at a staggering $43/share.
TLDR; Wall Street is about to get hit by a freight train.
For those who don’t visit the link. The next lines is the bombshell.
/29... utilities trade... could be worth 25x or ~$100/share. Add in net cash at the end of 4Q'22 of ~$22B or ~$7/share and the implied value of "everything else" - namely, EV, Energy Ex: MP's, Insurance, FSD, Robo, Bot, Compact Car... is being valued by the mkt...
/30... at a staggering $43/share.
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Tesla's 2022 targets that I mentioned in my message with a link to an audio file on Youtube are from the Q3 2022 Earnings Call on 19 Oct 2022 and not from the end of 2021. They are from Tesla's official youtube channel.
If you had clicked on those links, this is what you would have seen. I didn't pick targets Tesla stated at the end of 2021. I picked the latest targets they stated on 19 Oct 2022.
Tesla mentioned their 2022 delivery growth target in each earnings call this year. It was 50% on 26 Jan, 20 Apr, and 20 Jul but they changed it to "just under 50%" for deliveries on 19 Oct but kept the 50% target for production:
- On 26 Jan 2022 on the Q4 2021 Earnings Call they said, "We expect ... comfortably above 50% growth in 2022."
- On 20 Apr 2022 on the Q1 2022 Earnings Call they said, "50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year."
- On 20 Jul 2022 on the Q2 2022 Earnings Call they said, "We're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year."
- On 19 Oct 2022 on the Q3 2022 Earnings Call they said, "On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit".
People who follow Tesla closely will know that the famous "just under 50%" comment belongs to Zach Kirkhorn and is from the 19 Oct 2022 conference call. Therefore this is what analysts will remember. There have been many discussions about what "just under 50%" means.
Your message where you said "a bit disingenuous" because you thought the targets are from the end of 2021 is unfortunate.
I’m no expert in rental car industry practice but I’m certain someone here is. I had recently thought; could tesla have a standing order for vehicles from a fleet operation like hertz?
IE; could they arrange for a bulk EOY order at a prearranged price to clear last minute inventories? Seems like an easy way to solve for some quarterly lumpiness and get discount pricing for priority fleet operators who will be buying the inventory anyway.
Thanks, and pm me if this has been discussed; I will happily delete this post.
IE; could they arrange for a bulk EOY order at a prearranged price to clear last minute inventories? Seems like an easy way to solve for some quarterly lumpiness and get discount pricing for priority fleet operators who will be buying the inventory anyway.
Thanks, and pm me if this has been discussed; I will happily delete this post.
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