Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[growler23]

How long until someone "officially" declares Model Y the best selling car on planet earth in 2023 (assuming that it was, of course)?
Who/what site or trusted journal needs to do that? Who will pick up the story and repeat it loudly?
It is already 9 days into the new year, and my patience wears thin.

 

[GrandEnigma]

How long until someone "officially" declares Model Y the best selling car on planet earth in 2023 (assuming that it was, of course)?
Who/what site or trusted journal needs to do that? Who will pick up the story and repeat it loudly?
It is already 9 days into the new year, and my patience wears thin.

I was wondering yesterday too as all I can find is 2022 numbers and anecdotes for 2023, but nothing formal with fun charts.

 

[2daMoon]

How long until someone "officially" declares Model Y the best selling car on planet earth in 2023 (assuming that it was, of course)?
Who/what site or trusted journal needs to do that? Who will pick up the story and repeat it loudly?
It is already 9 days into the new year, and my patience wears thin.

I saw on some video (Electrified or Tesla Daily) a mention that Business Insider has already made that claim.
As we all know and love BI's BS, perhaps this doesn't hold much water.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Pretty great price action. Oh wait my phone was upside down.

Oh wait, did I buy at the wrong time again???

The nonsense indicator is quite high (and someone is really, really "bad").

 

[GhostSkater]

Stories of them being bought in Brazil by BYD are already here.

I have a good friend that although know EVs are the future, was in the camp that hybrids will be dominant for a while here in Brazil, this end of the year travels changed his mind, he said he could find chargers even on route to the middle of nowhere where he goes to visit family

I might have posted this here before, my memory fails me, but on the 2300 km I traveled for these past holidays I did an EV simulated trip, I got one of the lowest range EVs that still can fast charge (BYD Dolphin base version), put my route on ABRP and stopped to check every charger or even if I could make it between chargers

Not only I could have made the trip, all chargers were working and with available plugs, so I could have done this trip "easily", I say that way because the base Dolphin barely can make the jump between chargers, meaning you need close to 100% chargers lasting 1h+, a bit of pain

BYD is set to make a huge dent in the market here

Just some fun stats for this simulate trip in a few models and comparing to Tesla, trip ignoring all the local driving would be 1630 km, the charge times excludes level 2 charging at the places I stayed for a day or more, I also checked and always there was some way to plug into the wall

BYD Dolphin - 3h8min of charging | 156 Wh/km
BYD Dolphin Plus - 1h47min of charging | 172 Wh/km
GWM Ora - 3h12 of charging | 174 Wh/km
GWM Ora GT - 1h59min of charging | 180 Wh/km
BYD Seal AWD - 58min of charging | 185 Wh/km
Volvo XC40 P8 AWD - 1h17min of charging | 213 Wh/km
Model 3 RWD - 48min of charging | 126 Wh/km
Model 3 LR - 19min of charging | 135 Wh/km

Model 3 added just as comparison, available only as grey import. Mind blowing how much more efficient it is, if you guys never saw the Dolphin and Ora in person, they are considerably smaller than a Model 3, and still uses a lot more energy

Now imagine whatever the Next Gen Vehicle will be here, arriving for a similar price to the Dolphin Plus and the GWM Ora GT, while being better all around, specially software, travelling faster and being more efficient and on top having the Tesla name on it? Put on top the Supercharger network being deployed and we have a winner

 

[aronth5]

I saw on some video (Electrified or Tesla Daily) a mention that Business Insider has already made that claim.
As we all know and love BI's BS, perhaps this doesn't hold much water.

Rob Mauer speaks about this at 7:00. Too soon until numbers can be confirmed. He is a good source.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Just invert your screen colors.

Or pull up the Nvidia ticker.

 

[ZeApelido]

I think Tesla’s next gen vehicle has been revealed:

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

How long until someone "officially" declares Model Y the best selling car on planet earth in 2023 (assuming that it was, of course)?
Who/what site or trusted journal needs to do that? Who will pick up the story and repeat it loudly?
It is already 9 days into the new year, and my patience wears thin.

have we hit lower support yet? Isn’t it just a bit over 230 and then positive news is allowed @Artful Dodger. This is sort of how it works, right?

