TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[j0hn]

max pain is 330? , what are the odds we will end up there ?

looks like 100% .... would rather have seen 350 though.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The other thing is that Tesla is de-emphasizing AC induction motors as well, only using one on the front of the Model 3.

What about Davidson?

In reality, though, I don't feel like launching a budget brand is actually necessary here, given the way automakers are going lately, even in the US, it'd just confuse people to try to launch another brand, and I feel like it's easier for a luxury brand to move downmarket (Mercedes hasn't diluted their American brand by having Mercedes-branded Sprinters, like they were afraid of, as an example), than it is for a mainstream brand to move upmarket (the Volkswagen Phaeton was a total failure in the US, and not an amazing success in Europe).

Would be a good name (especially on the "easy for Americans" metric and the "relevance to tech Tesla uses" metric), but again likely to run afoul of trademarks like Ferraris would (Harley-Davidson). If not for that, might actually have been one of the best options.

However, I do agree that a sub-brand isn't likely needed or desirable. It's just fun to try and find something on-theme, palatable to a wide enough audience, and available.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Finally I've found this from August. Not sure how the FBI would expect anything else unless they have proof Tesla deliberately lied.

Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production | Reuters

Yeah I'm left wondering that if lawyers can't dress up a decent case what is the difference that the DOJ is *still* pursuing? Perhaps they just theoretically have more easy access to the evidence (forcing interviews, asking for information without subpoena, etc.)

 

[STARR X]

And so it begins: within 3 years I expect it not just to be "cool" to own a Tesla, but I also expect a significant negative social stigma to be attached not just to owning diesel cars like today, but to all ICE vehicles. (At least in Europe, which is dominantly urban.)

This will start a feedback loop:

• The density of gas stations will start to decline in cities, eroding the "easy to refuel" advantage of ICE cars and increasing the "gas station detour distance", cost and inconvenience.
• Wealthier communities will start banning petrol cars once most residents have EVs.
• The YouTube generation already adores Teslas - once they start buying cars ...
  
• This will attach not just stigma but low social status to those who are still owning ICE vehicles.

It could quickly snowball from there.

Yes, it is apparent that China & Europe will go electric before the USA. It makes me sick that the USA does not have the political will to do the right thing. And obviously, business (outside of Tesla) does not have the will either. This lack of a quick transformation will make the USA a second rate country, if we aren't there already.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Ford, VW are in talks to broaden their alliance

They are buying some time.
I would expect alliance with new comers if they are serious to survive.

I think it is more likely that Ford would put some of its small and mid sized cars outside of NA on VW's platform. Possibly even MEB for future EVs. I don't think Ford has a compelling EV roadmap (or any) right now and if they scrap everything but the trucks, their future European lien-up will now be alone, having to invest in new platforms, architectures, engines for a relatively low volume business. It's Opel all over again. Probably with the same outcome down the line.

I would not be entirely surprised if Ford slowly becomes a de facto subsidiary of VW, if they end up having to get help from VW and don't bring EV knowledge in house. Assuming they don't simply fail in the next 10 years.

 

[Tslynk67]

So here I am, at a stand up comedy show (Jimmy Carr), having a great time, laughingstocks my shiny ass off, keeping my eye on the SP via my watch, knocking on the door of 340. Next time I look it's, what 316, like WTAF? Realised something had happened, but couldn't look until after the gig.

Without reading the last 20 pages, I guess many are going to say the same as me - total manipulation. A hit piece based on "people familiar with something, nothing new, but perfectly timed to stop the rapidly climbing SP in its tracks.

My earlier call of 347 was on the way if it wasn't for this. Makes me wonder if some big short seller didn't pick up the phone to get a more favourable closure price.

It fecking stinks! Why don't the FBI go after these criminals? GRRRRR!!!!!!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Funny what they say in public, when they're also part of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers which is lobbying to kill the CARB ZEV mandate (and successfully lobbied to rollback EPA standards).

Hedging their bets : try to kill mandates, and if that fails, try to get an overriding federal mandate that is more lax and probably also helps cover their costs. If both happen (CARB dies, lax / lucrative federal mandate), best of both worlds for GM.

