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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Check out the timeline of the Michael Dell buyout offer, which started in the summer of 2012:

Except, Elon did in fact announce already that going private is certain except for shareholder approval. The only reasonable way to read that tweet from the CEO and Chairman of the Board is that there are in fact hard commitments that have a material impact on shareholders right now.
 
Except, Elon did in fact announce already that going private is certain except for shareholder approval. The only reasonable way to read that tweet from the CEO and Chairman of the Board is that there are in fact hard commitments that have a material impact on shareholders right now.

Well, the board then released a statement that made it clear that they are still evaluating his proposal.

I.e. nothing final has been accepted yet.

But, I'd argue that even if technically they might not be required to clarify the situation, in practice it would be untenable now that Elon spilled the beans, and the uncertainty can be damaging as well - so they'll file something, possibly during the weekend or on Monday, before trading or after trading?
 
And a buyout price has been declared, so it’s beyond any initial discussions (obviously).

The market doesn’t believe it. Bonds lost all their gains and then more. The Board hasn’t been told anything, so it seems there is no agreed plan. If Musk was still negotiating when he tweeted, then the tweet is a strategic error because now he’s under pressure to come up with something tangible otherwise the proverbial will hit the fan with the SEC. If there is a plan and an agreement, which would be considered MNPI, will draw a huge amount of scrutiny from regulators, because depending on who it is, there will be an investigation of major trades made just before (which there were a lot) and after the announcement.

TBH, I don’t think this is what Tesla needs right now given their cash position, the bond market and their desire to turn a profit in Q3.
 
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Except, Elon did in fact announce already that going private is certain except for shareholder approval. The only reasonable way to read that tweet from the CEO and Chairman of the Board is that there are in fact hard commitments that have a material impact on shareholders right now.

The problem is that the tweet didn't come from Elon as the CEO and Chairman of the Board. It came from him personally. (It can be hard to tell which hat he is wearing at any given time.)

And a buyout price has been declared, so it’s beyond any initial discussions (obviously).

No, a buy-out offer has been made, it hasn't been board approved yet. Discussions are either in progress or haven't even really started yet.
 
Yes, but that is a buying power of +1 million shares, which combined with other buyers shouldn't be driving the price down but up.

Yet there was clear, systematic marking down of TSLA in the last 2 days, which cannot have been shorts selling to shorts.

I may be way off here...

Net purchasing (marker buy vs market sell) does not guarantee SP rise. A drop due to selling pressure can cause the ask price to drop along with the bid price and the SP may not recover if the ask volume at the lower point is high. Say it drops to 350, then someone puts in large sell at 351, never gets up to $355 again even with buy buying at market.
 
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Except, Elon did in fact announce already that going private is certain except for shareholder approval. The only reasonable way to read that tweet from the CEO and Chairman of the Board is that there are in fact hard commitments that have a material impact on shareholders right now.
These are commitments from potential investors to Elon as a leader of an effort to go private. They are not yet commitments to Tesla, nor has Tesla made any commitments. No 8k is required yet.
 
From reddit:

“TSLA is coming to an end. Soon, all 35 million shares will need to be returned to their owners. But guess what...

All you shorts sold your stock to a bunch of cult members who aren't going to let them go because we want to own Tesla after it is private.

You are screwed and you don't even know it.

Your only hope is that more than 35 million TSLA shares currently owned are sold by people before they go private. If less than 35 million TSLA shares currently owned are sold by people before they go private, there literally IS NOT enough TSLA shares available for the short-sellers to cover.

If less than 35 million TSLA shares currently being held are sold at $420 or less, mathematically the stock will be forced over $420 when all shorts are forced to cover.

Shorts like math. I know they tell me its important. Wonder why they don't see this mathematical problem coming their way.

EDIT:

This is why we've entered the "distort" portion of the "short and distort" game. It is all they have left to save themselves. When the funders of the privatization are announced and deniability falls to zero, the game is over. They have to try to get as many people to sell now as possible.

And this is why the privatization may cost Tesla $0 (not including paying for Tesla's debt). There may not be any shares left to buy at $420 and it will go private at a higher valuation, the valuation on the last day of trading, after the short squeeze occurs.

Why does everyone think the $420 offer is so low and close to the current stock price? SO THAT EVERYONE HOLDS AND CAUSES THE SQUEEZE! The low offer is a GOOD thing!”
 
If Musk was still negotiating when he tweeted, then the tweet is a strategic error because now he’s under pressure to come up with something tangible otherwise the proverbial will hit the fan with the SEC.
There's no pressure to come up with something now. Either funding was secured as of Monday, and Elon is fine. Or funding was not secured as of Monday, and he is screwed. Securing funding now will not turn a lie into truth, nor a crime (securities fraud) into not-a-crime.
 
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