2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
His TAAS forecasts were anchored on 2020 approval, which did happen, and complete takeover by 2030 with TAAS providing 95% of all passenger miles, the US car fleet down to 44m cars, etc.
Those two dates are in the "ReThinking Transportation" summary, so no need to download the full report. He gives more forecasts in his talks. Here he shows a series of graphs. The TAAS forecasts for 2024:
He goes on to call an oil demand peak in 2020 at 100m bpd and a permanent price collapse to $25/bbl by 2021-22.
- 15 cent/mile cost
- 1 trillion passenger miles
- US fleet down from ~250m to <200m vehicles
- Zero new US car sales to consumers
This could be balanced with other things he got wrong. i.e.: Battery manufacturing costs going down quite a bit faster than Tony expected them to.
As long as Tony Seba is trying to "be less wrong" it would seem foolish to toss out any of the work he has done on the effect of technological disruption and how entrenched markets have been displaced, from a historical perspective.
The thing to focus on is whether or not the trend he has shared is supported over time.
Once all the dust settles, calling precisely how and when it happens won't make as much difference as the fact that the disruption happened.