TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Information seems accurate. He was almost spot-on with the June 24-30 production numbers.

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there? And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

it’s obv (demographically) the largest %age of the 400k+ are waiting for base. i think only a couple % are P to be conservative. and i’m not worried about demand like some insist on pushing out there. i’m pleasantly surprised that they have at least 50k (seemingly) of the LR RWD which as we know has a nice yield. maybe there’s 100k of that build? who knows. but it’s still fun to talk about it.

 

[Skryll]

it’s obv (demographically) the largest %age of the 400k+ are waiting for base. i think only a couple % are P to be conservative. and i’m not worried about demand like some insist on pushing out there. i’m pleasantly surprised that they have at least 50k (seemingly) of the LR RWD which as we know has a nice yield. maybe there’s 100k of that build? who knows. but it’s still fun to talk about it.

I am pretty sure there is a lot more demand for the LR version in germany If you go 93mph for a two hours (autopilot max speed in europe) the 310 mile range shrink to 200 miles and you have to be at your next supercharger stop.

 

[jelloslug]

I did a quick search on TMC but was unable to come up with the current status of Tesla's license in Charlotte. Can they sell now? The license-pulling was in 2016 and I can't remember if Tesla won on an appeal or not.

They sell out of the Raleigh store but the delivery happens at Charlotte. All of the cars in the showroom say "Not For Sale" on them and they are not allowed test drive new cars. They only cars that can be driven by would be customers have to be titled and tagged and not for sale.

 

[mmd]

Information seems accurate. He was almost spot-on with the June 24-30 production numbers.

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there? And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

Or perhaps.. the high res count is only because of long times to get the model 3 refund, and the cancellation line is backlogged for months? Which one is better?

First there were over 10000 Employee res. It was so desirable, every employee of Tesla, SpaceX and SCTY were to get at least one black Model 3.
Then there were tens of thousands of owner res.
Then there are tens of thousands of PLR res.
Then there are hundreds of thousands of SR res.
Then there will be hundreds of thousands of other PLR orders, all outside US.
...

 

[Causalien]

Tech looks too frothy. Get to profitability faster.

 

[jhm]

Short squeeze should take us beyond 400 and I think that needs at least 2 quarters of profits - but confirmation of sustained 5k/wk in earnings/cc might be enough for 370 ...(provided macros and upcoming earnings overall are good )

$370, yes, please.

 

[JRP3]

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there?

No.

And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

Yes.
There are also a LOT of people waiting on the 36-49K version.

 

[Unpilot]

$370, yes, please.

I think in two years $370 will look quite quaint.

 

[steve3]

Any ideas, suggestions on what will the bear thesis will move on to next, once their own source has M3 sustained production at 5k/week?

My sister sent me this in Barron’s today (I don’t have a link to it).
“Teresa Rivas
July 18, 2018 3:32 p.m. ET

From Elon Musk's lively Twitter presence to worries about self-driving cars, there's no shortage of headlines that tie back to Tesla (TSLA). Yet plenty of bulls argue that investors should tune out the noise: Once the electric-car maker starts turning in regular quarterly profits, that's all that will matter. Faith in Musk and the product will be vindicated, the company will be less beholden to debt markets, and the stock will rise.

Or will it?

Datatrek's Nicolas Colas thinks not. If Tesla starts delivering consistent earnings, investors will start to value it like a car maker–a high-growth auto firm, for sure, but a car maker nonetheless. And that doesn't do great things for a stock's valuation. "And after looking at that sector for more than 25 years, we know where that leads: multiple erosion as markets deliberate, 'Is Tesla really 20 times better than General Motors (GM) on a multiple basis, or just 10 times better?'” Colas writes in a report published today.

Then there's the fact that Tesla, like other big companies, will ultimately find itself hampered by its size. Stock "multiples tend to contract as already large companies grow their market share. You can only get to 100%, after all," he writes.

What's fueled Tesla's rise so far, Colas posits, is that markets have been valuing the stock the way a venture capital firm eyes up a new prospect, looking not for steady earnings, but disruption potential and swift user adoption. In this world, moving toward a stage where a company starts reporting regular earnings signals a shift in its evolution that may not be as appealing. "Profits that approximate the company’s cost of capital only occur when the business has ended its explosive growth phase and can’t scale into new opportunities. Then, rather than seeing the stock rise further in celebration of strong earnings, the vultures start to circle."

Tesla is scheduled to report earnings on Aug. 1, and analysts expect it to lose $2.73 a share. Hooray?”

 

[jhm]

I think in two years $370 will look quite quaint.

Yep, like $37 just 5 years ago.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Skabooshka is making sh1t up... throwing in some good looking numbers to lend credibility to his FUD. I have proof.

