Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gene]

I did receive my invitation today. I am not sure if I'll take it or wait. hmmmm....... I'd rather have the all season tires and I had ordered the FSD way back at $7500. Oh hell, I'll probably just go for it since I did so well on TSLA over the years.

 

[dhanson865]

Auburn, California. My reservation #RN11274xxx.
Delivery estimate was Dec - Mar.

Your TMC profile links to Auburn, Alabama. No biggie, but you can change it if you want.

 

[JusRelax]

It looks like Full Self Driving is not included currently on the Cybertruck, and will be implemented on a future software update:

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733373839999164866

 

[Artful Dodger]

It looks like Full Self Driving is not included currently on the Cybertruck, and will be implemented on a future software update:

Yes, this is completely expected, and the same thing happened when vehicles were first shipped with HD4. Telsa has to have video data from the fleet to train the neural nets. Cybertruck has different cameras in different locations, on a different sized vehicles, so the NN needs to be retrained for its new host.

Tesla ships early vehicles with a version of FSD which runs in shadow mode, collecting data as the car is driven and sending it back to the mothership, where it is assessed, curated, and fed into the training system. The end result is a functional FSD build, but it does take time. Tesla's approach to autonomous driving requires data from the fleet. It was only about 4-6 weeks from the time HD4 started shipping until FSD beta v11.4.4 was delivered as an OTA.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Yes, this is completely expected, and the same thing happened when vehicles were first shipped with HD4. Telsa has to have video data from the fleet to train the neural nets. Cybertruck has different cameras in different locations, on a different sized vehicles, so the NN needs to be retrained for its new host.

Tesla ships early vehicles with a version of FSD which runs in shadow mode, collecting data as the car is driven and sending it back to the mothership, where it is assessed, curated, and fed into the training system. The end result is a functional FSD build, but it does take time. Tesla's approach to autonomous driving requires data from the fleet. It was only about 4-6 weeks from the time HD4 started shipping until FSD beta v11.4.4 was delivered as an OTA.

Cheers!

I am expecting CT to jump to V12 mid Jan.

 

[cliff harris]

and wait until you learn who Mr.Beast is...jokes aside, don't forget that views are always overcounted, and also that the spending power and conversion rate of a video dedicated to kids and one for adults.

This is not to say that a MKBHD video is not equivalent (or superior) than a Superbowl ad. I'm sure these Cybertruck videos will gain thousands of customers in the coming months.

True, but also worth noting that superbowl ads tend to be a one-off time limited thing. Sure, you can go look for them on youtube, but who does that?
A popular youtube video will be re-surfaced to people for years. You didn't have to be watching TV in one country, at one point, on one day. Its a FAR superior way to raise awareness of a product.
I'm sure some chunk of the superbowl ad cost is because old school executives in their 50s and 60s approve of spending on something that definitely worked 30 years ago.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am expecting CT to jump to V12 mid Jan.

I highly doubt that will happen by Jan because Cybertruck has HD4. Elon already told us that HD4 will lag HD3 cars by at least 6 months because Tesla needs to get HD3 'working super well' and wants to get FSD out to Europe and China:

Elon Musk on X: "HW4 software will lag HW3 by at least another six months, as our focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally." /X (Aug 27, 2023)​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695683422667317304

The HD3 fleet is currently on the v11.4.8 build of FSD while HD4 is on v11.4.4 so I'd expect HD3 to get v12 first, followed by HD4 about 6 months later. It takes time to collect the data. Data is King, and Training Compute is Queen.

I do expect that CT will get an OTA update to FSD v11.4.4 or a similar branch, and that will likely happen in Q1. Keep in mind though CT has much lower producion volume than Model 3/Y, so we'd naturally expect CT to take longer to accumlate the minimun number of fleet miles required to train the NN.

Cheers!

 

[scaesare]

It's not really about capability, it's about supporting standard plows.
The Lightning can't take standard plows because of where they put a part.

Indeed. It's also unknown how the cast chassis and "exoskeleton" design will affect attachments points for things like plows.

Also, truck have GAWR's that should not be exceeded, although many people do (significantly) for plows[1]... it would be nice to know what that is.


[1] - It's often the case for ICE trucks that the "biggest" truck model/engine has a lesser available plow capacity...the front axle limits are often closer to max with a big heavy diesel engine...

