TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[oneday]

Sheikh, et al. v. Tesla, Inc.

This settlement was approved in court in San Jose yesterday. I wonder if this is the confusion Elon was talking about regarding FSD, although I think this lawsuit was only in regards to EAP so I’m probably wrong. The timing sure is coincidental though.

 

[S3XY]

Oh, and slightly back on topic. I picked up a few more shares today. I think I'm tapped out for a while now. I'm expecting a small bump first thing tomorrow followed by the usual MMD and end the day slightly up vs. the macros at least. Q3 ER will push us towards 300, Q4 ER up near 350, and another temporary boost from Model Y reveal that falls back to pre-reveal levels. Advise from someone who should not be trusted for advise.

 

[Buckminster]

Anyone OCD about lack of U in lemur? Howse bout:
Limited Edition Med yUm Range?
Do we think it will be limited edition? I would think so.

 

[oneday]

Anyone OCD about lack of U in lemur? Howse bout:
Limited Edition Med yUm Range?
Do we think it will be limited edition? I would think so.

Yes it has been bugging me since the moment it was announced. Med yUm isn’t any better.

Edit: just had an idea, it’s for all possible battery variants:

LemuR= Long Range
LemuR= Extraordinary Range
LemuR= Mid Range
LemuR= Unfortunate Range

 

[M3Rider]

Elon did tweet recently that they have a long way to go yet. It makes sense to eliminate it. Funny though that they were just stressing the savings for people who purchase FSD up front. Now it's gone. It's almost like these are spur of the moment decisions going on there, which seems...a little strange at this point?

FSD removal is the right thing to do.
They said the old chip won't support FSD, so no point for you to buy it early and not have FSD until it's replaced. Once the chip is available, you'll pay the full thing, so the replacement is no longer free.

 

[30seconds]

I’m just going to point out that Tesla has a pretty unique capability to walk down the price / cost curve to maximize profits.

BMW does a nice job of this with multiple engine variants for the 3 series (usually 3 to 4 gas, a diesel and a hybrid) but changing the number of cells in a pack is much cheaper to develop that 5 engine variants.

I think Tesla is following more of the Toyota model for the 3 & Y however. Handful of options and very high volumes.

Might be a nice way to further differentiate the S & X. Additional colors, interiors and luxury options only available on those cars.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yeah, the jokes on you. The waiting is even harder now that you've ordered it. Congrats!

@ggies07, so much this! If you thought the wait to order a model 3 was long?! These next 4-10 weeks will be torture! Just in time for halloween!!! Or black friday?

 

[Buckminster]

Elon thinks the options are too complicated but surely they will become more complicated once the SR is introduced? Elon will want all SR buyers to be tempted by the various $2-5k options as individual upgrades - won't he?

 

[phil0909]

FSD going away as an option is a spin-meister's wet dream--I can see the mis-reporting now...

What is the positive spin for this?

 

[SpaceCash]

In the future, I hope to see a ridiculous plethora of customization options. Millenials would love this. All about individuality. This will probably have to be quite a few years out but I'm talking really like a cornucopia of boutique body mods, colors, stitching, refrigerators, you know

 

[oneday]

What is the positive spin for this?

Tesla doesn’t need the money.

 

[MXWing]

Tesla doesn’t need the money.

Tesla saving money is my interpretation.

Model 3 owners going ape *sugar* and freaking out. Trying to explain the completely obvious strategy but of course those SA asshats are going to try and FUD it to oblivion.

Tesla offering FSD refits for 3000-5000 is a mistake.

Tesla has made many product offering mistakes that they took away.

60D software batteries. Removed.
Bio defense independent of PUP package. Removed.
85PL retrofit. Removed.
Tow kit retrofit. Removed.
Ventilated seats. Removed.
Active spoilers. Removed.

FSD refits at a discount. Removed.

I’m sure I’ve missed other examples but this should be clear enough that the removal
of retrofit FSD option is for the betterment of Tesla and consumers for the long run.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think there is a good chance the mid range Model 3 will soon be sold out. Think how many orders they will get from California alone. It's literally a $35k car for many California residents because of federal and state rebates. On top of that they have $3.8 gasoline price. On top of that they get the premium interior package included. This package is a must have for the total Model 3 experience. I guess those who wait will regret.

 

[sub]

so we could have S3X.

First you claim you own a Tesla and now you’re married and think you can have S3X? I’ve seen enough, ignored.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla was always going to refit the FSD hardware. They started developing their own AI chip 3 years ago, way before the M3 launch. You don't think Elon was fully prepared to replace their entire fleet with their own chip? I never understood why they would include a very expensive Nvidia chip when it's not really needed. Perhaps the chip is needed for enhanced auto pilot? Or maybe just to collect some data? I was always confused about Elon's decision to put in hardware for the car that's not up to his specs and he knew it too.

 

[M3Rider]

What is the positive spin for this?

Positive spin is that chip replacement is not free, they'll recover some money on the replacement in ~6 months.

 

[larmor]

What is the positive spin for this?

They will replace out all the older chips/cpus and collect them to mine bitcoin...

 

[Buckminster]

What is the positive spin for this?

Elon tweeted this earlier this week:
The FSD upgrade is the Tesla computer with our NN chip

It seems that no FSD features will be introduced ahead of the chip. My expectation was that FSD would be introduced feature by feature. I'm guessing by removing the FSD upgrade now he is building up to a "mic drop" moment in Feb:
Here is the 35k car and btw if you give us 45k you can sleep on the way to work. It works now...
As long as he doesn't pre-announce his dream, I'm happy for him to have the stre...etch target.
Either way, the positive spin is that the re-introduction of FSD option will be massive news in part due to a simpler story than yesterday's:
You can pay now or pay more later, but it doesn't work yet and we will have to upgrade you with neural thingamajig...

 

[Buckminster]

Another angle on FSD removal (positive spin) is that Tesla can charge more for the upgrade of cars from now on as the post purchase upgrade is no longer mentioned. Owners will gladly pay 10 or even 20k more if they can make it back in a year on Tesla Network. If Elon is truly bullish on FSD, that is by far the best financial option.

 

[Buckminster]

Regarding the market action thread being overtaken by "gossip", I have a few random points:
I have been guilty.
I have been annoyed by it.
I have tried going elsewhere (and continue to) but you get so little back and forth discussion, it leaves you with a hollow feeling in your heart.
General discussion has had 1 post in 24 hrs...
There are many great specific threads that are not polluted and we want to keep them that way.
What do we really mean by market action anyway? We can all see that the SP just went up. Lemur/lemr build up and reality affects the SP more than Munro proving that we are all investment oracles for instance.
My mitigation is that when catching up, I usually only read posts with 2+ positive emojis.