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Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…..

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i agree customer service can be poor and that is its weakness for sure. It seems most issues with thier cars are minor ones and they just dont have enough SC locally to meet the demand.
What we do is make friendships with service manager and the service guy assigned to us and go see them personally when we have an issue and have them set up a date to bring it in. Service has not been bad for us at all..minor stuff...and we wont leave it overnight so we try to arrange it to be same day. And i wait for it in the waiting room all day if needed as i can work from there with my laptop
 
Yeah, so you're telling me BYD can make batteries faster than it can put it into cars? Or is it more profitable for them to sell the battery than to make cars or any other finished products requiring batteries (Power Wall, MegaPack, Hybrids, or BEVs)?

I do not have insights into what is a more profitable endeavor for BYD. A comment was made about Tesla being the EV leader for the foreseeable future. I provided a fact about a competitor (BYD) and also a fairly reasonable prediction for 2023 (I don't know that I buy it, but I can at least see the math of the people who do) and you responded with a question about batteries for some reason. I replied with a fact about BYD supplying Tesla with batteries and now you're coming across quite defensive about BYD's profitability with their batteries?

Maybe I'm just not understanding your line of questioning, I don't know. If you're that concerned about BYD's profitability and battery usage you can certainly Google it.
 
I do not have insights into what is a more profitable endeavor for BYD. A comment was made about Tesla being the EV leader for the foreseeable future. I provided a fact about a competitor (BYD) and also a fairly reasonable prediction for 2023 (I don't know that I buy it, but I can at least see the math of the people who do) and you responded with a question about batteries for some reason. I replied with a fact about BYD supplying Tesla with batteries and now you're coming across quite defensive about BYD's profitability with their batteries?

Maybe I'm just not understanding your line of questioning, I don't know. If you're that concerned about BYD's profitability and battery usage you can certainly Google it.
Oh, sorry. I forgot this is the internet.



/s
 

BYD is outselling Tesla 3-to-1 in China so far in 2023 and they've also started shipping to Europe.


In January, BYD sales of NEVs (a term for pure EVs + PHEV in China) reached 151,341, up 62% from January 2022. The sales of passenger cars are 150,164, and the rest are buses and trucks. Among them, the sales of pure EVs reached 71,338 in January, up 53% year on year, accounting for 47.5%; The sales of PHEVs reached 78,826 in January, up 69% on the year, accounting for 52.5%. BYD sold 10,409 EVs overseas in January.

BYD did over 1.86m in NEV sales in FY2022 at a roughly 51% PHEV / 49% BEV split. If they grow at 62% for the year (as they did in January, YoY), that would put their 2023 unit sales at over 3m. And at a 50/50 split, that'd obviously be around 1.5 BEVs and hot on Tesla's tail.


BYD to begin construction of 543 MWh energy storage system in Las Vegas in Q2​


Not super familiar with all of the ins and outs of BYD, but from a competitor perspective, I think they are the closest to Tesla and may catch them in BEV unit volume alone in 2023 or 2024.
 
I got an answer to the above part. per page 27 of http://www.jama.or.jp/english/reports/docs/MIoJ2022_e.pdf, global motor vehicle production excluding motorcycles were these numbers:
2019: 92.183 million
2020: 77.711 million
2021: 80.145 million

http://www.jama.or.jp/english/reports/docs/MIoJ2021_e.pdf page 28 adds another data point:
2018: 96.869 million

At EV industry I posted some numbers about Japan. I posted a bit more info at Japanese EV market - Page 2 - My Nissan Leaf Forum. Hint/preview: In 2021 in Japan, new BEVs made up 0.5% out of 4.45 million new vehicles. Non-plugin hybrids made up about 32%. PHEVs were about 0.51%.

If you look at page 17 of http://www.jama.or.jp/english/reports/docs/MIoJ2022_e.pdf, new BEV sales hit their peak in Japan in 2018 at 26.5K units sold in a year. They have not returned to that record yet.
Here's another one of many countries with very low EV penetration.


EVs made up just 0.5% of domestic auto sales last year, according to Mexico's Auto Industry Association AMIA, far below the U.S. percentage of 5.8%, according to research firm Motor Intelligence. If hybrids are added, Mexico reaches 4.7%.

