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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Tesla $0:
Elon Musk was fined $20M.
Tesla was fined $20M.
Tesla $(20M)
Elon Musk is buying $20M of shares from Tesla.
Tesla: $(20M) + $20M = $(0M)
tt's not about the money (not to be funny) but about the WHY for the trivial announcement. Frankly, if I were paying for the companys' fine based on my rogue action, I'd probably just try and slip it into the federal filing and be done with it.

Musk buying 20M of stock is really trivial, the company accounting of that too is trivial. to me at least (and only apparently) it almost seems like they're trying to indicate some interest or confidence in the stock and therefore lets make some announcement.

the market seems to have chosen though as well as the mkt has pretty much totally recovered and TSLA is trading on the lows for the day.
 
It's also important that Tesla gives conservative predictions going forward. Giving optimistic predictions then can't meet it will hurt credibility and hurt aggressive longs. It has great marketing effect if every quarter the news is "Tesla beat the estimate" instead of "Tesla missed again". I understand Elon didn't have much choice in the past.
So this is how you pick stocks? - company meets/beats every estimate. And you call this deep analysis what exactly??
 
Frankly, if I were paying for the companys' fine based on my rogue action, I'd probably just try and slip it into the federal filing and be done with it.
People heard that Tesla lost $20m of value due to something Musk did. So, them hearing that he put that money back into the company is also important for some and may reduce speculations on this subject. I see why he would want this announced publicly.
 
Regarding people leaving Tesla:

No one ever got competing job offers that they couldn't turn down?

Tesla's package: Change the fortunes of your family 10 years from now.

Lyft package to scalp a high level Tesla employee: Change the fortunes of your family 2 years from now.

With a headcount of 40,000 - how many VP's does Tesla have anyway? Probably too many.

Bear fake news writers and their lemmings are aggravating.
 
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People heard that Tesla lost $20m of value due to something Musk did. So, them hearing that he put that money back into the company is also important for some and may reduce speculations on this subject. I see why he would want this announced publicly.
Sadly, it was a heck of a lot more than 20$M of value. More like 10B
 
The other players have had exactly the same amount of time(actually, about 100 years more) to perfect those processes as Tesla has had. At this point, give them a few more years to finally try to catch up or die. I don’t think the US government should be propping up businesses that fail to adapt.

Giving a set number of years with such subsidies makes sense to push a technology improvement to reduce climate change and pollution. Continuing to give the subsidy until they reach a set number of cars, so that players who have dragged their feet all these years can survive the change doesn’t.

Though, I will say, it may make sense to allow brand new entries to the car business some number of buffer years after their inception to get off the ground.
How is that propping up if they don't get a preferential treatment? Ok, they are late, but if they manage to make better cars than some other new startups, why not let them make those cars? I'm not talking about saving them from the bankruptcy with taxpayer dollars, just letting them have access to the same money that others had access to.

As far as this being limited to a few years...well, there's some sense in not keeping the incentive around for a 100 years, but if Tesla is only capable to make 1% of the cars that the world needs, then where the other 99% will come from? I think the incentive needs to stay around until there's enough competition and production capacity to make a real dent in the replacement of ICEs.
 
Come on, you have to be kidding. See these tracks?

These are just the typhoons that hit Shanghai *this year*.

Nope - not kidding! Just don't see the point in alarmist view here....

Yes - and did any of these have any major industrial impact? There are severe storms, and s**t happens, but nothing to worry about at this stage related to Tesla constructing a GF there IMHO!.


.

Not an earthquake/tsunami hazard zone?

China's earthquake risk is one for the record books, modelers

It's a lower risk than Beijing, but it's still on the Ring of Fire. The main faults run offshore between Taiwan and Japan... aka, underwater.

I think this is a better source for Shanghai. To quote a few items:
"....This area of eastern China is part of the South China block, a stable continental region that is tectonically rigid, thermally cold and with no major tectonic activity since the early Mesozoic..."

"...This immediately suggests that the Shanghai area does not experience high hazard magnitude earthquakes...."

"...In general, the seismic hazard of Shanghai is low to medium with a PGA value of 25 cm s2 for a 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years. PGA is a short period ground motion parameter affecting short period structures or low-level buildings..."

So, IMHO, Shanghai is not an earthquake risk zone.

How does it compare to the Fremont location vis-a-vis location on / near actual fault line?

Regarding Tsunamis: I think these are a few good articles to read. Again IMHO not an issue.



Overall: Have you been to Shanghai? Flooding does happen there and it does disrupt life. However it is dealt with. Regarding reclaimed land: I have first hand experience of living on reclaimed land (Hong Kong) and don't see this as an unmanageable risk.
If you read the article behind that sensationalist headline (which is based on a re-insurance companies risk assessment report), then the only risk worth mentioning is flooding in Shanghai center itself. Flooding in an area of 24 million people, and an area of 2448 square miles is a risk you have to manage, agreed.

But: Lingang City is miles away from "downtown" Shanghai. Newly built. And for sure engineered to mitigate flooding risks.

It's not unreasonable to be bringing these factors up in an investment discussion. I'm sure Tesla is well aware of them, but we need to be aware of them as well.

Sorry - I'll agree to disagree here. I personally see no point whatsoever discussing this here, or anywhere else (other than in the architectural engineering/planning office of Tesla China...)
 
Yes, I think it does preclude it - but I was wrong about the accounting treatment: the net Q4 profit effect is still -$20m, but the capital paid in by Elon will neutralize the negative cash flow effects.
Do you mean 'Q3 profit effect'?

GAAP requires costs be recognized when they are incurred. Since the settlement was agreed to in Q3, I expect Tesla's accountants will reflect the $20M cost in Q3. I don't see any wiggle room here on the timing under GAAP. Do you?
 
Do you mean 'Q3 profit effect'?

GAAP requires costs be recognized when they are incurred. Since the settlement was agreed to in Q3, I expect Tesla's accountants will reflect the $20M cost in Q3. I don't see any wiggle room here on the timing under GAAP. Do you?

Wasn't final until the judge signs off. I see no reason it should be in Q3.
 
I think the incentive needs to stay around until there's enough competition and production capacity to make a real dent in the replacement of ICEs.

I’d argue we’re well on our way there right now and certainly will be by 2022. An electric vehicle was the 5th best selling car in the US last quarter. 25-35% of Americans are planning on an EV as their next car, and that number is rising by 5-10% of the population every year. By the time 2022 comes around, the war should be won(if not, it makes sense to talk about extending more years at that point).

At that point, all you’re doing by giving the tax credit for Ford/etc is saving those companies from failure caused by their own inability or unwillingness to adapt.
 
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