TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[fmonera]

Are you sure about the trend still being down? It only partially rebounded, but the $252 low is behind us and once it broke out of the ~$253 wobbling it has been trending upward, not down.

Note: I am *not* saying it cannot go down further. But you said trend and I'm curious as that is not what I'm seeing on $TSLA at all.

Obviously trend depends on the timeframe you are looking to.

Looking at a daily chart, the uptrend that started on april/2018 ended two days ago, when the price stopped making higher-highs.

On a shorter term, we are on a down trend since the peak of august/2018.

To buy, I expect:

0) Selling climax on a strong support, such as today (huge volume, price stopped, record bad news)
1) Upwards intentionality (for example, april 3rd).
2) No supply on the retracement (low volume retracement except probably the typical bear trap in the end)
3) Buy when the retracement is broken

I can search all this on lower timeframes to try to anticipate.

Sorry if I became too technical.

 

[EVNow]

Everybody unloading shares.

Then who is buying ?

 

[KarenRei]

If you honestly think that article is FUD (given The Verge is a tech site with a huge amount of credibility) then you're neck-deep in fanboy land. There is not one line in that article that is factually inaccurate.

People dismissing material developments and news which is negative, are just as bad (if not worse) than those who are focusing entirely on the negative news.

A large portion of the article is factually inaccurate, as I spelled out in the comments section.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I watched the whole thing.

I’m not a smoker or a drinker and I never smoked weed. But my god. For people to get bent out of shape for Elon doing that one puff, is absolutely nuts. If you actually watch it instead of reading some words, it’s pretty obvious he doesn’t seem to enjoy it and didn’t appear he wanted to smoke it.

Of course it's nuts. That fact is completely irrelevant however if you are a short or bear driven media type. All they need is that 2 minute interaction and they have their headlines for the next week until they find something else they can use against him and Tesla. All this crap piles up. Lie after lie after misinformation after misinformation after distortion after distortion and pretty soon the public believes it. It is incredibly depressing. That interview was amazing. To hear Elon talk about AI and all the other subjects he touched on. Absolute, once in a lifetime genius. But none of that will even be heard because the image of him taking a drag is all people will see. What a waste.

Yes, I'm over it. Probably don't need to sitting here reading all these posts. I think I just need to go to Italy for a week or so and get away. Oh wait, I AM doing that in two weeks! WOO HOO! Maybe when I get back this will all have proven to be just a bad dream.

Dan

 

[McKricas]

When huge volume is present and price cannot go lower, this is professional buying from herd, not the opposite. When the negative press is at it's peak, this adds a lot more credibility to the selling climax scenario.

Definitely not a place to buy yet IMO, the trend is still down. I prefer the price to finish the turn up and then show no supply before buying.

But for me this price level is not a place to sell (or short) at all. Selling on a selling-climax is not wise.

I agree on the sell pressure without price going lower to be a good sign upwards. But, it depends on the timeframe also. I think that is not what we have here (IMO).

High (and increasing) volume in the direction of the trend is a strong indicator of the continuation of the trend until (at least) the volume decreases (pressure eases). At those times, we might expect a change in the trend to occur.

In this case (and using the daily timeframe) the high volume down will most probably drive price down again a little more, probably after a retrace in price.

See intraday action (5 min). We had the gap down movement in high volume at the open, now we have a retrace (in lower volume) and I expect (most probably latter in the day) another down movement in higher volume.

 

[tivoboy]

Model 3 sales increase month to month

Look at the sales increase month to month....THIS is what is important. What other car company has this growth?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 145 345 1,060
2018 1,875 2,485 3,820 3,875 6,250 6,062 14,250 17,800


Tesla Model 3 Sales Figures | GCBC

I would not use anything as an indicator other than August and September and even then it is pretty meaningless till we see another couple months. It is clear that things were being artificially manipulated up till July.

 

[KarenRei]

Then who is buying ?

Me. It's all me. I'm singlehandedly propping up the stock.

(I wish )

 

[humbaba]

Model 3 sales increase month to month

Look at the sales increase month to month....THIS is what is important. What other car company has this growth?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 145 345 1,060
2018 1,875 2,485 3,820 3,875 6,250 6,062 14,250 17,800


Tesla Model 3 Sales Figures | GCBC

Looking at those numbers it looks like Tesla's guidance for 3Q was wrong -- that gives a total of 56,417 already sold while Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard gives 55,882. With September still to go it is hard to see how they can manipulate numbers and not exceed the 50,000 to 55,000 sales quota.

