TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SebastianR]

But then, new people should be waiting for the next dellveries, right?

One possibility is that the cars are now being delivered faster,so fewer people are waiting for vin or delivery.
Or it could just be that new people don't report ti anymore, since there is no waiting for configuring.

Really folks, I think we all need to calm down on this "net order" business. We are collectively being hysterical about this where we have easy precedent for how this will unfold:

In 2012 the Model S was planned by the (as usual "overly optimistic and crazy wild ambitious") Tesla folks to be delivered at a rate of 12.000 / year for the years to come. (I'm happy to dig out the old investor relations slides on this). People called it optimistic and crazy because Tesla in 2011 had some 3000 reservations for the Model S. They planned to introduce the Model X to maintain demand at about 12k cars / year until the Model 3 (Model E) is coming out.

Last year Model S/X were at 100k cars (and at significantly higher average selling prices).

Today, we have roughly 400.000 reservations (compare to 3000). With a planned capacity of 500.000 cars (compare to 12.000). If history is a guide, Tesla will be production constraint for years to come (now I sound like @ValueAnalyst). What's more: the factory is humming and from the experts (Munro, the German analysts), to the car guys (see WSJ test drive of the Model 3) to the actual customers, everybody loves the car.

Even if I put on my most pessimistic and grumpy face, I can't see any problem here.

So can we stop the nonsense debate about demand? Thanks!

 

[SPadival]

Sebastian, good first post on the 1000th page.

(Phew.. clicked on show ignored & found none above yours)

 

[Tslynk67]

This echoes what I just wrote on Twitter (back fighting the FUD again today!!):

I agree the reservations now mean nothing, they will decrease as they turn into orders. Not sure why you wouldn't trust @Tesla but let's wait and see. Fact remains that the car had >400k reservations, and that the new owners appear very happy and reviews are phenomenal.

David Baird on Twitter

I expect a good day today as the excellent WSJ M3P review will have had time to percolate into people's consciousness. I think yesterday would have been green too, except for some poor macro in the final 90 minutes.

Hey-ho, another day in Tesla-land!

 

[vinvin218]

Finally find my profile picture...

cool profile pic !

 

[Tslynk67]

Well now that's weird - the M3P WSJ review is no longer there?

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The document you requested either no longer exists or is not currently available.

You may use the "Back" button in your browser to return to the previous page or click Home to return to the WSJ.com home page.

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Edit - checked the link from their "Most Popular" section, same error. Maybe the chiefs finally read it and realised it was too positive towards Tesla :-D

 

[Ellec]

Well now that's weird - the M3P WSJ review is no longer there?

PAGE UNAVAILABLE

The document you requested either no longer exists or is not currently available.

You may use the "Back" button in your browser to return to the previous page or click Home to return to the WSJ.com home page.

To report this problem, contact Customer Support at [email protected]

First Test Drive of the Tesla Model 3 Performance: A Thrilling, Modern Marvel

 

[cheshire cat]

Well, it's no use preaching to the converted and you can't argue with an idiot, Is it my imagination or is the FUD going faster and faster(desperate) ? Hopefully in a circuitous route (clockwise or other) so the sooner it disappears down it' s own exhaust the better

 

[Tslynk67]

First Test Drive of the Tesla Model 3 Performance: A Thrilling, Modern Marvel

Cheers - now it's working, also from the front page. Furthermore, they seem to have taken it outside the paywall!

 

[Ellec]

Cheers - now it's working, also from the front page. Furthermore, they seems to have taken it outside the paywall!

Even better, more eyes on it!

 

[Tslynk67]

Even better, more eyes on it!

Will be top-read article soon, eclipsing even the madness of US politics!

 

[Sancho]

So can we stop the nonsense debate about demand? Thanks!

Excellent post. Here’s my suggestion: going forward, every time one of the enablers of the shorts/bears makes an argument about insufficient future demand, we just respond:

Demand FUD. Move on.