"There are still a number of issues that need resolving in Mexico before there's a massive influx of electric cars," said Mario Hernandez, KPMG's lead manufacturing partner in Mexico.

Hernandez said drawbacks included a lack of subsidies for buyers, high costs for installing charging devices at homes and a shortage of public charging stations, vital for longer journeys. Unlike other countries, Mexico has not yet agreed on a plan to phase out gasoline-powered vehicles, he added.

Nearly 1.1 million new cars in total were sold in Mexico last year. Just 5,600 of those were EVs, much less than the 8,400 sold in Latin America's biggest car market, Brazil.
...
Tesla's cheapest model, costing some $55,000, plus the expense of a charger, means most Mexicans cannot afford an EV. Cheaper models like the Nissan Leaf go for more than $50,000 and even the two seater Zacua costs around 600,000 pesos ($31,767).

The typical Mexican worker makes $366 a month on average, according to official data. The statutory minimum wage guarantees a Mexican around $11 per day.
 
Big difference is that the Chinese Government is in support of BYD and many other local manufacturers of EV.
In the US, Tesla has a uphill battle. Biden only wants to support Union Labor businesses. They shut Tesla down during Covid, while China allowed BYD to continue producing. China provides tremendous loan support to BYD, while USA is rapidly increasing interest rates. China provides easy and inexpensive land, while in USA there is a constant drumbeat from environmentalist to find one way after another to stop the building of factories.

Lots of reasons for why China production has thrived, while USA production faces headwinds.

In spite of all this, Tesla has become, by far, the American leader in EV innovation. Without the success of Tesla, GM, Ford or Stelantis would not be venturing into the EV field.
 
Here's yet another country where I suspect substantial EV adoption will face huge headwinds.

I'd read South Africa fights to keep phone networks up as lights go out and then found stuff ilke these citing up to 10 to 12 hour/day blackouts:
 
Here's yet another country where I suspect substantial EV adoption will face huge headwinds.

I'd read South Africa fights to keep phone networks up as lights go out and then found stuff ilke these citing up to 10 to 12 hour/day blackouts:
Clearly, South Africa's biggest contribution to EV adoption was to drive one of their young nerds to immigrate to the US in desperation so that he could fulfill his many ambitions.
Domestically, they will adopt EVs just like they adopt other things - in the secondary or tertiary markets, after the 1st world has commoditized them and thrown them out as used materials.
 
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Here's yet another country where I suspect substantial EV adoption will face huge headwinds.

I'd read South Africa fights to keep phone networks up as lights go out and then found stuff ilke these citing up to 10 to 12 hour/day blackouts...

In most of Africa, that seems to be considered "good" service.

About five years ago, a fellow from Poland drove a 30 kWh Leaf from South Africa to Morocco. Took nearly three months. He recently put up a video series documenting the trip. In a lot of places, the ONLY time there was power was from like 6 PM to midnight. He even had to carry some gasoline along with him - so he could offer it for use in peoples generators. Here is his youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/@ArkadyFiedler3
 
Clearly, South Africa's biggest contribution to EV adoption was to drive one of their young nerds to immigrate to the US in desperation so that he could fulfill his many ambitions.
Domestically, they will adopt EVs just like they adopt other things - in the secondary or tertiary markets, after the 1st world has commoditized them and thrown them out as used materials.
But SA is smaller, much less important that countries like China, USA, and Europe where 99.9 % of cars are used.
There needs build up of SA grid of course, that should start now (PV is likely easiest and fastest to start, with wind next, and nuclear long term.)
 

BYD is outselling Tesla 3-to-1 in China so far in 2023 and they've also started shipping to Europe.

......

Not super familiar with all of the ins and outs of BYD, but from a competitor perspective, I think they are the closest to Tesla and may catch them in BEV unit volume alone in 2023 or 2024.
Except their cars are exploding.

If this report is credible, 7 BVD cars a day are catching fire, occasionally exploding.



 
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“A better way of looking at electric vehicle fires is to compare the number of fires per 100,000 vehicles sold. Researchers from insurance deal site Auto Insurance EZ compiled sales and accident data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the National Transportation Safety Board. The site found that hybrid vehicles had the most fires per 100,000 sales at 3474.5. There were 1529.9 fires per 100k for gas vehicles and just 25.1 fires per 100k sales for electric vehicles.”