 

[winfield100]

I think Tesla’s next gen vehicle has been revealed:

OT OT OT
It's "Electric"! to take it "Further"

 

[unk45]

I have a good friend that although know EVs are the future, was in the camp that hybrids will be dominant for a while here in Brazil, this end of the year travels changed his mind, he said he could find chargers even on route to the middle of nowhere where he goes to visit family

I might have posted this here before, my memory fails me, but on the 2300 km I traveled for these past holidays I did an EV simulated trip, I got one of the lowest range EVs that still can fast charge (BYD Dolphin base version), put my route on ABRP and stopped to check every charger or even if I could make it between chargers

Not only I could have made the trip, all chargers were working and with available plugs, so I could have done this trip "easily", I say that way because the base Dolphin barely can make the jump between chargers, meaning you need close to 100% chargers lasting 1h+, a bit of pain

BYD is set to make a huge dent in the market here

Just some fun stats for this simulate trip in a few models and comparing to Tesla, trip ignoring all the local driving would be 1630 km, the charge times excludes level 2 charging at the places I stayed for a day or more, I also checked and always there was some way to plug into the wall

BYD Dolphin - 3h8min of charging | 156 Wh/km
BYD Dolphin Plus - 1h47min of charging | 172 Wh/km
GWM Ora - 3h12 of charging | 174 Wh/km
GWM Ora GT - 1h59min of charging | 180 Wh/km
BYD Seal AWD - 58min of charging | 185 Wh/km
Volvo XC40 P8 AWD - 1h17min of charging | 213 Wh/km
Model 3 RWD - 48min of charging | 126 Wh/km
Model 3 LR - 19min of charging | 135 Wh/km

Model 3 added just as comparison, available only as grey import. Mind blowing how much more efficient it is, if you guys never saw the Dolphin and Ora in person, they are considerably smaller than a Model 3, and still uses a lot more energy

Now imagine whatever the Next Gen Vehicle will be here, arriving for a similar price to the Dolphin Plus and the GWM Ora GT, while being better all around, specially software, travelling faster and being more efficient and on top having the Tesla name on it? Put on top the Supercharger network being deployed and we have a winner

I am. Is more than two years with my XC40:Recharge.e in Brazil. Not once have I had trouble finding working chargers. there is serious need for a standard database of all chargers. Latest challenge Rio de Janeiro to Porto Alegre. Mostly have multiple options on that route today. Big difference from two years ago. Nonauestion, we’re Tesla to come with Superchargers the world would improve rapidly, as it always does. I can still hope!

 

[GhostSkater]

I am. Is more than two years with my XC40:Recharge.e in Brazil. Not once have I had trouble finding working chargers. there is serious need for a standard database of all chargers. Latest challenge Rio de Janeiro to Porto Alegre. Mostly have multiple options on that route today. Big difference from two years ago. Nonauestion, we’re Tesla to come with Superchargers the world would improve rapidly, as it always does. I can still hope!

Definitely, Plugshare has some, openchargemap has other, individual maps from charger brands even more, it's a big mess

In the past I spent a bit of time adding a few to openchargemap since none were showing in ABRP

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure if this was asked or answered already, sorry if a repeat.

My new son is about to get his 401K Roll-over check (Edit: to Schwab IRA) tomorrow and will be engaging TSLA with Grandpa! (Edit: Code for buying TSLA) So of course, he's suddenly reading the headlines and felt the need to caution me about the EPA story.

So today I asked Chat to tell me if any of the other BEVs out there got a more "realistic estimate" from the new (stop/go methods of measuring and calculating). It could only find info on the 2024 Ford Lightning and said that it had improved range from these New EPA Tests.

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

... if this is a delay tactic, it puts some shade on TSLA Earnings day - possibly to prevent this and maybe even cause this (which should get increasingly harder to do over time.)

So I told Rocky that the CPI will be out Thursday and could affect things either way, but that he should likely get in before TSLA ER on the 24th and ride out any attack (in case they do guide for 2.1M ). I assume there's other ways to do it, (like the moment he gets the check), or spread it out over 5-10 days without looking. He'll catch on I think, but they've got his ear for the moment.