So:

“XXX Automaker is going to eat Tesla’s lunch with its newly announced car.”

Demand FUD. Move on.

“Millennials are not buying cars.”

Demand FUD. Move on.

“Model S sales are down.”

Demand FUD. Move on.

 

[Sunlight]

Now it's gone again - for me anyway...….WSJ M3P article

 

[Mich]

Try other articles on WJS. The site currently jas issues with all articles...

 

[Earlian]

Oh, just for a minute, should we hold the breath and celebrate this big win that shorts changing to ‚demand‘ FUD!

Because it marks a cornerstone in Tesla’s history, since FUDsters finally accept that production isn’t an issue anymore!

Cheers to ‚demand FUD‘

(We know that is a straw since demand will only grow from now on)

 

[1208]

It's not over...

Mother of hero British caver says Elon Musk should be shot | Daily Mail Online

 

[jeewee3000]

Cheers to ‚demand FUD‘

Good point, cheers to "demand FUD"! It used to be "production FUD". Before that "Ponzi scheme/Vaporware FUD". And this counts for every model since the Model S.

Other popular FUDs will stay popular throughout Tesla's existence: "Bankwupcy FUD", "Labour conditions/Union FUD" or "Musk is an *ss and he steals subsidies FUD".

 

[Tslynk67]

And there you go, top article on www.wsj.com - this tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about the future of Tesla right now

 

[Nightshifter]

It's not over...

Mother of hero British caver says Elon Musk should be shot | Daily Mail Online

Hmm, must be a verbal strong family. ;-)

 

[bdy0627]

Does this 5000 include old reservations converting to "orders" or not? These terms are so mixed up, I can't figure out if apple is being compared to orange.

Was it also not the first week orders were opened to all? Yes, it was.
Tesla opens Model 3 order book to all as tax credits begin to wind down

What is known (based on Tesla statements) is that at end of Q1, there were 450k res. End of Q2, 18440 model 3 delivered and 420k res. So definitely, during Q2, net cancellations (cancellations - new res) were faster ((30000-18440)/13 = 889/week). If (new res - cancellations) can't keep up with 1418/week delivery rate, what's going to happen when 10k a week is reached?
No need to be an analyst to figure that one out!
Why are these res numbers always nicely rounded numbers ?

Number of people waiting for vin or delivery are declining (from Troy's sheet). Not sure if it tells something.
View attachment 318315

Troy's data requires individual user input, right? If that's the case, then at some point (maybe now?) the percentage of user's providing spreadsheet input will decline as more and more model 3s are configured. It makes sense to me that the initial buyers of the model 3, not sure what percent, will be more enthusiastic spreadsheet participants; later buyers, not so much. I think it would be very natural for the accuracy of the spreadsheet to drop off over time. Perhaps that is what is going on now?

 

[EinSV]

@SebastianR, great post.

I would add that we keep hearing the exact same story about the Model 3 cancellations over and over again and it is always wrong.

So why do people keep falling for it?

For the whole time period from the 3/31/2016 reveal to the initial production launch in July 2017 bears said cancellations were reducing the number of reservations. But then at the launch event Elon announced there were more reservations than ever.

We heard the same tune from bears through the end of 2017 and into early 2018. Elon/Tesla again announced reservations were stable or continued to climb (depending on time period).

We heard it again all this year. But Tesla reported in its July 2 letter only 2.5 weeks ago that it still had 420,000 reservations despite delivering 28K cars.

In just the two weeks since that letter this Needham analyst sells the same story. Surprise, surprise -- wrong again.

And the reservation line is just the beginning. For both Model S and X, Tesla sells far more cars per year than their total reservations before production began. 450,000 reservations for Model 3 is just the tip of the iceberg. Watch what happens now that the Model 3 is available for test drives and being delivered to customers, and their friends and family get a chance to see it in person.

Questioning the demand for a product with a $20+B reservation queue, particularly with this background, is just plain crazy (or dishonest).