Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Back in 2018, Musk announced at an earnings call that Tesla would be closing all galleries and moving to a strictly online sales model. It felt impulsive and abrupt. Musk would reverse that decision within a few weeks. This feels the same way to me. I don’t get how you blanket fire an entire group if you plan to continue to provide the product they worked on.

I get a RIF in order to focus on my other priorities. 100% termination makes no sense if Tesla plans to continue supercharging unless that functionality can be transferred to another group. It’s likely that whatever supercharger buildout will remain will be done by the service organization. They already maintain superchargers.

 

[Usain]

Tesla does need a new mission statement. That is true.

 

[GatorMeat]

My speculation is that SC stations were being built at locations not very well thought out, resulting in poor utilization which triggered Elon's termination code. We recently got a brand new 16 stall station located in a dead mall's parking lot (shady part of town). I have been monitoring the place and the utilization is very poor while an 8 stall station 5 miles down is packed. Local FB group has commentors stating the station is a dumb location and warned others to be careful, not to get robbed while charging. So when there's too much expansion too fast, we end up getting these duds that cost the company millions of dollars. So I think he will get his new team or whoever is left to fully study the data and expand where there's a need and pick new locations more carefully.

Mobile, AL?
There are some very poor and sketchy locations in the south. I also think that word got out that Tesla pays to lease spaces and I don't think they should ever pay for space. Maybe it's better to have more co-branding and more Level 2. It cannot be profitable for Tesla to continue to shoulder the EV charging build-out.
I also feel F and GM stabbed them in the back after getting to free-load on the network by starting the 'consumers want hybrids and PHEVs not EVs"
We don't know the ROI on SuC, but Tesla has much better places to invest now that free cash flow is negative.

 

[SPadival]

My speculation is that SC stations were being built at locations not very well thought out, resulting in poor utilization which triggered Elon's termination code. We recently got a brand new 16 stall station located in a dead mall's parking lot (shady part of town). I have been monitoring the place and the utilization is very poor while an 8 stall station 5 miles down is packed. Local FB group has commentors stating the station is a dumb location and warned others to be careful, not to get robbed while charging. So when there's too much expansion too fast, we end up getting these duds that cost the company millions of dollars. So I think he will get his new team or whoever is left to fully study the data and expand where there's a need and pick new locations more carefully.

Yes. We are spoilt for choice on where to supercharge on the Melbourne-Sydney route. Some of the SCs will be under-utilised because unless you manually add them as a stop, the nav will simply skip them (for example, Exeter SC) by default because the nav is optimised to reach a lower charging % that will deliver faster charging speed under the charging curve. Also, most of the SCs only ever get full during the long weekend. So a better solution would be to setup temporary SCs during long weekend or expand existing SCs for peak demand. Seems they are opting for the latter.

Also, Rebecca Tinucci, ex-SC head, was previously reporting to Drew Baglino and then started reporting directly to Elon once Drew left. So it looks like Elon is peeling off one layer at a time and isn't liking what he sees ..

 

[GOVA]

I can verify that at least one person subscribed to FSD after getting the free trial.

Amen. I know one too.
Reasoning: Less stress, pays for itself vs insurance rate from Tesla before FSD, when I die I can say I drove EV and EV with FSD. How many b4 me can say that?

 

[sunwarriors]

What are your evidence for this, as in cleaning house firing 75% of twitter employees actually made financials worst. And how did you even get financial information from a private company?

I think the only financial "facts" about Twitter I've seen is:
1) He paid about $44 billion for it.
2) Lenders who loaned him $$ has marked down their position to about $10 or $15 billion.
3) The options granted to new employees is worth less than $44 billion. I forget exactly, but it was more to the tune of like $18 billion or something from what I remember.

It's early days of course and we'll have to see if Twitter ever surpasses what he paid for it. As it's private, we can't see, like you say what the exact advertiser/financial/revenue numbers are. Most suspect it's worst simply due to him telling people to f* themselves and he doesn't need their $$ anyways.

My guess is that the whole forced paid check mark thing didn't work since Musk has had to backtrack on that strategy from famous/well known people.


As for Tesla doing this, I think it's all about cost cutting, not caring/liking the leaders of those teams and wanting a clean slate, and using a much much smaller team to deal with this since as I mentioned before, it's not a Tesla differentiator factor anymore if everyone else can use it.