Regarding the EPA here - What am I missing?
And is it possible that Tesla modifies (software or otherwise) for improvements to the new Tests?

ChatGPT4: (Who mixed up past stories with today's question) Thanks all for setting it straight.

"The 2024 EPA range test methods have had a positive impact on the Ford F-150 Lightning. The final EPA testing for the F-150 Lightning revealed an increase in range for several models. For instance, the F-150 Lightning XLT and Lariat trims with the extended range battery now have an EPA-estimated range of 320 miles, up from the previously estimated 300 miles. Similarly, the F-150 Lightning Platinum model's range has increased from 280 miles to 300 miles. "​

 

[mongo]

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

None of the above. The EPA test originally didn't define what mode the vehicle had to be in so manufacturers could set the default to the most economical, even if drivers wouldn't normally use that. Conversely, other reviews sites would use the worst options possible (like lowest regen). So the new methodology rewuires using the worst available settings or running best and worst and averaging the results.

And is it possible that Tesla modifies (software or otherwise) for improvements to the new Tests?

Yep, there is only hold mode now, no creep nor coast. (They had previously locked regen to max).

 

[Knightshade]

Not sure if this was asked or answered already, sorry if a repeat.

My new son is about to get his 401K Roll-over check tomorrow and will be engaging TSLA with Grandpa! So of course, he's suddenly reading the headlines and felt the need to caution me about the EPA story.

So today I asked Chat to tell me if any of the other BEVs out there got a more "realistic estimate" from the new (stop/go methods of measuring and calculating). It could only find info on the 2024 Ford Lightning and said that it had improved range from these New EPA Tests.

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

You left out "AI sucks and makes things up all the time"

Which is the real answer.

Both the 280->300 and 300->320 changes it attributes to the 2024 EPA changes for example actually happened almost 2 years ago and was the difference between their initial guess (fords) and the actual EPA test results using the old standard. That's why your quoted text says "up from the previously estimated 300 miles" for example.

Here's Ford announcing this in March 2022.

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/03/21/ford-f-150-lightning-epa-estimated-range.html

Google AI hallucinations sometime

 

[uscbucsfan]

Not sure if this was asked or answered already, sorry if a repeat.

My new son is about to get his 401K Roll-over check tomorrow and will be engaging TSLA with Grandpa! So of course, he's suddenly reading the headlines and felt the need to caution me about the EPA story.

So today I asked Chat to tell me if any of the other BEVs out there got a more "realistic estimate" from the new (stop/go methods of measuring and calculating). It could only find info on the 2024 Ford Lightning and said that it had improved range from these New EPA Tests.

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

... if this is a delay tactic, it puts some shade on TSLA Earnings day - possibly to prevent this and maybe even cause this (which should get increasingly harder to do over time.)

So I told Rocky that the CPI will be out Thursday and could affect things either way, but that he should likely get in before TSLA ER on the 24th and ride out any attack (in case they do guide for 2.1M ). I assume there's other ways to do it, (like the moment he gets the check), or spread it out over 5-10 days without looking. He'll catch on I think, but they've got his ear for the moment.

Regarding the EPA here - What am I missing?
And is it possible that Tesla modifies (software or otherwise) for improvements to the new Tests?

ChatGPT4:

"The 2024 EPA range test methods have had a positive impact on the Ford F-150 Lightning. The final EPA testing for the F-150 Lightning revealed an increase in range for several models. For instance, the F-150 Lightning XLT and Lariat trims with the extended range battery now have an EPA-estimated range of 320 miles, up from the previously estimated 300 miles. Similarly, the F-150 Lightning Platinum model's range has increased from 280 miles to 300 miles. "​

The EPA doesn't conduct testing, the manufacturers report it to them.

Tesla has always been very aggressive with their adjustment factor, which is why very often they do worse (percentage wise) in real world testing than others.

The Secret Adjustment Factor Tesla Uses to Get Its Big EPA Range Numbers

How Tesla puts distance between itself and the competition while still playing by the EPA's rules.

www.caranddriver.com

Basically what is in this article here is what Tesla and Audi have used to get higher EPA results and the EPA is now making manufacturers use the default drive mode instead of Chill that Tesla was using and I've read some things (I could be wrong) that they aren't able to use this adjustment the same way they were previously.

