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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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What I do not understand is why the Tesla

What I do not understand is why the Tesla
Board and/or Elon do not fight Shorty fire with fire. I don't know the exact mechanism, but isn't it possible to create a state of constant fear by occasionally announcing on short notice a special dividend or a small split (fractional so as not to require a vote to issue more shares?) to expose the players of such games? Inflict enough pain and uncertainty to make them take their manipulations and use of the SEC/Madoff exemptions elsewhere.

Companies that are obsessed with fighting shorts almost always have something to hide. I ‘m glad the Tesla board have better things to do with their time.
 
Yeah, if you took WholeMars's word for it, FSD has been basically perfect for a year now.

(I'm excited to see what other people experience over the coming weeks though.)

I'll wait for Dan O'Dowd videos testing FSD v12.2 🫣
If Dan starts using CGI in despair to show the car crashing into other stuff, then I'm convinced that Tesla has solved FSD 👌
 
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I sat in a BYD Seal recently. Cheap Audi at best. Difficult to believe someone could trade their Tesla for one unless you really see a car as a fungible tool like a potato peeler. Not a great analogy; a good potato peeler is so much better....

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I think we should be aware that we are not at all representative of the average car buyer in terms of wealth - most peoples´ decision to buy a car depends on whether they can afford it (my parents have only bought used cars until they retired) and it moves them from A to B, not whether it moves their heart. Here on the other hand, it is not unusual that someone would get a cyber truck in addition to whatever Tesla they have already just because it is cool.
 
An interesting piece in a Norwegian newspaper:

The headline is: Can anyone dethrone Tesla Model Y in 2024?

They then asked four motor journalists four questions:

1) Do you think Tesla Model Y will be pushed off the sales top in 2024?

They all answer no. But they believe it won't be as far ahead.

2) How much of the market will the Model Y take this year?

Their answers range from 13-20% - depending on interest campaigns and price reductions. (TMY got almost 20% in 2023).

3) Will the Model Y get an upgrade and a facelift some time this year? And what impact can that have?

Maybe. It depends. Model 3 Highland did not take off. Perhaps people prefer SUVs. It may also osborne the current Y.
Exixting Model Ys will still be popular as a preowned car.

4) For those looking for a smaller and cheaper EV in 2024: What should you look for?

Volvo EX30 has lot's of preorders. It's twin Zeekr X is interesting.

Source may be paywalled: Kan noen vippe Tesla Model Y ned fra salgstronen i år? Ekspertene er ikke i tvil.
 
Keep in mind the Autolline teardown export estimated that the Gen3 process saves 30% on the cost of building a car... That might only be 30% of GA, but it is still a fair chunk of money...

The Tesla China team did a god job on Highland, but so far they haven't produced a compact design that we know about.

It is likely that just having a smaller car with lower quality components isn't an easy path to a $25,000 car, however the BYD Seagull and some other entry level Chinese cars stack up well. MG (SAIC) is also producing good cars at very good prices.

It is likely that the unboxed construction method is better path to a $25,000 car, and in turn that requires, front and rear castings, a structural battery packs, probably 48V, definitely motors without rare-earths, and possibly an 800V architecture for the motors.

The "Holy Grail" for EVs has always been price parity with ICE especially at the entry level.

At least one Chinese car company is copying the unboxed process, others will follow, It is also a good path for an EV start-up, or for a country like India wanting to establish EV production. The problem for low volume production is sourcing the castings, we may see companies that eventually specialise in supplying completed castings to a number of different customers.

Better still, Gen3 production should be lower capex and a faster ramp, especially after it is dialled in at the first factory.

Give customers good entry level EVs at price parity with ICE, the vast majority are smart enough to do the maths on the fuel savings.

Lots of good work is also being done on improving batteries, and lowering costs... by many people, in many countries, couple improving batteries with Gen3 and the EV offerings become even more compelling...

