TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

looks like Elon will not be on Joe Rogan’s podcast today, though this is not an official schedule

Upcoming Guests on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast | JRE Library

 

[MikeQ]

People are spooked from all the chatter of SEC investigations and all the claims Elon is lying or might be lying. #Insane

The largest man-made economic catastrophe since the Depression resulted in the jailing of just one investment banker.

Does anyone really think Elon is in danger of being prosecuted?

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Remarkable. We've dropped now _below_ where we were trading at when the taking private tweet came out. Makes no sense to me. That suggests that the market is pricing in less than a 0% chance the deal goes through, if such a thing we're even possible. Time to think about backing up the truck and buying more.

 

[Evoforce]

Grrr!! still pulling my hair out trying to get them to fund my trading account. They want to conference call with my bank now! Bank doesn't open for about another hour. Grumbling...

 

[The Blue Owl]

The largest man-made economic catastrophe since the Depression resulted in the jailing of just one investment banker.

Does anyone really think Elon is in danger of being prosecuted?

If he did something illegal (I don't think he did, just to be clear), they would definitely make an example of him. Wall Street hates him because he's not one of them. The prosecutors would jump on it.

(None of this will happen.)

 

[jw934]

Being Thursday, I think the biggest driver for today's SP fall is tomorrow's Friday option expiry. Max Pain reigns again.

 

[Singer3000]

If Larry Page says "Hey, I'd like to borrow some money against my Alphabet shares", the bank *does not ask him what he's going to use the money for*.

Ermmmm... yes they would.

 

[Open Interest]

Nearly an hour ago CNBC interviewed Robert Peck, Credit Suisse global head of internet investment banking.

In answer to a question regarding taking Tesla private at 2:56 minute mark,

“I can’t comment specifically on any client that we have or prospective client that we have…”

Link to video: Nasdaq trying for its longest win streak of 2018

I saw that as well this morning and wondered if he was suggesting Tesla is a client, or if his firm is working with some of the investors. Hmmm.....

 

[Cosmacelf]

Musk is too big to jail

Actually, there is a lot of truth to that. Not too big, too popular.

I think it was in the late ‘90s (or early 2000s) when it somehow became fashionable for CEOs of public companies to back date their employee option grants, mostly to benefit themselves. Employee stock options would be granted to executives, and normally, they are dated at the time the board votes for the option package. This matters because you only make money on such employee stock options if the price of the stock increases from that point on. Anyways, a lot of CEOs got greedy and if the stock price had been climbing, would back date the option grant to ensure even more stock price appreciation.

The SEC started noticing this and jailed a bunch of CEOs due to this practice, effectively shutting down the scheme. Know who one of the CEOs who did this was? Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple. He got caught doing this as the SEC was cracking down. Did this make waves in the press? Did the SEC do a heavy handed enforcement action against Jobs? No and no. At the time Jobs could do no wrong and the SEC quietly asked Apple to properly date the stock options and let it go at that.

I’m not saying Musk WILL get the Jobs treatment if it ever came to that, just that it has happened in the past and could easily happen again.

 

[GreyHair]

I've gone in again for some shares at 356.33

 

[HG Wells]

WOW it hit 354 for a moment.

 

[neroden]

I'm not sure acquiring stock is insider trading.

It is. Any company which had had talks with Elon about going private and then bought stock on the open market before Musk mentioned the talks could be in a bit of trouble. Now that the news is out, of course, they can.

 

[Open Interest]

If Larry Page says "Hey, I'd like to borrow some money against my Alphabet shares", the bank *does not ask him what he's going to use the money for*.

So, sure, technically big banks would be involved, but they wouldn't *know anything*.


It could actually be pretty straightforward. There's some confusion about the word "private". If the company stays "public" for SEC reporting purposes, but delists from all exchanges, eliminates options trading, and gets a right-of-first-refusal on all share sales, that pretty much accomplishes Musk's goals.

That's.... actually not that complicated. Entities which aren't allowed to hold unlisted stock would still have to sell, which is where the tender offer for $420/share comes in. Tender offers are also pretty simple...