Attached are screenshots of his commentary from his “sources” in the last week of June. Clearly he either had misinformation or lied as Tesla produced 2k S/X in the last week whereas he said Tesla shifted all resources to model 3 and produced no cars. Also he never brought up any numbers on the last week of production until after Tesla released them....

Haven’t seen any great sources of production info but Skabooshka is definitely not one of them.

Spread this around the forum please so we can end his crap.

 

[Big Earl]

Skabooshka is making sh1t up... throwing in some good looking numbers to lend credibility to his FUD. I have proof.

Attached are screenshots of his commentary from his “sources” in the last week of June. Clearly he either had misinformation or lied as Tesla produced 2k S/X in the last week whereas he said Tesla shifted all resources to model 3 and produced no cars. Also he never brought up any numbers on the last week of production until after Tesla released them....

Haven’t seen any great sources of production info but Skabooshka is definitely not one of them.

Spread this around the forum please so we can end his crap.

I don’t think I’d count that as proof that he’s making things up. His numbers seem to align pretty well with augkuo’s pictures of the logistics lot these past few days. Still, he could be making numbers up based on his own observations of logistics activity rather than getting information from an internal source. Or maybe he and his brother take turns sitting across the street and counting cars around-the-clock.

 

[jhm]

My sister sent me this in Barron’s today (I don’t have a link to it).
“Teresa Rivas
July 18, 2018 3:32 p.m. ET

From Elon Musk's lively Twitter presence to worries about self-driving cars, there's no shortage of headlines that tie back to Tesla (TSLA). Yet plenty of bulls argue that investors should tune out the noise: Once the electric-car maker starts turning in regular quarterly profits, that's all that will matter. Faith in Musk and the product will be vindicated, the company will be less beholden to debt markets, and the stock will rise.

Or will it?

Datatrek's Nicolas Colas thinks not. If Tesla starts delivering consistent earnings, investors will start to value it like a car maker–a high-growth auto firm, for sure, but a car maker nonetheless. And that doesn't do great things for a stock's valuation. "And after looking at that sector for more than 25 years, we know where that leads: multiple erosion as markets deliberate, 'Is Tesla really 20 times better than General Motors (GM) on a multiple basis, or just 10 times better?'” Colas writes in a report published today.

Then there's the fact that Tesla, like other big companies, will ultimately find itself hampered by its size. Stock "multiples tend to contract as already large companies grow their market share. You can only get to 100%, after all," he writes.

What's fueled Tesla's rise so far, Colas posits, is that markets have been valuing the stock the way a venture capital firm eyes up a new prospect, looking not for steady earnings, but disruption potential and swift user adoption. In this world, moving toward a stage where a company starts reporting regular earnings signals a shift in its evolution that may not be as appealing. "Profits that approximate the company’s cost of capital only occur when the business has ended its explosive growth phase and can’t scale into new opportunities. Then, rather than seeing the stock rise further in celebration of strong earnings, the vultures start to circle."

Tesla is scheduled to report earnings on Aug. 1, and analysts expect it to lose $2.73 a share. Hooray?”

I think it is fine for Tesla to get value as a automaker. What's missing here is that Tesla will be taking market share at favorable margins. So the market will value it as a growing automaker. It is growth that pushes up the PE ratio.

Tesla will have a solid share of the EV market, maybe 20%. It should hold onto that as EVs come to dominate the whole auto market. Thus, Tesla will have a path to a 20% share of the whole auto industry. This would make it twice as large as Toyota or VW. I think grabbing market share will be the name of the game once EVs capture 5 to 10 percent of the market.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I don’t think I’d count that as proof that he’s making things up. His numbers seem to align pretty well with augkuo’s pictures of the logistics lot these past few days. Still, he could be making numbers up based on his own observations of logistics activity rather than getting information from an internal source. Or maybe he and his brother take turns sitting across the street and counting cars around-the-clock.

He's a known bear, who has posted mis-information before (again, he LIED about Tesla not making S/X in the last week and I am showing you proof of it), and you think the Occam's razor explanation is that he's counting cars every single day of his life 24/7?

 

[oneday]

My sister sent me this in Barron’s today (I don’t have a link to it).
“Teresa Rivas
July 18, 2018 3:32 p.m. ET

From Elon Musk's lively Twitter presence to worries about self-driving cars, there's no shortage of headlines that tie back to Tesla (TSLA). Yet plenty of bulls argue that investors should tune out the noise: Once the electric-car maker starts turning in regular quarterly profits, that's all that will matter. Faith in Musk and the product will be vindicated, the company will be less beholden to debt markets, and the stock will rise.

