Just trying to get the ball rolling, has anyone done any estimates for Tesla revenue and loss? I'm expecting around 2,700 model S deliveries in Q4 and around 270 million in Model S revenue. anyone one have a detailed analysis? Love to hear it!
I think they'll have been lucky to have hit the bottom end of the range for Q4 which was ~2,500 units. ~2,750 for 2012.
I am less concerned with that than I am with the cancellation issue. I've been advocating a low cancellation rate hypothesis, but it easily could be higher than I assumed.
This guy finalized on 12/16 for a 40kWh with standard suspension and has a May/June delivery window -
Finalized our 40kw/std suspension today. May-June delivery estimate. Honestly, they could deliver our car a couple months later and we'd be OK with it.
He doesn't say when he reserved, but there are a lot of reports right now of brand new customers finalizing almost immediately, and he calls himself a prospective customer a week ago.
The early part of his date range would be about the time that Tesla is producing it's 10,000th car, while the at the end of the range they will be somewhere nearer to 14,000. So yet again we are faced with data that potentially indicates a fairly high cancellation rate among the original regular production list.
Of course it's a non issue if the reservation rate gets back up, but if it's true then it means that the current reservation rate is already an indicator of production just a few months out. I much prefer an outlook where Tesla has a nice backlog to tide itself through to the point where Model X production begins, but that hypothesis is based mostly on (hopeful) conjecture, while the high cancellation alternative has a growing number of reports which support it.
Data wins. Always.
So if I had to make a bet right now on the conference call, I'd bet on a low end report on 2012 deliveries that came close to, or just surpassed their minimum goal based on the September guidance. Production rate is excellent, quality problems diminishing, supplier issues being resolved, productivity increasing. ~$265 million in revenue for Q4, higher than anticipated costs with the production ramp up. Losses were ugly, but bleeding stopped by mid December.
Might well have dipped a couple of fingers into the piggy bank raised during the October secondary. Gonna guess they have ~$180 million in cash left. Possible unpleasantness with their auditors. No going concern issues, just general "whoa that was close" stuff.
A high cancellation rate (WAG, 50%+) amongst the 11,000 or so U.S. customers who had reserved before the Q3 results. ~7,000ish new U.S. reservations (going from memory, so don't shoot me for not looking it up) in Q4, with awards and the stores being the big drivers of sales.
Reservation list will be knocked down to a typical 2 month wait by the end of Q1 2013. Production rate will be adjusted to new reservations at that point. New store openings will drive additional sales growth, but Tesla will stick to their 20,000 unit guidance for 2013.
No reason for giddy optimism, no indication of impending doom. Nice, middle of the road, status quo report. Possibility of profitability by Q4 of 2013, dependent on increasing gross margins to desired levels, with store openings being key to maintaining sales momentum. Shorts bet that reservation rate will collapse, while the rest of us bet it stay's steady or goes up as more stores open. Stock settles into a trading range between $30-$40.
If cancellation rate turns out to have been low then I'll consider being giddy again