 

[ZachF]

Would be a good name (especially on the "easy for Americans" metric and the "relevance to tech Tesla uses" metric), but again likely to run afoul of trademarks like Ferraris would (Harley-Davidson). If not for that, might actually have been one of the best options.

However, I do agree that a sub-brand isn't likely needed or desirable. It's just fun to try and find something on-theme, palatable to a wide enough audience, and available.

Perhaps Tesla could make a performance subdivision though of it's brand (like Mercedes with AMG)

Tesla Special Circumstances?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Delicious day. Bloodbath confirmed for next week. Can't wait!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Very good points.

The last time Tesla had GROUNBREAKING
results was Elon’s tweet from April 1, 2013. TSLA rose 11% the next day (compared to 9% on Thursday) but gained 50% over the month and 400% over the next several months.

News takes time to percolate.

Cake is in the oven. You’ll know when it (and the shorts) are done.

Cake is in the oven? But it's a lie! It's always a lie! Nooooo...!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, Washington State University needs to be stopped before they kill us all with their poorly-concealed grape bioweapons programme!

Wall Street Urinal.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

lmao Elon is having a hell of a time: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[anon]

If Elon's production folks were telling him it was impossible but he didn't believe them and kept saying it, then it's murkier. It's a judgement call on whether Elon believed was he was saying.

Unfortunately this could be a problem - even though I don't believe he was lying and think he would probably win in court, the DoJ might like to have a go anyway because it is murky. In this case, for a few months it won't really matter whether he wins in the end or not - the share price will be crushed, suppliers might get cold feet, his work schedule could be interrupted or restricted (perhaps even no foreign travel? I don't know exactly how this kind of thing works), etc.

 

[printf42]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon tweeting short shorts coming again.
Did someone from Tesla review this tweet before he send?
I mean this is material information to Tesla. We all know how fat apparel margins can be. And god knows how many of these they would sell.



Oh, just in case SEC reads here, Am just kidding.

 

[KarenRei]

Oh well, at least Karen got her 331... !

And ~$336 But not my ~$341 or higher.

 

[omarsultan]

Kind of like saying production will "ramp up" "soon"?

It's not always possible or appropriate to speak in full, specific detail. That goes for reporters as well as CEOs. When you don't have perfect knowledge, you report what you honestly can, to your readers or to your stockholders.

Not the same thing. I believe Musk spoke based on the best info he had at the time. He laid out goals (not commitments) for volumes and target dates, was up front that this was going to be production hell and a learning exercise for everyone and had the whole thing wrapped in a safe harbor statement.

This entire article is trying to represent more substance than actually it actually contains.

 

[phil0909]

Unfortunately this could be a problem - even though I don't believe he was lying and think he would probably win in court, the DoJ might like to have a go anyway because it is murky. In this case, for a few months it won't really matter whether he wins in the end or not - the share price will be crushed, suppliers might get cold feet, his work schedule could be interrupted or restricted (perhaps even no foreign travel? I don't know exactly how this kind of thing works), etc.

No, DOJ does not pursue murky in court. That just makes them look bad. If they can't prove it, they will not prosecute.

 

[Driver Dave]

Big WSJ dip, then slow climb out, as if the market is saying:

"Sorry Journal, we don't believe you."

 

[ZachF]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon tweeting short shorts coming again.
Did someone from Tesla review this tweet before he send?
I mean this is material information to Tesla. We all know how fat apparel margins can be. And god knows how many of these they would sell.



Oh, just in case SEC reads here, Am just kidding.

Something interesting I was mulling: What if the Short Shorts were used to fund a superbowl commercial?

EDIT: Or Tesla funded some advertising with merch sales... Then it would essentially be funded by fans who want to advertise the brand.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

No, DOJ does not pursue murky in court. That just makes them look bad. If they can't prove it, they will not prosecute.

Yeah in a criminal case, they don't just shoot wildly. They have to expect winning because of the costs.

I'd prefer to know what the heck they could actually accomplish if they won though.