 

[Tony73]

My speculation is that SC stations were being built at locations not very well thought out, resulting in poor utilization which triggered Elon's termination code. We recently got a brand new 16 stall station located in a dead mall's parking lot (shady part of town). I have been monitoring the place and the utilization is very poor while an 8 stall station 5 miles down is packed. Local FB group has commentors stating the station is a dumb location and warned others to be careful, not to get robbed while charging. So when there's too much expansion too fast, we end up getting these duds that cost the company millions of dollars. So I think he will get his new team or whoever is left to fully study the data and expand where there's a need and pick new locations more carefully.

If you think about it, it might make more sense for employees at the nearest service center to pick the sites since they are local.

 

[sunwarriors]

Ford and GM need to pull their weight and fund the SuC buildout. They both have been out there seeding the 'EV is dead, consumers want hybrid' narrative. Since new SuC benefit all, they all need to pony up.
Also, 72kW chargers would be great for restuarants, grocery stores, malls, and other spots where you don't have to rush back to move your car bc SuC are too fast.

Even though this is/should be true, the bulk (I'd guess 99%?) of Tesla supercharger users are Tesla owners. For any maintenance/fund carveout/buildout, I'd assume Ford/GM/anyone else wouldn't be willing to spend as much since it affects far less of their customer.

 

[sunwarriors]

You're almost right. There's no need for those 500 people in the SC team. Eventually, Tesla will hire new people to replace those that were fired. And they will have entry level salaries. I've run across managers like Elon before. They demand x percent layoffs and when a unit head complains, the whole unit is disbanded and the responsibilities are given to some other unit.

I think this was why it's done as well. My question is why anyone top talent will bother working for Tesla vs. a top AI company or any company when they are not in control or if their lead gets canned, you are fired as well? I can only assume (obviously) everyone is currently on notice who's going to get cut next. I can see more heads rolling on anything not AI/RT related.

I remember that hotshot hacker who said he can turn Twitter around in 3 months and lasted less than a month in his role.

 

[wipster]

Tesla's mission statement is "accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy". The company's vision statement is "to create the most compelling car company of the 21st century by driving the world's transition to electric vehicles".

It's right there, in the middle of sust 'AI' nable...

 

[Tronguy]

Yeah, it's a little different when you are talking about changing the weights of neural nets rather than flipping some bits in machine code. What I was saying probably doesn't fit the old-school definition of self-modifying code. But the concept is the same in that you are using the system to directly alter the behavior of the system.

I get it: The weights of a NN are the code, by and large. But an NN accepts a ridiculous number of inputs then, based upon those inputs, generates outputs that identify objects, or decide how to drive the car, or what-all.

But making one of those inputs a variable that determines the aggressiveness (or not) of a particular response; well, if the outputs do what one wants with variable doing its thing, then, it may as well be procedural code.

I guess the point of NNs is like a whole buncha things one runs into in engineering: Certain problem solving methods are much more effective for certain classes of problems than other problem solving methods. There are places where doing signal identification with ARMA based systems are faster than using MA (that is, FFT) methods; when doing control loops, sometimes non-linear control can be faster, or not, than linear control; and so forth. One picks the solver that does the job as needed, either faster, or with fewer resources, or whatever other cost function one has in mind.

 

[Singuy]

Mobile, AL?
There are some very poor and sketchy locations in the south. I also think that word got out that Tesla pays to lease spaces and I don't think they should ever pay for space. Maybe it's better to have more co-branding and more Level 2. It cannot be profitable for Tesla to continue to shoulder the EV charging build-out.
I also feel F and GM stabbed them in the back after getting to free-load on the network by starting the 'consumers want hybrids and PHEVs not EVs"
We don't know the ROI on SuC, but Tesla has much better places to invest now that free cash flow is negative.

No, FL. But kind of proves my point that the type of locations I wrote as an anecdote relates to other people's anecdote as well.

 

[CitizenKane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785224907560743390

 

[GatorMeat]

No, FL. But kind of proves my point that the type of locations I wrote as an anecdote relates to other people's anecdote as well.

My sister sold her X and went back to Lexus bc she didn't feel comfortable at some IN SuC she had to use (and the X felt like it was gonna rattle apart). I know now to pre-screen stops I haven't been yet.