Indeed, fancy legal advice will be needed. The usual M&A law firms wouldn't tell you if they were being consulted obviously -- lawyers are confidential!

I really enjoy your posts Neroden. You are a wealth of knowledge!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think we all have to admit the way this was executed was bad. I can’t imagine the board is all that thrilled with the tweet, but if everything goes through I guess all is forgiven.

I actually agree with this. The stock price is now below the price it was when the announcement was made. It also killed the rise due to the Saudi investment. In my opinion the stock would have risen much higher without Elon’s tweet and wouldn’t have reversed as drastically as we’re now seeing. Seems like Elon killed the stock momentum to be able to bring Tesla private at a lower price, which is actually bad for us shareholders....

Edit: Bad for the many loyal shareholders who will not be able to hold onto their shares in a private Tesla.

 

[ZachShahan]

Absolutely, follow the major news outlets and nothing else then they're clearly doomed.

But are there any retail investors here who don't absolutely trust Elon at his word? It doesn't even cross my mind that he might be lying. I don't actually think Elon is the type of person who lies anyway - overly optimistic, yes, but a liar, absolutely not. How can I tell this? Well when you're inherently honest yourself, you see it in other people very quickly. Elon is incredibly sincere, too much at times it must be said.

I would imagine that if we were to sum the investments from the shareholders on this thread, we'd get many millions of $, even if you're succumbing to the FUD, don't! Believe in Elon, he's not kidding. Once we get some more concrete info, the SP will reverse, very quickly I think.

Elon is so insanely, honorably sincere. This is what I don't get. I don't understand how people can listen/watch him so much and not see that. It blows my mind.

There are so many examples of "counterproductive honesty" that I'm not even going to list them. But the whole claim of him being a liar blows my mind and instantly throws up yellow/red flags for me telling me to be cautious with anything else that person says.

 

[neroden]

That brings up a good point. Will there be an opportunity for new investors to buy in at any point if they go private?

Almost certainly not.

If not, I may just do what you suggest. I assume I could add to my position periodically if I was already in?

Musk did indicate that this was a possibility. Though if they don't need funding... then not.

 

[mmd]

I have a couple of aquaintances that opened new short positions yesterday. They were previously bearish on Tesla, but were unwilling to short due to the possibility of large increases in the share price if market remained irrational (from their viewpoint). They now feel comfortable shorting, their thinking being $420 caps there losses.

I dont agree with their strategy at all (Im long via calls) - but just thought I woudl share what perhaps many are thinking.

I did too, and bought few more puts at a discount too Thank you Elon!

The ignorance and hatred on this forum about short selling is astounding. I put the link out there, but the posters whose 90% posts are about shorts don't even browse it. Like ti or not, short selling is legal if done properly (just like buying shares) and short sellers are legit market participants.
Jim Chanos said it best: "Short selling is the best thing that is going on for this company right now" ( to be newsworthy).

 

[dailo]

Elon is so insanely, honorably sincere. This is what I don't get. I don't understand how people can listen/watch him so much and not see that. It blows my mind.

There are so many examples of "counterproductive honesty" that I'm not even going to list them. But the whole claim of him being a liar blows my mind and instantly throws up yellow/red flags for me telling me to be cautious with anything else that person says.

That is just the shorts narrative. However, if I think objectively has he not come through on things he has said in the past? Absolutely. Does that make him a liar? I don’t personally think so but I can see how others might feel that way. When it comes to something as serious as this and not deadlines, I can’t imagine he is lying but it’s also not totally in his control.

 

[Unpilot]

I did too, and bought few more puts at a discount too Thank you Elon!

The ignorance and hatred on this forum about short selling is astounding. I put the link out there, but the posters whose 90% posts are about shorts don't even browse it. Like ti or not, short selling is legal if done properly (just like buying shares) and short sellers are legit market participants.
Jim Chanos said it best: "Short selling is the best thing that is going on for this company right now" ( to be newsworthy).

I agree......till you brought up Chanos.

 

[Boomer19]

Jim Chanos said it best: "Short selling is the best thing that is going on for this company right now" ( to be newsworthy).

idiotic thing to say or agree with. had enough of your misleading BS too
can chalk this up to snippiness, but for damn good reason