But as to your point: none that I know of. However, it is very easy to have high percentage growth when you have a small slice of the market. The percentage growth will inevitably slow down (though I'm not predicting when that will be). Keep in mind that the top four cars account for over 860,000 YTD. Four place (Honda Accord) is outselling the M3 by more than 3:1.[1]

Plenty of room for growth yet precisely because Tesla doesn't have that kind of market share yet. Which is why buying in now when the stock is low and undervalued makes sense if you want to hold the stock long term.

August 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings – Best-Selling Cars In America | GCBC

 

[mekberg]

Apropos right now:
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[winfield100]

early morning action looks like
sell ~700,000
buy ~850,000
sell ~450,000
buy ~250,000
etc, calmed down around 10:30am EST
bought 2 @ $254.021
bought 1 @ $252.8719
(no margin)

 

[eye.surgeon]

lol

I enjoyed this interview, but it's extremely tame compared to other JRE podcasts. It was almost the opposite of explosive.

Dinosaur media is just getting a few more jabs at the meteor.

The lengths to which people will go to excuse stupid behavior is amusing. Musk is a visionary and a genius, no doubt, but he's a train-wreck of a CEO.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Model 3 sales increase month to month

Look at the sales increase month to month....THIS is what is important. What other car company has this growth?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 145 345 1,060
2018 1,875 2,485 3,820 3,875 6,250 6,062 14,250 17,800


Tesla Model 3 Sales Figures | GCBC

I'm not sure you can take 8 months like this and call it 'growth'. If they were actually making 5k by January 2018
then those numbers would be: 20k, 20k, 20k, 20k, 21k, 21k, 22k, 22k. Would someone say: what a bummer, hardly any growth!

 

[HG Wells]

We are now more than half way back to yesterday's close.
WOW what a roller coaster.

 

[sdtslafan]

Wow, shorts have really played their cards well these past few months. To have the opportunity to cover at 250-260 after record Model 3 sales and successful ramp. You guys deserve to make some money. Why don't you take your winnings and go tackle AMZN and NFLX. Give us longs some time to recover and let tesla fix this world.

 

[Unpilot]

The lengths to which people will go to excuse stupid behavior is amusing. Musk is a visionary and a genius, no doubt, but he's a train-wreck of a CEO.

Why is he a train wreck...IN YOUR opinion....because of short term stock volatility?
Having built four of the most talked about companies in the last 20 years with two being unbelievably successful (PayPal,Space X) I think he has been a little bit better that a "Train Wreck"

 

[fmonera]

I agree on the sell pressure without price going lower to be a good sign upwards. But, it depends on the timeframe also. I think that is not what we have here (IMO).

High (and increasing) volume in the direction of the trend is a strong indicator of the continuation of the trend until (at least) the volume decreases (pressure eases). At those times, we might expect a change in the trend to occur.

In this case (and using the daily timeframe) the high volume down will most probably drive price down again a little more, probably after a retrace in price.

See intraday action (5 min). We had the gap down movement in high volume at the open, now we have a retrace (in lower volume) and I expect (most probably latter in the day) another down movement in higher volume.

Agree with you. I just commented that now it is not the place to buy, and especially not the place to sell. The first hints of bulls taking control are happening, but to confirm this some more things must happen.

Please note that I am not trying to predict the price movement. I just say that for me, when the bullish movement is confirmed, then it will be the moment to bet my money.

As a bottom line fundamentals on Tesla didn't change at all (although I don't use them to trade). Model 3 record sales, huge disruptive tech, the only company with a steer assist on the market that I can actually buy (not being a joke), cars that become better with time through ota updates, competition years behind, ...

 

[LoveTSLA]

I was initially got a little bit frustrated about the drop. Almost made panic sell. Then I decided to hold it for hundreds of thousands dollars paper loss. Maybe Elon is “purposely” set a bear trap? We will see...

 

[N5329K]

Whatever your personal views are on recreational weed, it was a horrible example of how not to lead by example. What do you suppose EM might think of people building his cars while chemically impaired? If it's OK for him, why not them?
That was a huge issue when Tesla Fremont was NUMMI, and we know how that ended.
Robin

 

[ZsoZso]

I have a hard time believing this level drop is a weed related drop. There has to be another event.

Based on my thinkorswim daily chart there was a $500k dump when premarket opened, but a roughly $17M stock dump at 8:32 AM in premarket. Is that an institution bailing out?

My speculation is that Saudi fund had a change of heart since the going private move was cancelled and they are actively unloading their 5%. Why do it so aggressively I have no idea... Would have been smarter slowly over longer time period, IMHO.

 

[sdtslafan]

Elon is giving the shorts an opportunity to take a profit and move on. He's doing this at the expense of weak longs. He said love is the answer last night, didn't you hear.