 

[2daMoon]

There seem to be a few people who like to imagine what motivates Elon to make these drastic cuts to jobs at Tesla. Many ideas about this have been batted around, some of which may or may not be 'the' reason. Most get close, but miss the mark when anyone thinks there is an emotional side to this on Elon's part. There isn't.

To me, the "reason" is Elon knows that "you get what you inspect, not what you expect." Read that again and think about how this might apply.

In a general sense, people who do outstanding work, do so because they are in an environment where it is all on them to perform to help the project survive. As they achieve goals and the company grows, more people are hired. The folks who were the shakers and movers often get promoted and find themselves managing others now expected to do the same. Others, who these managers expect will be driven the way they had been to innovate. To feel that pressure that drives them to achieve.

Eventually, such an arrangement becomes based on trust more than inspection to determine if things are going as well as they can be. This doesn't mean folks aren't working hard, but it might mean they aren't working smart.

Elon has what is a unique ability to inspect a process with an unwavering perspective based on maximizing performance. A perspective which is unbiased by other measures like time in the job, personal friendship, or, trust that everything is fine. He can see when that certain something is missing, whether to burn-out, comfort, relationships, or the myriad other factors that can play into such degradation in performance over time.

When on inspection he determines this dynamic his most productive people have displayed has now changed over their time in the job, he knows the only way to make it right is to bring in new blood. People who are hungry and in the right place in their lives to take on an insurmountable challenge and run with it.

It seems just as likely that anyone who has worked around Elon will understand this, and won't take it too hard when their time in the sun has passed. It was an incredible experience where they were able to accomplish amazing things, and were rewarded for it in many ways. They take this with them to their next project, and with any luck will rekindle that fire and do amazing things again, with a change of venue and of perspective.

You will always get what you inspect more often than you will get what you expect.

 

[wtlloyd]

Went straight from 12.3.4 to 12.3.6 tonight.

 

[MC3OZ]

If you think about it, it might make more sense for employees at the nearest service center to pick the sites since they are local.

Maintenance / expansion on existing popular sites might also make more sense.

I am wondering what the 500 members of the charging team did, and where they were located.

It may be that Tesla is moving to a more geographically based decentralised model for sales, service and charging.

Removing entire departments suggests to me that the chain-of-command is changing, and those roles will be rolled into other departments.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Maintenance / expansion on existing popular sites might also make more sense.

I am wondering what the 500 members of the charging team did, and where they were located.

It may be that Tesla is moving to a more geographically based decentralised model for sales, service and charging.

Removing entire departments suggests to me that the chain-of-command is changing, and those roles will be rolled into other departments.

Not sure of the validity but there are already reports of installation contracters who have no one to contact, no phones getting answered, stop work orders etc. I think it’s going to be an interesting ride.

 

[Papafox]

My sister sold her X and went back to Lexus bc she didn't feel comfortable at some IN SuC she had to use (and the X felt like it was gonna rattle apart). I know now to pre-screen stops I haven't been yet.

My brother and his wife absolutely adore the Model X they bought just before the end of Q1. They comment on the build quality and how quiet it is.

 

[alexxs88]

This is false. On 3 occasions my Tesla (MX 2016 with Autopilot and 2021 with FSD) took evasive actions that prevented either broadside collision or sideswiping.

English is not my native language, so excuse me if I wasn't clear. That's exactly what I was saying: conventional OEM L2 systems are good at preventing or reducing the severity of crashes, but they can't take evasive action like Tesla's can.

Widespread deployment is unnecessary to improve fundamentals. Tesla will likely prove the system, much like Waymo does, in a geofenced area with remote drivers that can intervene when necessary. The difference is, Tesla's system costs a fraction of Waymo's ~$150k pricetag per vehicle. Tesla's solution is then easily scalable, whereas Waymo is not.

I thought about this. I think one angle about this approach that Elon wouldn't like is that it would invite immediate comparison to waymo and where they were half a decade ago.

I also don't think a limited deployment would even move the needle on financials. It would help them streamline operations. But a big advantage that was touted about Tesla's approach is that it can ramp up much quicker than waymo because it uses a more generic approach to driving. So after the first limited deployment there'll be big pressure to scale quickly.