Regardless, others aren't being punished because they weren't trying to be overly aggressive in their estimates.

 

[Drumheller]

Not sure if this was asked or answered already, sorry if a repeat.

My new son is about to get his 401K Roll-over check tomorrow and will be engaging TSLA with Grandpa! So of course, he's suddenly reading the headlines and felt the need to caution me about the EPA story.

So today I asked Chat to tell me if any of the other BEVs out there got a more "realistic estimate" from the new (stop/go methods of measuring and calculating). It could only find info on the 2024 Ford Lightning and said that it had improved range from these New EPA Tests.

Folks, this looks crooked to me. I got 3 theories:

1. Someone is trying to prevent Tesla from selling 2.5M in 2024.
2. The EPA has created a test intended to hurt Tesla over EV competitors.
3. The EPA hasn't tested other vehicles as of yet. However...

... if this is a delay tactic, it puts some shade on TSLA Earnings day - possibly to prevent this and maybe even cause this (which should get increasingly harder to do over time.)

So I told Rocky that the CPI will be out Thursday and could affect things either way, but that he should likely get in before TSLA ER on the 24th and ride out any attack (in case they do guide for 2.1M ). I assume there's other ways to do it, (like the moment he gets the check), or spread it out over 5-10 days without looking. He'll catch on I think, but they've got his ear for the moment.

Regarding the EPA here - What am I missing?
And is it possible that Tesla modifies (software or otherwise) for improvements to the new Tests?

ChatGPT4:

"The 2024 EPA range test methods have had a positive impact on the Ford F-150 Lightning. The final EPA testing for the F-150 Lightning revealed an increase in range for several models. For instance, the F-150 Lightning XLT and Lariat trims with the extended range battery now have an EPA-estimated range of 320 miles, up from the previously estimated 300 miles. Similarly, the F-150 Lightning Platinum model's range has increased from 280 miles to 300 miles. "​

I don't have inside knowledge regarding the EPA and testing so can't say if there is bad behavior happening. I can say that I have never achieved epa range in either of the Teslas I have owned.

However, I will say this may be the most ridiculous forest for the trees situation I have seen in a long time. Your son is considering passing on investing in the most innovative company on Earth at this time because a range rating changed from 330 miles to 310? Seriously?

 

[MP3Mike]

ChatGPT4:

"The 2024 EPA range test methods have had a positive impact on the Ford F-150 Lightning. The final EPA testing for the F-150 Lightning revealed an increase in range for several models. For instance, the F-150 Lightning XLT and Lariat trims with the extended range battery now have an EPA-estimated range of 320 miles, up from the previously estimated 300 miles. Similarly, the F-150 Lightning Platinum model's range has increased from 280 miles to 300 miles. "

ChatGPT4, and you, are assuming that the only difference is the new EPA testing procedure. Ford may have changed battery chemistry or made efficiency improvements in the vehicle...

 

[GOVA]

What is really worrisome to me is that some seem to rely on ChatGPT to draw many conclusions instead of using their own brains.

 

[AudubonB]

Someone needs to research diligently - and distribute to all the fine, reputable news organizations* out there -

the variation between

1. the published EPA data regarding fuel economy on new ICE vehicles AND, much more importantly,
2. how those numbers change over time & distances driven, TOGETHER WITH
3. similar change for EVs’ range changes

By various tricks of hypermilers, I have been able to match and sometimes exceed rated MPGs on my most recent ICEs, which range from a VW Golf through an F350. BUT….never, ever, have I been able to maintain such performance over the tens and hundreds of thousands of miles I put on such vehicles.

As d*mned close to the entire world knows, if you use an internal combustion engine, you deteriorate it. An electric motor? The deterioration is, for all intents and purposes, nigh-zero. And as Tesla owners know, a properly engineered and properly maintained battery pack also has a time-deterioration function that is quite minimal compared to that of an internal combustion engine.

*Yes, that was a rare example of Audiesnark