IMO most people don't realise how fast this combination can take market share and drive down global demand for oil.
One quibble. The lower the price the greater the need for Higher, not lower, quality components. Specifically in high volume weight is the single greatest factor. The lower the weight the less costly are all powertrain components, including suspension, and the smaller the power required. Manufacturing efficiency becomes even more crucial with lesser price and weight.

Somehow when we think of those we also have trouble understand how reduced part count serves that same lighter weight/cheaper to build paradigm.

Whatever Gen3 brings we should understand how much advance is happening in Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck and, perhaps most importantly, the product we car mavens so blithely ignore, Megapack. Just look at the specifications:
The pack sizes are increasing, prices dropping , costs dropping, service revenues rising.
For all the carping about cars, this one is rapidly growing and will be larger than cars before 2030. These also can use much cheaper cells because reliability is vastly more important than is energy or power density. These install in ~90 days while the nearest gas-turbine peaked competitor takes ~two years.

Gen 3 is important. Clearly consumers have brought us TSLA. Important, yes, the major story today, no!
Today it is charging infrastructure (Tesla builds that, don’t they?/s), stationary storage and grid services.

Please cover vehicles, but realize ‘Motors’ is in our forum name, NOT Tesla’s! Somehow we forgot the name was changed.
 
I actually thought about this a lot.

The number I am aiming for is about one order of magnitude above where I am and I am 4/10th of the way there.

Now I can go through excruciatng pain and spend about 20 years to create a company that can get to that number. Or I can just sit back, put my assets in a 5% interest asset and coast. I'd get to the same place in 20 years.

And this for me, is the argument for diversification cation. Obviously you can't get to that number if you use diversification as you start out. Cause $1 at 5% interest annualy just give you 5 cents.

So I think personally diversification should be taken seriously for two situations. 1, you no long need to try hard. 2. You have no natural talent/advantages when it comes to investing.

Natural talent/advantage in investing for me exist in two forms. 1. You are very good at stock picking to a point where you have a decade of experience beating the index and the pros. This usually shows up as a 20% yoy growth from the talented ppl I've seen. And this is a catch 22. As how can you know you are good without trying in for a decade.

The other one is you are very good at raising money and you can earn a lot from just a one point incrrase from the money you've raised.

In the situation where you have no natural talent in investing and you are just starting out. The reason for diversification is because even if you put 40hr/ week into investing. Yhe return on capital for someone starting out with just 10k, is less than if you just take up a second job and earn minimum wage. It only ever start to make sense when you have 500k to invest, cause now 5% of 500k is a significant amount compared to your wages.

In a way, you can see diversification as going all in in your own domain of expertise. Investing in a stock called "your career. But what I find usually is that ppl often have no talent in both.

How do you determine talent? Simply put, you can do something that a 3 year veteran in the field can do from just 1 months of learning. I've personally seen it happrn several times in the many hobbies I have and each time I'd let the young ppl know they have talent. I am not sure they believe me though.

I personally am a product of focus. But what I tell ppl usually is to diversify and forget about it. Cause this suggestion applies to 95% of ppl and I don't know most ppl enough to know they are partof the 5%. And tgis way also avoid a lot of legal landmines.
The other scenario, which probably applies to a lot of posters here who bought TSLA pre-2020, you invest $100k, you "get lucky" and the stock you bought goes ballistic and you have $2m capital to work with

I think then there's also a very good case for selling very, very OTM calls and puts. Making a 5% annual return is pretty easy with TSLA option, 10% I would say I can do in my sleep...
 
Elon is in Poland:
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And for those who say Omar is just a cheerleader

I recently drove from CT to Savannah GA (on my way to FL) a few weeks ago during the torrential rain that hit the US eastern seaboard.
I was on FSD most of the way and my speed was limited at times during heavy downpours.
This was a good thing and the safe thing for FSD to do. In about 1 hour of heavy rain, I saw two separate single car accidents apparently from cars travelling too fast for the road conditions.