 

[AndrewZ]

Considering how I paid 105k for my 2017 S90D with HW 2.0 that just came with dumb cruise initially, I’d say the CT price isn’t bad for all that you get. Not to mention inflation.

$105k in the middle of 2017 is more like $130k today adjusted for inflation too

But Tesla's entire lineup has experienced legitimate deflation since 2017 and since the Cybertruck was announced in Nov 2019, every single vehicle and trim is cheaper today than it was then even before adjusting for inflation -- so the price decrease is more drastic in real terms.

Some will say "economies of scale", but Tesla was producing more Model S / X back in 2017 (25.7k S / X produced in 2Q17, 16k produced in 3Q23) than today and yet the S / X are still both cheaper today.

 

[Christine69420]

Anyone have any idea if the CT will take a SNOW plow attached to it?

You can buy the necessary fittings and with your welder hooked into the 240V of the CT mount them on the truck.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'm not an employee and got my email. The price is silly but I've been dreaming about this for so long. Now I wait to see when they can deliver.

View attachment 997817

Good morning. Does full self driving capability mean you will have FSD or just that it is capable of it?

Also. Is this the two motor or 3 motor.

Thanks.

 

[mongo]

Good morning. Does full self driving capability mean you will have FSD or just that it is capable of it?

Also. Is this the two motor or 3 motor.

Thanks.

All wheel drive is the dual motor.
All Tesla come with FSD hardware, the FSD entry means it has the software package (as FSD as it can be).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

All wheel drive is the dual motor.
All Tesla come with FSD hardware, the FSD entry means it has the software package (as FSD as it can be).

Thank you.

 

[NicoV]

Cybertruck wins sprint from F150.
Not unexpected, except for the little fact that the Cybertruck drives off-road, and the F150 on-road:

https://x.com/remouherek/status/1733465595616571624?s=61&t=dCmx85rrS4NKW9jYFM2Iug

I’m seeing more and more ‘Shut up and take my money‘ posts on social media (wrt Cybertruck).

 

[jerry33]

Indeed. It's also unknown how the cast chassis and "exoskeleton" design will affect attachments points for things like plows.

Also, truck have GAWR's that should not be exceeded, although many people do (significantly) for plows[1]... it would be nice to know what that is.


[1] - It's often the case for ICE trucks that the "biggest" truck model/engine has a lesser available plow capacity...the front axle limits are often closer to max with a big heavy diesel engine...

I just realized that this refers to a snow plow rather than an agricultural plow

 

[jerry33]

Good morning. Does full self driving capability mean you will have FSD or just that it is capable of it?

Also. Is this the two motor or 3 motor.

Thanks.

I read into it that you will not have to pay the $12,000 to activate it, which makes the $20K not that much of an extra charge.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Remo Uherek on X: "Cybertruck off-road vs. F150 on road" /X

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733465595616571624

 

[AudubonB]

I just realized that this refers to a snow plow rather than an agricultural plow

Yes, Virginia - we DO grow snow in Alaska.

To the extent - and early words notwithstanding, I don’t believe it’s a very large extent - that the CT truly does have an exoskeleton, mounting…and keeping…a plow on it could be a horrific challenge.

And I never have had a plow on my F350, or on my long-wheelbase F250s. First, the aforementioned diesel engine fouls up the available forward weight; second, the stop-go, super short-length, slow speed & low gear runs that plowing entails combine to be the very worst abuse one can do to a diesel powerplant. Of course, this paragraph has zero bearing on the CT.

BUT third, effective plowing is most sensitive to wheelbase - and overall! - length. A long-bed, crew-cab, long-hooded truck makes for plowing hell. I’ve used only my beater trucks, all of which have been gasoline-powered: single-cab F150s and Chebbies plus one Ram, and back in the Oligocene a wonderful post-War Jeep “wagon” that I learned on before getting a license. Since the diminutive CT is so short, it also would pass that criterion.

Nowadays, I clear most of my ~ 3/4 miles of roads with a combination of a big-bucket skidsteer and the backblade of my excavator (those diesels are up to that use).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I read into it that you will not have to pay the $12,000 to activate it, which makes the $20K not that much of an extra charge.

This is what I am asking also. The other response indicated that it is included.