Or will it?

Datatrek's Nicolas Colas thinks not. If Tesla starts delivering consistent earnings, investors will start to value it like a car maker–a high-growth auto firm, for sure, but a car maker nonetheless. And that doesn't do great things for a stock's valuation. "And after looking at that sector for more than 25 years, we know where that leads: multiple erosion as markets deliberate, 'Is Tesla really 20 times better than General Motors (GM) on a multiple basis, or just 10 times better?'” Colas writes in a report published today.

Then there's the fact that Tesla, like other big companies, will ultimately find itself hampered by its size. Stock "multiples tend to contract as already large companies grow their market share. You can only get to 100%, after all," he writes.

What's fueled Tesla's rise so far, Colas posits, is that markets have been valuing the stock the way a venture capital firm eyes up a new prospect, looking not for steady earnings, but disruption potential and swift user adoption. In this world, moving toward a stage where a company starts reporting regular earnings signals a shift in its evolution that may not be as appealing. "Profits that approximate the company’s cost of capital only occur when the business has ended its explosive growth phase and can’t scale into new opportunities. Then, rather than seeing the stock rise further in celebration of strong earnings, the vultures start to circle."

Tesla is scheduled to report earnings on Aug. 1, and analysts expect it to lose $2.73 a share. Hooray?”

Just another, The Sky is Falling (or is about to fall) article on Tesla. This really is getting tiring.

Also, it really irks me that our resident trolls, I mean bears, are already spewing their model 3 demand nonsense on this thread. I thought they’d wait at least a few months. It’s ridiculous, it has no basis in reality (obviously they don’t know what that means hint hint) and there is currently no good conversation to be had about it, at this time.

Therefore, I kindly request our gracious moderators to ban, for now, any talk of model 3 demand from the investors general and market action threads. I hated it four years ago and I hate it now. Yet now they, literally, have the most demand in the history of automobiles, 400000+ preorders. So let’s please take it to the demand thread (yep it’s right down there) and keep these threads about worthwhile topics of conversation.

Anyone else with me? I guess you can like if you agree and disagree if it should be left here.

 

[JRP3]

We do have a Demand thread Demand

 

[gtrplyr1]

There are also a LOT of people waiting on the 36-49K version.[/QUOTE]

I'd agree with this as I think many will be inclined to take the $5k upgrades (Roof, Stereo, Interior etc ... )

I simply don't need 320 miles as I have a level 2 charger in my garage and rarely need to drive over 220 miles in a day. Even if I did need to drive more miles I'm sure I could hit a supercharger for a short period to get some additional range. I really think most people would be fine with the standard range and $9k for the larger battery is quite a bit of money. I also don't really care about 0-60 speed .... even the base model is plenty quick enough for me. I'd bet between $40-50k would be the sweet spot for many, especially if we could get the full tax credit which in my case would be $10k as I live in CA.

AND even at $35k a 30% margin is a pretty nice profit .... considering Tesla has much lower operating expenses (No Dealer markups, advertising, union labor ... etc....)

Cheers to the longs.

 

[scaesare]

it’s obv (demographically) the largest %age of the 400k+ are waiting for base. i think only a couple % are P to be conservative. and i’m not worried about demand like some insist on pushing out there. i’m pleasantly surprised that they have at least 50k (seemingly) of the LR RWD which as we know has a nice yield. maybe there’s 100k of that build? who knows. but it’s still fun to talk about it.

I'm pretty sure the P take-rate for early Model S production was far greater than a "couple %". I am an early 2013 non-P owner (10XXX VIN), and when I finally started to see other Esses around here, it felt like as many or more were P models than standards like mine.

I don't know if this will exactly map to the 3 take mix... but I suspect far greater than what you suggest. It wouldn't surprise me if 25-50% were P's....

 

[SPadival]

the cnbc chanos interview just another anti musk one sided hit piece, not that i expected anything else. sorry, not even worth putting here. i had to watch it, but it pained me clicking on worthless cnbc, especially lying manipulating handpicked for interview wapner, i’d rather pick up boomer doodoo

My reaction on twitter.

S Padival on Twitter

 

[steve3]

I think it is fine for Tesla to get value as a automaker. What's missing here is that Tesla will be taking market share at favorable margins. So the market will value it as a growing automaker. It is growth that pushes up the PE ratio.

Tesla will have a solid share of the EV market, maybe 20%. It should hold onto that as EVs come to dominate the whole auto market. Thus, Tesla will have a path to a 20% share of the whole auto industry. This would make it twice as large as Toyota or VW. I think grabbing market share will be the name of the game once EVs capture 5 to 10 percent of the market.

Appreciate your thoughtful, on-topic reply.